🌍 The geopolitics of Hurricane Melissa
Plus: Calling all spies in Miami!
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Today’s briefing: |
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Good morning Intriguer. While we often focus on the classic diplomacy of foreign service officers swilling champagne between salmon-and-dill-pikelets at Qumar’s national day reception, it’s the consular officers who are often an embassy’s unsung heroes, spending more time in hospitals, prisons, and morgues than galleries.
It’s the type of work that demands gallows humour, which is why many consular services quietly circulate lists of the wildest requests they receive from their citizens abroad: everything from “please buy me a lottery ticket” and “I need you to walk my dog back home”, through to “where can I get good bacon” and “let me come watch the Super Bowl”.
Other compatriots have often seemingly just watched too many Bourne movies, expecting some ripped government official to unleash the Krav Maga and break them out of jail.
In short, citizens often confuse ‘consular’ with ‘concierge’, or ‘assistance’ with ‘impunity’, fuelling a broader debate around when governments should and shouldn’t get involved.
Anyway, I mention all this by way of prologue to today’s briefing, which offers some thoughts on the geopolitics of natural disasters as Hurricane Melissa hits the Caribbean.
Quote of the day
“Although climate change will have serious consequences […], it will not lead to humanity’s demise.”
That’s a quote from Bill Gates, whose latest memo argues that our world’s near-term emissions goals shouldn’t come at the expense of tackling poverty and disease.
Hurricane watch
Folks across Jamaica are just starting to emerge from shelter after the Cat-5 Hurricane Melissa barrelled into the island with winds of up to 282km/h (175mph).
It’s the third-worst hurricane to hit the Caribbean after Wilma (2005) and Gilbert (1988), and it’s now ploughing into Cuba as a Category-4. So as details become clearer (including several tragic deaths), we wanted to offer some insights into how embassies and capitals approach these kinds of disasters, realistically all starting with…
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Step 1: Help your staff
You don’t always get advance warning, so embassies typically run emergency drills every year to test their back-up generators, satellite links, radio comms, water/food supplies, etc.
If you do get a warning, embassies will often evacuate non-essential staff and families.
In addition to the obvious welfare concerns, this reduces the burden on local authorities, while also enabling remaining embassy staff to focus on doing their job, which gets us to…
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Step 2: Help your nationals
Prevention is better than cure, so the best way to help your fellow citizens is often just to push them home before disaster hits. To that end, embassies have put out some remarkably stark “leave now” warnings this week, with tourists dutifully jamming the exits.
But many still typically remain for all kinds of reasons: no seats, no insurance, no money, no clue, or even no flights (airlines started cancelling services earlier this week). Jamaican authorities say there were still 25,000 tourists on the island when Melissa hit.
For those left, capitals will typically set up a hotline to handle the worried families back home (to avoid the embassy getting swamped), while blasting guidance out if (big if) comms are still working, urging folks to find shelter and follow the local authorities.
Then once the situation stabilises, embassy staff will often spend the bulk of their time out in evacuation centres, hospitals, and (yes) morgues, helping connect citizens with their families, their insurance providers, their airlines and (in extreme cases) repatriation flights.
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Step 3: Help your hosts
In parallel (if not in advance), HQs back home will be coordinating any help they can offer hosts (Jamaica in this case), subject to embassy advice from the ground — it’s a delicate balance between wanting to help, but not wanting to further overwhelm local authorities.
The best approach is often to present a ‘menu’ of ways you can assist, whether engineers to repair infrastructure, doctors to treat patients, C-130s to deliver food and water, search & rescue teams to help find survivors, etc. The local authorities then pick what they need.
Intrigue’s Take
While nothing unites humanity like a slap from Mother Nature, the reality is capitals are still quietly but acutely mindful of the geopolitics at play. Governments want to both…
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i) project their nation as a generous, capable, and dependable partner (the US and China each maintain military hospital ships for disaster relief), and
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ii) build goodwill with key decision-makers, including not just political elites but also the generals who often lead local responses.
That’s because these days, messaging is key: some, like Russia, have a record of faking or amplifying online edge-lords to allege (say) defects in aid, or a disparity between DC’s help for foreigners versus helping Americans back home. Any wealthy country can and should do both, but this criticism is often an attempt to deflect from Putin doing neither, while also eroding a) domestic trust in DC, and b) global trust in the US.
