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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ The top 3 quotes from that group chat |
2️⃣ Intrigue’s commodities corner |
3️⃣ Workout of the day |
Hi Intriguer. If you’re anything like me, you’ve probably had that ‘gut punch’ moment when you realised that you stuffed up big time: whether it’s getting flagged for missing a step in the embassy lockup process, or accidentally texting the person you’re talking about your exact thoughts about them (“whoops, wrong person!” 😅).
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We can only wonder what thoughts are top of mind for some senior members of the Trump Administration, who’ve accidentally looped a journalist into their group chat on Signal recently. One thing I know for sure is that it’s certainly given the DC meme-chinery plenty of content.
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Anyway, today’s briefing leads with an update on that group chat, and what it might mean for the world.
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PS – Ever wondered what it’s like to be foreign minister for a NATO ally without a military? Don’t miss our unfiltered chat with Iceland’s Thordis Kolbrun Gylfadottir, online this Friday at 9.30am ET. Register here!
THE HEADLINES
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Trump to tariff buyers of Venezuelan oil.
The president has announced additional 25% tariffs on any nation buying Venezuelan oil or gas, effective from 2 April. Venezuela’s buyers include China, India, Spain, Italy, plus even the US itself. Meanwhile, Trump has also suggested a softening in his trade approach, hinting he “may give a lot of countries breaks”.
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US and Russia to release joint statement?
Monday’s US-Russia talks on a possible Russo-Ukraine peace plan reportedly lasted 12 hours, and there was word of a possible joint statement. But it’s not dropped yet, and the Kremlin is now saying the contents of those US-Russia talks won’t be made public.
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Turkish protests continue into sixth day.
President Erdogan has called protests against the arrest of his top political rival “evil”, and is accusing the opposition of inciting violence. Authorities have made over 1,100 arrests, with reports suggesting several journalists have also been arrested in their homes.
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Oscar-winning Palestinian director detained.
The Israeli journalist and Oscar-winning co-director of ‘No Other Land’ has alleged Israeli settlers just beat his Palestinian co-director Hamdan Ballal in his West Bank home, before Israeli authorities detained him. The Israeli military hasn’t immediately commented.
Samsung CEO dies.
Samsung Electronics CEO and vice chair Han Jong-hee has died of a cardiac arrest, aged 63. He chaired last week’s shareholder meeting, where investors grilled executives on Samsung’s failure to ride the AI boom.
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TOP STORY
The top three quotes from that group chat
One of the screenshots shared by The Atlantic. ‘JV’ is JD Vance, Ratcliffe is the CIA chief, Waltz is the national security advisor, ‘MAR’ is Secretary of State Rubio, and ‘SM’ is Trump’s deputy chief of staff, Stephen Miller. ‘Houthi PC’ refers to a committee of principals (mostly cabinet members), and ‘MAL’ likely refers to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago.
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Reporters can spend decades going to extraordinary lengths to score a scoop that shines a light into the darkness and perhaps even alters the course of history.
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Then there’s The Atlantic‘s Jeffrey Goldberg, who we like to imagine was maybe in line at Chipotle when Trump’s national security advisor wrongly added him to a group chat of cabinet secretaries sharing extraordinary deets about US plans to hit the Houthis.
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Anyway, you can bet every foreign embassy in DC is right now reporting on this mess-up and what it means for our world, so here are three of the top quotes and why they matter:
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“I fully share your loathing of European free-loading. It’s PATHETIC”
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That’s Defence Secretary Hegseth amen-ing VP Vance, who reluctantly goes along with the Houthi strikes (last week) despite noting, “I just hate bailing Europe out again.” His argument is that this is fundamentally Europe’s problem, because Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping put much more of Europe’s seaborne trade at risk than America’s.
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Vance’s frustration isn’t new, though it’s interesting to see the chat dunk on Egypt too, presumably given it earns a cool $9B (in a good year) from Suez Canal fees yet has been pretty absent from allied efforts to end the Houthi attacks (it’s wary of antagonising Iran).
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“I think messaging is going to be tough no matter what”
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That’s VP Vance weighing in not so much on how to end the Houthi threat, but on how to frame it publicly — and he disagrees with his boss (Trump), suggesting it’s inconsistent for the president to criticise Europe’s free-loading then bail it out again in the Red Sea.
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Interestingly, Vance also flags that “nobody knows who the Houthis are“, suggesting a need to anchor any use of US power abroad with a war-weary public back home.
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Anyway, in the end, Hegseth’s press release last week duly emphasised this was about sending an “unrelenting” message to Iran (which backs the Houthis) and defending a “core national interest” (freedom of navigation).
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“We are currently clean on OPSEC”
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That’s Defence Secretary Hegseth again, assuring everyone there’s been full operational security (no leaks) — all, of course, in messages live-leaked to a high-profile journalist. And funnily enough, that same journalist then declined to republish Hegseth’s sensitive group chat updates (targets, munitions, timing) out of concern for national security.
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Of course, critics are now calling for Hegseth’s resignation, particularly after he vowed on Friday to use polygraph tests to catch leakers. But the president is backing him for now.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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We’ve all sent messages to the wrong Gary, added work Gary to the football chat, or called our teacher ‘mom’. But this saga really dials that dynamic all the way up to 11.
