Plus: Puppies of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ The world digests Trump’s tariffs |
2️⃣ Intrigue jobs board |
3️⃣ Puppies of the day |
Hi Intriguer. One of the things I love about parenthood — aside from, you know, my kids and all — is the way their little social lives draw me into contact with folks I’d never meet otherwise.
It happened the other day at a BBQ where, between helping open a juice box and slapping a Frozen-themed Band-Aid on a minor scrape, I met a fellow dad who happens to run a business with factories in China. It was interesting because, while I’ve spent my career thinking about this world from 30,000 feet, his perspective was from the ground — the jobs at stake, the people he knows, the sleepless nights.
That’s on my mind today — plus my friends across the US, Canada, and Mexico — as we delve into Trump’s massive tariff announcement over the weekend.
PS – Ever wondered what it’s like to be a NATO ally next door to Russia? Get the inside scoop from someone who’s been in the room: the high-profile young former foreign minister of Lithuania, Gabrielius Landsbergis. Don’t miss our candid online chat with Gabrielius next Wed Feb 12th, 10.30am ET. Register here!
Trump tariffs roil global markets.
Ahead of the US market opening, equities have slumped elsewhere, pricing in what Trump’s tariffs now mean for Canada, Mexico, China, the US, and beyond (more below).
Ukraine fears exclusion from US-Russia talks.
Responding to Trump comments that US and Russian officials are already in talks to end the war, Ukrainian President Zelensky has suggested that excluding his country from its own peace talks would be “very dangerous”. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones have destroyed yet another major piece of Russian oil infrastructure overnight.
USAID future unclear.
The website for the main US foreign aid agency has now gone dark after President Trump described the agency as run by “radical lunatics”. According to some reports, USAID could be absorbed into the State Department, an idea that’s been floated before.
Syria’s new leader visits Saudi Arabia.
Ahmed al-Sharaa is in Saudi Arabia to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), using his first official trip abroad to drum up support for his new administration, firm up Saudi investment, and signal a continued Syrian pivot away from Iran.
Samsung chief acquitted in fraud case.
A court has found Samsung chair Lee Jae-yong not guilty of stock manipulation over a 2015 merger. Lee already spent over a year in prison through to 2021, for bribing former South Korean leader Park Geun-hye in connection with the same merger.
TOGETHER WITH THE INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL NEGOTIATION
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As mental well-being is increasingly recognized as fundamental to both personal health and effective professional practice, the e-Conference 2025 will explore the role mental health plays within the field of negotiation. Throughout the program, we will engage in collaborative discussions with experts and participants to explore:
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Power Dynamics
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Crisis Negotiations
The e-Conference offers a unique opportunity for academics and practitioners to come together in an online setting, blending research-based knowledge with firsthand experiences. Join us to learn from our distinguished experts. Participants who complete all sessions will receive an IGN Certificate.
TOP STORY
Trump’s tariffs, viewed from four cities
Just as he swore to do, Donald Trump signed new executive actions on Saturday, slapping 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. Energy exports from Canada seem to be the sole major carve-out, copping a 10% tariff instead.
Now, before we dive in, here’s a sweet term to slip into conversation: strategic empathy. It’s what diplomats use to try and understand why world leaders act the way they do, without necessarily (dis)agreeing. So with that in mind, let’s kick this off in…
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🇺🇸 Washington DC — "crisis"
Trump's stated rationale here is a crisis at the US borders, including both irregular migration and fentanyl. Trump campaigned on this, and we’ve covered the scourge of fentanyl before.
But this crisis is not just Trump's rationale. It’s also now his legal basis — to enact these tariffs, he used the 1970s-era International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which is meant to empower presidents to respond to an "unusual and extraordinary threat" abroad.
Interestingly, however, Trump hasn't specified what exactly he wants Canada, Mexico, or China to do now in return for withdrawing the tariffs. That could be for a few reasons:
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Perhaps it's tactical, to see what concessions they'll offer first
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Perhaps it's just flexible, so he can declare victory at a time of his choosing, or
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Maybe it's just a legal move to cite the border crisis in order to wrest congressional authority over to the White House, to then pursue broader motives.