Meanwhile, Colombia’s President Petro just gave us another timely example, describing Hurricane Melissa as “saving the Caribbean” 🤔 — it’s a pretty indelicate nod to the fact that, while a Cat-5 storm leaves a trail of death and destruction, it also delays any US military action against Venezuela’s Maduro regime or alleged narco-boats in the area.
So it’ll be interesting to see what role the US naval build-up now plays in any disaster response, as the reality is it can leave a lasting footprint: for example, Indonesia’s then leader (Yudhoyono) was famously struck by the scale and speed of Australia’s help after the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami, shaping his perception of a more benevolent neighbour.
But it can also work the other way: Myanmar’s junta has famously blocked some aid for fear of losing its grip, gutting its own credibility in the process. And while Japanese rescue groups were among the first foreign aid teams to enter Sichuan after China’s 2008 quake left 90,000 dead, increasingly toxic Tokyo-Beijing ties might’ve explained why Xi then said “no thanks” to Japan after China’s 2013 quake. A government worried about its own legitimacy might think twice before relying on any help from abroad, let alone from a top rival.
Sound even smarter:
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If you’d like to help, NGOs like Water Mission are focused on helping rebuild local water supplies, which are often the first services to collapse in a hurricane.
Meanwhile, elsewhere…
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🇮🇱 ISRAEL — Wither, ceasefire? |
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🇺🇿 UZBEKISTAN — Just dropping by. Comment: Why this sudden US focus on Central Asia? It’s likely a) a rush to diversify away from over-reliance on China’s critical minerals, and b) a broader play in a region typically dominated by US rivals like China and Russia (several ‘Stans have been pretty open about their desire to balance a weakened and volatile Russia). |
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🇳🇱 NETHERLANDS — Another photo finish. Comment: This instability is partly the result of parties refusing to partner with immigration / Islam critic Geert Wilders. He’s still polling strongly, though not enough to win outright, so the outcome might depend on which parliamentary alliances emerge. |
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🇳🇿 NEW ZEALAND — Counting heads. Comment: Intriguers will recall New Zealand just recruited a Swede to lead the central bank — she inherits an organisation widely panned by Kiwi executives for opening the monetary spigot too wide for too long during Covid, so now has the unenviable task of rebuilding morale on the inside and credibility on the outside. |
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🇧🇷 BRAZIL — Shootouts grip Rio. |
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🇦🇴 ANGOLA — Up for grabs. Comment: This is more than just a classic M&A story — take a look at those mining names, whether De Beers or Anglo American, which hint at the extractive sector’s historic links with colonial powers. So for some, this is more about a handover that’s been centuries in the making. And it’s taking place against the backdrop of a structural decline in the diamond industry, partly due to the emergence of synthetic alternatives. |
Extra Intrigue
The Intrigue jobs board 💼
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Specialist, Intelligence Analyst @ FIFA World Cup 2026 in Miami
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Head of Communication @ European Free Trade Association in Brussels
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Manager, International Affairs @ Airlines for America in Washington, D.C.
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Arbitration, Internship @ International Chamber of Commerce in Abu Dhabi
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Route of the day
Credits: South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs
South Korea and Japan are celebrating 60 years of diplomatic relations, which is a big deal when you recall their toxic history. So they’ve drummed up a few ways to commemorate.
Our favourite (pictured above) involves cyclists from both nations jointly following the Joseon Tongsinsa route (🇰🇷), when Korea’s Joseon dynasty would send its envoys to Edo era Japan via Korea’s Chungju, Mungyeong, and Yeongcheon, then on to the port city of Busan (of zombie-train fame), before departing by boat to Japan’s Kyoto or Osaka.
Japan’s ambassador to South Korea joined Korean officials in farewelling the above bikers on Monday, with the journey set to take 17 days.
Today’s poll
Do you think the US should ever accept disaster relief from China (and vice versa)? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think ASEAN is back?
🔥 Yep, Southeast Asia is so hot right now (50%)
⛔ Nope, it still can't agree (48%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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🔥 R.B: “Being right underneath the soft underbelly of China, ASEAN nations are poised to increase their trade with China even more than in the past. Cooperation, cooperation, cooperation – that's been the key for ASEAN nations.”
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✍️ P.C: “All international organizations have value. It’s just their importance to others that ebbs and flows.”
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⛔ D.S: “Maybe I am biased (Malaysian here) but Southeast Asia is on track to becoming one of the largest regions (pop. & economy) in the world, and ASEAN’s reinvigoration can only spell good things.”