Plus: Tantrum of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ The geopolitics of tourism |
2️⃣ Why Hong Kongers are googling ‘Bloomberg’ |
3️⃣ Tantrum of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Early in my diplomatic career, I was a tad excited to find out I was going to a meeting with the WTO. I was then a tad confused to learn there are two WTOs: the WTO I thought I was meeting was the World Trade Organization in Geneva.
But the meeting I was actually attending was with the other, smaller one: the World Tourism Organization, based in Madrid. And let me tell you, dear Intriguer: for an industry that’s meant to be focused on delivering good times, that tourism meeting among 20 or so governments somehow got very heated.
Today’s briefing on the geopolitics of tourism looks at just some of the reasons why.
Ukraine claims 1,000km of Russia.
Ukraine’s top military commander has claimed his forces now control 1,000 sqare km (380mi) of Russian territory, a week after first mounting a surprise counter-offensive over the border. Meanwhile, the blame game continues in Moscow, where President Putin is threatening a tough response.
Trump and Musk go live.
Following his 2021 ban from the platform, Donald Trump has now returned to X (née Twitter) via a two hour-long interview with its owner, Elon Musk. Trump recounts his assassination attempt; reiterates his mass deportation plan; and vows to push responsibility for education back to the states. Btw – don’t miss our very own Election Intrigue for a weekly briefing on what the US elections mean for the world!
UK unemployment drops, pay growth slows.
The UK’s unemployment rate has dropped unexpectedly from 4.4% to 4.2%, bucking expectations of a rise. Meanwhile, wages have grown at their slowest pace in two years, likely reassuring the central bank that inflation pressures are easing. The pound sterling has strengthened on the news, while investors see a one-in-three chance of a UK rate cut in September.
Greece fights wildfires.
Authorities have evacuated thousands of residents as massive wildfires reach the outer suburbs of Athens, with flames up to 25 metres (80 feet) high. The Greek government has requested help from the EU, with France already committing 180 firefighters, 55 trucks, and a helicopter.
China releases Taiwanese fishermen.
For the second time in a week, China has released fishermen detained last month while working on Taiwanese boats. Some are taking this as a sign the two can still address minor disputes. But lest you get too hopeful, on the very same day, China sent 16 fighter jets over the median line towards Taiwan.
TOP STORY
The geopolitics of tourism
Oh the dog days of the northern summer — out-of-office messages on, vacation mode activated, and noise-cancelling earphones packed. Once you switch into destination bliss, vacationers expect it to be good times galore, right?
Instead, some vacationers are being met with frustrated locals:
-
In Barcelona (🇪🇸), protesters sprayed visitors with water guns last month, shouting “tourists go home” and “Barcelona is not for sale”, and
-
That’s after (for example) locals in Hallstatt (🇦🇹) and Fujikawaguchiko (🇯🇵) legit erected anti-selfie barriers to fend off the tourist hordes.
How’d we get here?
It actually makes for a fun geopolitical journey through modern history:
-
Passenger transport got modern tourism going from the 1800s
-
The idealistic League of Nations then standardised passports in the 1920s
-
Air travel started getting more mainstream from the 1950s
-
China and other major destinations started opening up from the 1970s
-
And the internet age then hit the accelerator from the 1990s.
There’ve been dips along the way – the 1970s energy crisis, the ‘war on terror’, plus recessions and pandemics – but tourism’s overall trajectory has been from a niche activity for the hyper rich to one for the masses today. And it’s made the global travel industry a $10T machine, now returning to pre-Covid levels.
Against that backdrop, sure, many cash-strapped and debt-laden governments have seen tourism as a way to drive growth, employment, and development. And that rush is contributing to these bouts of local irritation and resentment.
But many governments are also now using tourism in some intriguing ways:
-
We’re still seeing ‘coercive tourism’ – the clearest example is China, which exercises a high degree of control over its citizens, who also make up the world’s largest outbound tourist market. In practice, this has meant restricting Chinese tourism to punish (say) Sweden for restricting market access for China’s tech firms; South Korea for hosting a US missile defence system; or tiny Palau for enjoying warm ties with Taiwan.
-
Tourism also pops up in border disputes: it’s no coincidence, for example, that the very same year (2016) an international court rejected China’s claims to 90% of the South China Sea, two cruise lines suddenly started ferrying tourists from the mainland to the disputed waterways, to reiterate and normalise Beijing’s presence and control there.
-
And tourism also crosses paths with independence movements – it’s no coincidence that some of the anti-tourist sentiment in (for example) Spain has popped up in regions with independence movements, like the Canaries, Catalonia, or the Basque Country. There’s a range of factors at play, but one is the feared impacts of tourism on local identity.