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First, it’s a dream for foreign capitals to understand how the US makes its decisions, let alone why. And this group chat makes those dreams come true even if, in many ways, it confirms what’s already apparent (like real resentment around allied free-loading).
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Second, foreign capitals value insights into key players, and they might glean something on Hegseth here — could his eagerness to share spicy updates with cabinet members, not to mention his push for an immediate move against the Houthis, be an effort to firm up his authority after eking out the slimmest of senate confirmations? (for his part, Hegseth frames it as an effort to restore US deterrence after Biden’s term).
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Third, if these US hits on Houthi targets were intended to send one message (foes beware), they’ve ended up sending something else along the way, including about divisions within the White House and the West, not to mention flat incompetence.
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Fourth, while this’ll all be music to an adversary’s ears, you can bet it’ll also fuel pre-existing allied doubts not only around US intent, but also US reliability (which’ll also be music to an adversary’s ears, btw).
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And finally, we’ll leave you with these observations, knowing full well that Intriguers are more than capable of holding multiple things to be true at once:
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You can support a party while acknowledging its faults (leave ‘whataboutism’ to the Soviets, who wielded it to erode rather than uphold standards), and…
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You can streamline bureaucracy without, you know, pumping classified info through an unclassified app while accidentally looping in a journalist.
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Also worth noting:
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Well we’ll be darned, but the directors of the CIA, FBI, NSA, DIA, and National Intelligence are all due to testify before Congress today (Tuesday).
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The group chat included 18 people such as the VP; the secretaries of state, defence, and treasury; plus the president’s national security advisor, chief of staff, director of national intelligence, and CIA chief.
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The ‘Signal’ messaging app they used is common in DC, though it’s not approved for classified info. At least one member of the chat (Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff) might’ve joined while in Moscow.
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While the US has (with the UK) led most strikes on Houthi positions, other allies like France, Italy, and Canada have also served in the coalition.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇯🇵 Japan: Beijing has rejected Tokyo’s request to remove a line from a meeting read-out in which Japan’s prime minister supposedly declared that “Japan respects the positions elaborated by the Chinese side”. Western capitals often now rush to release their own read-outs to avoid getting verballed like this.
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🇧🇬 Bulgaria: Parliament has approved the creation of a government-backed supermarket chain to sell food at a reduced mark-up in Bulgaria’s poorest regions. Critics query whether the proposal breaches EU competition law.
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🇹🇭 Thailand: Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra will face a no-confidence vote tomorrow (Wednesday), after the opposition alleged she’s unduly influenced by her father, a popular if polarising former leader. She has a majority in parliament so is expected to survive the vote.
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🇵🇪 Peru: The legislature has now removed Peru’s interior minister, arguing he failed to stem rising violent crime in Lima. A state of emergency remains in place, with troops in the streets to back the police.
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🇹🇩 Chad: Chad’s foreign ministry has chastised a general in neighbouring Sudan after he suggested Chadian airports could be military targets for helping the UAE ship arms to a rival paramilitary in Sudan’s civil war. While the UAE denies any role, UN reports have described the UAE-Chad smuggling allegations as credible.
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EXTRA INTRIGUE
Our commodities corner is back
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Oil: Russia’s central bank has warned that the US and OPEC have the capacity to flood the global market and collapse prices (further straining Putin’s ability to finance his war).
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Rice: Prices have dipped after India removed the last of its rice export controls.
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Diamonds: One industry source suggests 52% of engagement rings featured lab-grown (rather than natural) diamonds last year, further pressuring the diamond industry which underpins Botswana’s economy.
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Gold: Gold prices have edged lower this week as Trump signals increased flexibility on US tariffs.
WORKOUT OF THE DAY
Credits: Andre Penner/AP.
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Brazil’s largest city, Sao Paulo, is a city of wonders: a stunning skyline, relaxing river walks, and yes… one of the world’s largest helicopter fleets.
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In fact, there are over 500 helicopters registered throughout the city as a way for the wealthy to avoid one of Sao Paulo’s other wonders: traffic. That’s why Uber trialled ‘UberCopter’ back in 2016.
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Anyway, fitness entrepreneurs have now found a way to use the city’s (often idle) 200 helipads, offering roof-top spin classes.
DAILY POLL
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What do you think this group chat incident means? |
Yesterday’s poll: If your government had extra funds, where would you want them invested?
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🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🪖 Defence (12%)
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🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ 📚 Education (19%)
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 💉 Healthcare (22%)
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🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨 🛣️ Infrastructure (21%)
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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🥅 Social security (6%)
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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🔬 Science and tech (6%)
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🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💰 Tax cuts (10%)
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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (4%)
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Your two cents:
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💉 W.B.B: “Healthcare is my first choice, yet I hesitated to select it because in my 30-year career in hospitals, I witnessed a lot of waste.”
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🛣️ C.O.N: “Infrastructure is like a catalyst for almost all other funds and projects.”
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📚 J: “Pick a problem, any problem. Education is the only universal solution.”
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🪖 W.H: “Given the dramatically shifting global geopolitical situation and the rapidly evolving state of weapons technology (see drones, AI, etc.), I reluctantly vote today for ‘Defence’ as first priority. Without security backed by deterrence, all other investments don’t seem to make sense.”
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✍️ E.H.W: “Paying off debt to reduce the chunk of the budget spent on servicing it in years without ‘extra cash’…”
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