Our gut is it's all three. But then, what might Trump's broader motives be? Again, they’re not new: frustration at the US being treated like a cash cow, and a plan to take the fiscal burden off income taxes. He’s also repeated his remarks about Canada becoming the 51st US state, which takes us up to…
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🇨🇦 Ottawa – "betrayal"
In what some Canadians see as his best-ever speech, Justin Trudeau has now described their sense of betrayal: after fighting and dying side-by-side as allies for generations, their American allies are now targeting a relatively balanced trade relationship, shaped by Trump's own signature trade deal (USMCA), with executive powers ordinarily reserved for an autocratic foe like Iran or Russia, and using tariffs now likely to put hundreds of thousands of Canadian jobs at risk. And for what?
Yes, illegal border crossings from Canada have hit historic new highs in the last four years, and border authorities seized enough fentanyl to kill ~10 million folks last year. Yet also, total volumes are still very small, with Canada accounting for perhaps 1% of all US undocumented migration and fentanyl (criminal activity is by definition tough to measure).
Meanwhile, this is all happening at a very tricky time — with Trudeau resigning and others now competing to replace him, there’s a powerful political incentive for Canada's leaders to hit back. And yet, with ~80% of its exports heading to the US, Canada is clearly also vulnerable — its central bank warns of 6% in lost growth over the next three years, while the Canadian dollar has just hit a 22-year low.
But vulnerable doesn’t mean Canada has no options: guess which country is the single largest export destination for ~36 US states? Yes, it's Canada. And it’s now responding with 'buy Canadian' efforts, plus tariffs targeting US goods made in red states: OJ from Florida, bourbon from Kentucky, and so on. The idea is to share the pain among Trump's own base, which might then theoretically push Trump to change course.
This worked last time in 2018, but Trump is now less politically vulnerable, and you can see that in the relative silence among his own party. So then, let’s head down to…
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🇲🇽 Mexico City – "panic"
Mexico is even more dependent on the US than Canada — its US exports equate to around 30% of GDP (versus 20% for Canada). So some are now forecasting a deep and destabilising recession, sending more folks trying to cross the border in search of work.
But that’s not to say Mexico has no options, either. In addition to extending the olive branch in the form of stepped-up fentanyl seizures and a proposed new joint commission, President Sheinbaum is also drawing up retaliatory tariffs of her own which (like Canada) will aim to repeat past successes by targeting key US districts and states. She's also reportedly looking at a 'carousel' approach, which would rotate different US businesses in and out of the firing line, to maximise the pain via uncertainty.
Anyway, to wrap it up, let’s now head over to…
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🇨🇳 Beijing – "relief"
Beijing is warning of its own counter-measures plus a case at the WTO, but President Xi’s overarching emotion right now may just be relief. Trump has not only slapped China with additional new tariffs way below the 60% he threatened on the campaign trail, but these new tariffs are even below what he's now slapping on his own NATO ally (Canada).
Any WTO case is unlikely to go anywhere, simply because the WTO’s legal role has largely ground to a halt due to a US veto on new judges since Trump 1.0. China may also announce more retaliatory tariffs of its own, but it's running out of options at this point, so its most effective response might also be its most silent: more currency devaluation to make its exports cheaper. That’s what happened under Trump 1.0, arguably worsening China's broader global imbalance (which the US still absorbs, just less directly).
So what happens now? Trump says he's speaking with both Trudeau and Sheinbaum today (Monday), so maybe (maybe?) we'll see some kind of last-minute deal. But Trump's orders also include language warning of further US tariffs if any of the three move to retaliate, which they’ve all now done (though the Mexico and China details are tbc).
The other wildcard is the market, which has influenced Trump’s thinking before. US markets open shortly, but Bitcoin has now crashed ~5% in a few hours and Asian markets didn’t fare much better, reflecting the uncertainty, ripple effects, and warnings for the US itself — taxing cars made in Mexico, for example, could hit the US firms supplying ~40% of the parts.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
This is now looking like more than just avocados, orange juice, or even fentanyl.
Rather, Trump is talking about a complete re-ordering — if not dismantling — of a historic experiment in regional economic integration. The idea behind NAFTA and then USMCA was always to harness America's capital, Mexico's labour, and Canada's resources to drive prosperity, security, and influence for all three. And of course, it’s a constant balancing act to grapple with the resulting shifts in capital, crime, talent, and labour. But a succession of US-Mexico-Canada leaders (including Trump 1.0) saw them all as issues to negotiate rather than a system to be rejected.
