Plus: When Intriguers cross paths abroad
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Ecuador’s dramatic raid on Mexico’s embassy |
2️⃣ Milestone of the day |
3️⃣ Why you might want to avoid the Baltic Sea |
Hi Intriguer. I first visited Honduras just after a president (Zelaya) had been ousted in a coup and dumped in neighbouring Costa Rica.
Somehow, he then mysteriously re-emerged back inside Brazil’s embassy in Honduras, from where he kept rallying his supporters gathered out on the street. So the local military used loudspeakers to crank the hit song Two-legged rat by Mexican singer Paquita, and boy did they crank that tune all night long.
But nothing – nothing – could dislodge Zelaya. Not the tunes. Not the cuts to the embassy’s electricity and water. Not even the food poisoning that got so bad, well… let’s just say all six of the embassy’s toilets got clogged. But through those four months, the Hondurans never dared enter that embassy.
Today’s story is about another government (Ecuador’s) which did just dare enter someone’s embassy – Mexico’s. And it’s triggered a rare moment of regional unity in response.
P.S. Last chance to enter our giveaway for Tangle Live! on 17 April.
Israel withdraws some troops from southern Gaza.
The Israeli military has withdrawn its ground forces from Khan Younis, Gaza’s second-biggest city, to “recuperate and prepare for future operations”. Defence Minister Yoav Gallant says the future operations include Israel’s “coming mission in the Rafah area". Meanwhile, negotiations to strike a ceasefire and hostage release deal have resumed in Cairo.
Brazilian judge opens inquiry into Elon Musk following row.
Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes has opened an obstruction of justice investigation into Twitter/X owner Elon Musk after the billionaire announced he would defy the court’s order to ban several accounts on the social media platform. Musk later decided to strike a more conciliatory tone by calling for Moraes to resign or be impeached.
IAEA warns of attack on Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed yesterday (Sunday) that drone attacks have struck the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant for the first time since 2022. No critical damage was reported and radiation levels remain normal. Russia accuses Ukraine of orchestrating the strike, something Kyiv denies.
South Korea launches second spy satellite.
The country’s second home-grown spy satellite is officially in orbit after being launched aboard a SpaceX rocket yesterday. Seoul’s space fervour is a response to North Korea ramping up its own space military capabilities.
Rwanda marks genocide’s 30th anniversary.
President Paul Kagame led a ceremony yesterday to commemorate the 30th anniversary of the 1994 Rwandan genocide. In his remarks, he criticised the international community for failing to intervene to save the estimated 800,000 people killed in the violence.
TOP STORY
The world condemns Ecuador’s raid on Mexico’s embassy
Ecuador’s police special forces outside Mexico’s embassy in Quito on Friday night. Credits: Alberto Suarez/AFP/Getty Images
An international tit-for-tat culminated on Friday night with Ecuadorian police dramatically storming Mexico's embassy to arrest Ecuador's former vice president.
Jorge Glas was Ecuador’s VP from 2013 until 2017, when he was ousted before a court jailed him for six years for accepting $13.5M in bribes. He then copped a separate eight-year sentence in 2020, along with his former president Rafael Correa (the leftist ex-leader who's long been in Belgium, so was tried in absentia).
Curiously, Glas was then released early in 2022, but prosecutors went on to publish group chats from a cartel money-man, suggesting cartels had paid a judge $250k to release Glas early.
As rumours then circulated (🇪🇨) about another warrant for his arrest over additional corruption allegations, Glas fled to Mexico's embassy in December last year, and requested political asylum.
Things then escalated further last week when Mexico's left-leaning president (widely known as 'AMLO'), threw shade at Ecuador's young, right-leaning leader, suggesting Daniel Noboa only won October’s elections by “creating a climate of fear” – a reference to a presumed cartel assassination of another candidate.
In response to AMLO’s dig, Ecuador then effectively expelled Mexico's ambassador, and Mexico followed by immediately granting Glas asylum on Friday. So, just hours later, Ecuador stormed Mexico’s embassy, seized Glas, and flew him to the country's most notorious maximum security prison.
Ecuador's president sought to justify the dramatic move by accusing Mexico of “abusing” the embassy’s immunities, while Mexico's president announced the suspension of ties with Ecuador plus a case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
Pretty wild 72 hours, right?
But things just kept going, as Latin America showed rare unity in condemning Ecuador's move – the only conflict was over who could condemn Ecuador more:
Colombia went with "barbaric", Nicaragua opted for "despicable", while regional pariah Venezuela went in for the kill, accusing Ecuador's "rightwing, pro-Yankee government" of "kidnapping Glas". Brazil left its thesaurus on the shelf and just used the "strongest possible terms". Crucially given the politics here, the region's right-leaning leaders (like Argentina and Uruguay) also condemned Ecuador.
Why all this outrage? It's pretty common for political figures to seek asylum in the region’s embassies – heck, Panama's ex-president now lives in Nicaragua's embassy, and a convicted Ecuadorian minister lived in Argentina’s embassy for years before mysteriously popping up safe next door in Venezuela last month.
