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Hi Intriguer. Hands up if you think last weekโs interim ruling by the ICJ will end the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza.
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๐ฆ
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Yeah, me neither. But the power of international law has always been more in its political symbolism.
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Keep that in mind as you read todayโs lead story on two different but no less important ICJ cases about Russia and Ukraine.ย
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– John Fowler, Co-Founder
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Was this forwarded to you? We’re a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 85k+ leaders each day. Itโs free to subscribe.
TODAYโS NEWS
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Done deal. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbรกn has just lifted his veto on a ~$54B aid package for Ukraine, allowing EU leaders to give the green light after a delay of nearly two months. European Council President Charles Michel announced the deal, saying itโll provide long term stability to Ukraine.
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The Fed stays put. The S&P 500 fell by 1.6% on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.5%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell threw additional water on Wall Streetโs hopes by saying rates arenโt likely to be cut at the next meeting in March either.
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Iran pulls top officers out of Syria.ย Iranโs senior Revolutionary Guards in Syria have withdrawn after a series of recent Israeli attacksย killedย at least six of their members, according to a Reuters exclusive. Tehranโs decision looks partly dictated by its reluctance to be drawn into an all-out conflict with Israel.
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Tech CEOs grilled by Senate again. The CEOs of Meta, TikTok, Snapchat, Discord, and X (nรฉ Twitter) testified before the US Senate Judiciary Committee yesterday, fielding some tough questions on their efforts to keep children safe online. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg was most in the firing line, while TikTok head Shou Chew was again grilled on his companyโs links to China.
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Podesta to replace Kerry as climate envoy.ย White House senior adviser John Podesta will soon take over John Kerryโs responsibilities (but not his title) as climate envoy. Kerry announced his decision to step down to focus on Bidenโs re-election bid two weeks ago.
TOP STORY
The International Court of Justice considers Ukraine and Russia
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Unusually for the tweed-clad world of international law, three International Court of Justice (ICJ) cases are now capturing global attention. The first was Friday’s interim ruling on Israelโs alleged breaches of the Genocide Convention (which we wrote about here).
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Hereโs what you need to know about the other two (both Ukraine v Russia).
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But first, a quick fact: the ICJ can’t hear a dispute unless both countries agree. As odd as that sounds, it’s the reality of a world made up of sovereign states. The most common way countries โagreeโ to be sued is by signing treaties.
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So, Ukraine lodged the first case against Russia back in 2017 (ie, before Russia’s full-scale invasion), alleging Russia had breached two treaties.
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On the first, Ukraine claimed Russia was failing to stop terrorist financing of pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine. It also sought compensation for the damage those groups had caused (including the downing of flight MH17 in 2014).
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The ICJ agreed yesterday that Russia has failed to investigate terrorism financing, but it otherwise rejected Ukraine’s terrorist financing claims.
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The court said the treaty bans sending funds to terrorists – not arms, nor using those arms to down MH17. So the court couldnโt look at Russiaโs responsibility for MH17 (nor any duty to provide compensation).
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On the second treaty, Ukraine claimed Russia’s treatment of ethnic groups in occupied Crimea breached the treaty against racial discrimination.
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The court agreed Russia had breached the treaty by limiting Ukrainian language education in Crimea, but it otherwise rejected Ukraine’s claims.
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It found Russia’s treatment of the locals was due to their political opposition, not race; so it was outside the treatyโs (and courtโs) scope.
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Separately, the ICJ will speak tomorrow on Ukraineโs second case, which it lodged via the Genocide Convention two days after Russiaโs full invasion began in 2022.
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Ukraineโs argument isnโt that Russia is committing genocide; rather it’s arguing that Russia made false genocide claims against Ukraine to justify its invasion.
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And tomorrowโs ruling is just on whether the court can hear the case at all (a process which will then likely take years).
INTRIGUEโS TAKE
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As you digest these recent ICJ rulings, itโs hard to miss the idiosyncrasies: the courtโs rulings take years, are largely unenforceable, are often ignored, are limited to very specific topics, and are confined to very precise texts. To quote one bewildered Intriguer on all thisโฆ “how much are we paying these nerds?!“
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It’s an understandable (if amusingly worded) sentiment, and one the judges themselves know well. Just take a look at paragraph 201 of yesterdayโs ruling, where they emphasise that just because a court doesn’t have jurisdiction over alleged violations, this doesn’t mean those violations don’t exist.
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Arguably, itโs these same limitations that underpin the courtโs role: countries are more willing to submit to the ICJโs authority when that authority is limited. And it builds over time, as the law develops and evolves incrementally.