That said, while Trump wants to re-jig the economic order, this isn’t necessarily the same as ceding strategic space to China (though the two overlap). And this might help explain why, despite US allies in Europe reportedly being next in Trump’s sights, those US allies located closer to China (Japan, Korea, Philippines, Australia) are still managing to avoid the fray for now.
Also worth noting:
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The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is due for review next year, though Canada and Mexico already see these US tariffs as treaty breaches. Meanwhile, all three are also due to co-host the FIFA World Cup next year.
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Trump's orders also remove the $800 de minimis exemption that allows China's e-commerce giants Temu and Shein to send packages to US buyers tax free.
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Mexico just signed a trade pact with the EU, though realistically this isn't a replacement for the level of economic integration it has with the US next door.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇷 South Korea: The South Korean privacy watchdog is reportedly planning to grill the owners of China’s new AI chatbot Deepseek on its handling of personal information. Italy, France, and Ireland have already taken similar measures.
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🇫🇷 France: Prime Minister Bayrou has vowed to push through a contentious 2025 budget proposal without a parliamentary vote, warning the delays were harming France’s economy. Feeling that deja vu? A similar move by his predecessor led to the collapse of France’s last government just a few months ago.
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🇮🇳 India: Speaking of budgets, India’s finance minister has presented her own annual budget to parliament, focussed on cutting middle class taxes and providing boosts for agriculture and manufacturing. After years of 8% growth, India hopes this budget will help hit the gas again as stagnant wages and high food prices erode consumer spending and corporate profits.
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🇸🇻 El Salvador: Merchants in El Salvador will no longer be forced to accept Bitcoin as payment after El Salvador’s legislature passed a new law updating a previous ordinance. The IMF required El Salvador to loosen this Bitcoin rule in order to gain access to a $1.4B loan.
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🇸🇴 Somalia: Donald Trump says he has called airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Somalia, killing several ISIS leaders hiding in a cave in the country’s north. Somalia’s president later tweeted he had been given a heads-up from the US, and that he “welcomes the continued commitment under the decisive leadership of President Donald Trump”.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
The Intrigue jobs board is back!
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Podcast producer and graphic designer with us @ Intrigue, remote
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Terrorism and human rights consultant @ UN, in New York
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Senior consultant @ Deloitte, in the Bahamas
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Chief of staff @ British Consulate-General in Montreal
PUPPIES OF THE DAY
Credits: Foreign Service Institute.
Foggy Bottom, like the rest of Washington, is adjusting to a new normal — cuts to foreign aid, some strongly worded personnel emails, and now a dwindling supply of puppies.
Puppies, you say? Yup, they were part of a program, Paws at State, which helped US diplomats recover from overseas service. We made a few inquiries and the State press team duly confirmed to Intrigue that this program has indeed now been axed.
Of course, Intriguers can make up their own minds about specific US cuts, though maybe it’s timely to mention that diplomats do indeed deal with some traumatic stuff: whether responding to a natural disaster, being the target of terrorists or kidnappers, or copping a stray bullet during an attempted assassination. We know folks who fall into each of these categories, and more. It’s not all champagne and canapés. Mostly, sure, but not all.
DAILY POLL
Where do you see this tariff trade war landing? |
Last Thursday’s poll: What deal do you think will emerge between Russia and Syria?
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🚨 Putin needs those bases, Assad is doomed (34%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⚡ Putin will just offer other sweeteners (energy, grain) (47%)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ⛔ Putin did too much damage in Syria, there'll be no deal (17%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write us!) (1%)
Your two cents:
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⚡ N: “At the end of the day, Syria has too much Russian equipment for it to turn its back on Russia immediately.”
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🚨 E.K.H: “Assad is just some guy now. If Putin can get something by handing him over, Assad has nothing to counter offer.”
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⛔ I: “Russia has a lot that it can offer Syria, but there are many others who can offer just as much or more.”
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✍️ G.A: “There's a chance Putin is just buying time so he can relocate Russian assets to Libya.”
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