But don’t let us put you off booking that flight, dear Intriguer. Take heart knowing that tourism can also help reconcile foes. An example playing out right now is in South Korea, where a ‘no Japan’ movement saw a crash in visits to Korea’s former coloniser (Japan) back in 2019.
But here we are, a couple of historic leader summits later, and Koreans are now Japan’s largest source of visitors again, smashing monthly records. They even maxed out holiday packages to Japan during Korea’s independence weekend, marking its independence movement… against Japan.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
When you think about it, tourism oozes geopolitics, right? It’s the wholesale movement of citizens around the world, all colliding with different identities, philosophies, and political systems.
And you can see that in the way the international community grapples with tourism, too. Take a look at the World Tourism Organization’s Global Code of Ethics, which captures some of the sector’s noble aims, while in the process implying the existence of a darker side.
Specifically, the Code vows to contribute to “economic development, international understanding, peace, prosperity and universal respect for, and observance of, human rights and fundamental freedoms”. And interestingly, it aims to “pay particular attention to the interests of the developing countries”.
Anyway, it’s a tough industry facing some valid criticism, but as former diplomats, we can’t help but sympathise with what Mark Twain wrote after visiting Europe: “Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth”.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
-
🇨🇳 China: Remember last year when critical undersea gas and communication links between Finland and Estonia were severed mysteriously? Well according to the South China Morning Post, Beijing has now admitted that the chief suspect (a China-owned container ship) sliced the links with its anchor ‘by accident’ during a strong storm.
-
🇪🇺 EU: The EU’s disease prevention and control agency has declared that West Nile virus season is now in ‘full swing’ across the continent, with the mosquito-born illness already taking eight lives. Researchers say a combination of climate change and higher population density are making the virus more of a risk these days.
-
🇳🇨 New Caledonia: Authorities have extended to this Friday the curfew in the French Pacific Island territory of New Caledonia, first imposed after pro-independence unrest broke out in May. While the political disputes persist, calm now seems to be returning, with the main road to the island’s international airport now fully navigable again.
-
🇻🇪 Venezuela: International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutors have said they’re “actively monitoring” events in Venezuela, where forces loyal to autocrat Nicolás Maduro have now detained around 2,000 protestors after last month’s sham elections. The ICC is already investigating the repression that followed Venezuela’s elections in 2017.
-
🇬🇳 Guinea: The West African country’s ruling junta has published a new draft constitution for a vote later this year, aimed at paving the way back to democracy. The draft imposes a strict two-term limit on leaders, but seems to leave open the door for a candidacy by the country’s current leader, who seized power via a coup in 2021.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
What the world’s been googling lately
-
🇹🇿 Folks in Tanzania looked up ‘Tundu Lissu’, after authorities arrested (then released) the prominent opposition figure, a year after the president promised to ease political restrictions.
-
🇦🇺 Australians googled ‘Nancy Pelosi’ after the influential US lawmaker gave an interview on Australian TV, disputing a 1990s-era former prime minister’s dismissive views on Taiwan’s autonomy.
-
And 🇭🇰 Hong Kongers searched for ‘Bloomberg’, after the media outlet reported that foreign investors pulled a record amount of money from China last quarter, reflecting pessimism towards the world’s second-largest economy.
TANTRUM OF THE DAY
Leopoldo Guadalupe Michel Díaz
We don’t often get a peek beyond the embassy walls. But every now and then, the truth is scandalous enough to break out.
Mexico is now gripped by one example: footage has leaked from Mexico’s consulate in Shanghai showing a veteran diplomat, Leopoldo Guadalupe Michel Díaz, hurling insults while storming aggressively through the post. The public response has been so heated, Mexico’s foreign ministry has now recalled him.
The lesson? Yes, diplomats get immunity from local government laws, but there’s no immunity from your own HQ if you’re prancing around like a pendejo.
DAILY POLL
What's your key factor when deciding where to travel? |
Yesterday’s poll: What do you think this Kursk incursion means?
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🤷 Nothing – Russia will push it back, and the war will continue (32%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🧱 It's another crack in Putin's aura, leading to his eventual downfall (45%)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💥 It'll backfire, exposing those troops to more risk while thinning Ukraine's lines elsewhere (18%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (5%)
Your two cents:
-
🧱 R.H: “For Ukraine it is already a win… even if they don't hold the territory nearly as significant as Prigozhin's little mutiny.”
-
🤷 K.S: “Ukraine must show progress to its investors here in the West.”
-
💥 E.D: “Ukraine troops are already laid so thin, this'll make the already held positions even thinner.”
-
🧱 S.B.S: “With this offensive Ukraine tightens the knot of how sustainable this war continuing can be for the Russians.”
-
✍️ S.P: “For an underdog, it’s a decisive action which demonstrates the ability to inflict losses on the enemy.”
Was this forwarded to you? We're a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 100k+ leaders each day. It’s free to subscribe.