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Still, that’s all probably cold comfort for Ukraine right now.
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Also worth noting:
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Shortly after Ukraine lodged its genocide case, the ICJ issued an interim order for Russia to halt its invasion (an order Russia has flouted).
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A Dutch domestic court has convicted (in absentia) two Russians and a pro-Moscow Ukrainian for their role in the downing of MH17, which killed 298 people in 2014. The Netherlands and Ukraine have also sued Russia at the European Court of Human Rights over MH17.
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The International Criminal Court (ICC) has an open investigation into the Russo-Ukraine war, though neither Russia nor Ukraine recognise its authority. The ICC issued a warrant for Putinโs arrest last year.
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Talk To An Advisor You Can Trust, For Free
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Why do less than 32% of investors go to a financial advisor?
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Many reasons: Itโs difficult to know if you can trust them or if theyโre just shilling you expensive financial products.
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Not every advisor is the right fit for you, and finding the perfect one has always been the hardest part.ย
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That was before –ย today, thereโs Money Pickle, which matches you with top financial professionals through an easy, fast, and free process.
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Need second opinions on major decisions? Is it time to delegate your finances to someone you can trust? Their network of vetted advisors are ready to help.
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Third-party advisors at Money Pickle can even assist you in going over your investments, estate, or retirement planning, all through a convenient video call.ย
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREโฆ
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๐ฆ๐ฒย Armenia: Prime Minister Pashinyan has proposed a non-aggression pact with Azerbaijan in case of further delays in their peace process. The two countries have long fought over the contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which Azerbaijan seized in a lightning offensive last year.
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๐ท๐บย Russia: Local politician Boris Nadezhdin has submitted the required 100,000 signatures to run in Russiaโs presidential election in March, and is now waiting for the electoral authorityโs review. Heโs known for his criticism of Putin and has said heโll end the war in Ukraine in the (unlikely) event heโs elected.
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๐ฒ๐พย Malaysia: Sultan Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar from Johor state was sworn in for his five-year term as Malaysiaโs new king yesterday (Wednesday). Malaysia is considered the only monarchy operating on a rotating system.
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๐ป๐ชย Venezuela: The US has re-imposed sanctions on Venezuelaโs state-owned gold mining company and warns itโll do the same with the oil sector if the Maduro administration fails to hold free elections this year. The decision comes shortly after the countryโs highest court upheld an electoral ban on opposition leader Marรญa Corina Machado.
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๐ธ๐ดย Somalia: Somaliaโs intelligence services say theyโve taken down 20 Whatsapp groups allegedly operated by the jihadist movement al-Shabab. In an effort to disrupt the groupโs communication channels, the agency also disabled data services for approximately 2,500 phones.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Hereโs what people around the world googled yesterday
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๐ฉ๐ช German fans googled โAdeleโ after the singer announced sheโll take up a โrandomโ mini-residency in Munich this summer.ย
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๐น๐ผ Folks in Taiwan searched forย โ็ซๆณ้ข้ทโ (Legislative Yuan) to get the latest on the political drama as the legislature votes on a speaker.
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๐จ๐ญ And the Swiss looked up โNovartisโ after their countryโs pharmaceutical giant posted lower-than-expected Q4 earnings.ย ย
TODAY IN HISTORY
A protest against the military coup in Yangon, Myanmar, 15 February 2021. Credits: Reuters.ย
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On this day in 2021, the Burmese military toppled Myanmarโs democratically elected government in a coup. Since then, the country has sunk into economic and security chaos as regime forces attempt (so far unsuccessfully) to quash armed uprisings across the country.
DAILY POLL
If you had $1M to give to charity, which issue would you back? |
Yesterdayโs poll: Is it ever justifiable for the military to interfere in politics?
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๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ค Yes, drastic situations call for drastic measures (17%)
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๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ ๐ No, nothing good ever comes from military meddling (80%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Other (write in!) (3%)
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Your two cents:
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๐คย L.P: โIf a president loses an election and refuses to leave office, and then orchestrates a coup or insurrection, then the military should be called in to quell it.โ
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๐ M.V: โTrust me, I come from Argentina. Military dictatorships, because they were ‘the owners of the truth’, are part of our terrible history.โ
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๐ N.J: โDemocracy is far from perfect. But there is no basis to expect the military to be better. They have the gun so less to fear from the public.โ
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โ๏ธ K.F: โEvery nation’s military is already a political tool.โ