But governments don't dare breach the embassy walls to seize these fugitives. That's because the 1961 Vienna Convention says embassies are "inviolable", and it's a pretty sacrosanct rule, not to mention a pivotal plot point in Lethal Weapon 2. Examples of breaches are really pretty rare – Cuba has done it twice (in 1956 and 1981), pro-regime Iranians infamously did it in 1979, and of course, Israel bombed Iran's embassy in Syria just last week.
So Ecuador has now written itself into quite the history book. But President Noboa is enjoying soaring popularity at home with his tough on crime approach, and something tells us Friday’s raid will give his polling another bump.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
In ‘solving’ one problem, President Noboa has probably created more. First, at some point the ICJ will rule against Ecuador, and that could be more embarrassing than letting Glas evade authorities in the first place.
Second, Noboa needs the region’s – and the world’s – solidarity, as he struggles to tackle a real security crisis hitting a country that was long relatively peaceful. His chances of seizing that solidarity just got slimmer.
Third, Noboa also needs investment to help his country recover, but foreign investors will think twice about whipping out their checkbook if local authorities will happily breach an embassy, let alone a business.
And fourth, Noboa now risks effectively ‘martyring’ Glas more than holding him to account.
But this weekend’s drama is bigger than Noboa, Glas, or Ecuador. Regionally, it’s a symptom of stubborn challenges around corruption, impunity, and polarisation, with justice still often seemingly being served and skirted – and asylum offered – depending on your ideological affiliation.
And internationally, it’s all yet another step towards the law of the jungle. Though maybe this collective outrage will now help us all take one step back.
Also worth noting:
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Noboa declared Ecuador to be in an “internal armed conflict” in January and designated 20 drug-trafficking gangs as terrorist groups, authorising the military to “neutralise” them subject to international law.
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Noboa’s first term ends next year, as he was only elected to finish the term of a former president who stood down last year after months of political gridlock.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇦🇲 Armenia: The EU has approved a $290M package to support Armenia’s economy as it seeks to draw Yerevan into its orbit following Armenia’s split with Russia. The plan emerged after three-way talks between EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
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🇸🇰 Slovakia: Peter Pellegrini, an ally of populist Prime Minister Robert Fico, has won Slovakia’s presidential election. Pellegrini, who favours peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, vowed “to ensure that Slovakia remains on the side of peace and not on the side of war”.
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🇲🇲 Myanmar: The Burmese military junta has lost control of another key town on the Myanmar-Thailand border after weeks of fighting against ethnic militias allied with anti-junta forces. A majority of Myanmar’s trade with Thailand passes through the town (Myawaddy).
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🇨🇦 Canada: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced a US$1.8B package to boost the country’s AI sector and create an AI safety institute. The majority of the funds will go towards building computing capabilities and tech infrastructure.
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🇿🇼 Zimbabwe: The central bank has launched a new gold-backed currency, the ZiG, in an effort to stabilise runaway inflation in the country. The Zimbabwean dollar has lost almost 100% of its value against the USD over the past year.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
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An Italian island overrun with goats is offering to adopt them out to anyone willing to take one.
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Denmark has warned its neighbours that a malfunctioning missile booster might launch unintentionally over the Baltic Sea, though the actual missile apparently wouldn’t explode.
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Everyone in Japan could share the surname ‘Sato’ by 2531 unless the government amends a law requiring spouses to have the same surname.
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French authorities have now banned a couple from Nice – who kept more than 150 cats – from owning pets.
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A US woman who pressed the wrong button on a lottery vending machine has ended up winning $1M.
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A truck carrying 102,000 live salmon for conservation purposes has crashed into a creek, releasing the fish into the wrong Oregon waterway.
MILESTONE OF THE DAY
Credits: an anonymous Intriguer.
Spot anything cool in this photo? Sure, the pants. But try zooming into the top left corner a little. Yep, that person at the next table is reading Intrigue (while enjoying what looks to be a pot of tea). An Intriguer snapped this pic at a café in a distant city, after feeling too shy to say hello to the fellow Intriguer adjacent.
Now, we’re not encouraging you to take secret pics of random people. In fact, please don’t do that. But still, this pic really did make our day. From our early emails to friends and family, it feels like a real milestone that our briefings might now help two strangers connect in a distant land. We’ll drink to that 🍵.
DAILY POLL
Do you think anything can justify breaching a foreign embassy? |
Last Thursday’s poll: What do you think China can offer Southeast Asia that the US can't match?
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💰 Bigger investments (22%)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ⛓️ Investments with fewer strings (15%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💪 More useful security cooperation (6%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👀 Acceptance of 'unorthodox' governance methods (37%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🏆 Market access (17%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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👀 C.L: “The US has more stipulations on government standards than China appears to have.”
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🏆 R.N: “From horticultural exports to tourism, China offers a huge market with the added bonus of new investment to avoid EU/US trade barriers.”
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✍️ S.L: “Proximity to power. The US is not 'at home' in Southeast Asia.”
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💰 W.D: “China has far more to gain in investing in major infrastructure and other projects in Southeast Asia than the USA. It is in their backyard and they happen to have a centralized authoritarian government so it is easy for them to put official (and unofficial) pressure on their companies to invest heavily wherever Beijing determines is of strategic importance.”
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✍️ H: “A consistent foreign policy, 5 year plans and homogenous leadership that stands by its decisions.”
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