🌍 Ukraine drones hit deep inside Russia

$200B 

That’s how much money Bill Gates has pledged to donate to charity, with a majority of his fortune going towards education and health projects across Africa.

Ukraine hits deep inside Russia

Inside Olenya air base in Russia’s Arctic north on Sunday, Russian maintenance crews watched helplessly as Ukrainian drones swarmed their billion-dollar bomber fleet. Many of these drones were launched from wooden boxes smuggled across the border on at least seven trucks over the past 18 months (analysts are still poring over satellite data to piece the details together).

The numbers of ‘Operation Spider Web’ are wild:

• 117 Ukrainian drones were involved

• 41 Russian aircraft were targeted (per Ukrainian government sources)

• The drones hit targets as far as 4,300 kilometres away from Russia’s border with Ukraine

• And Ukrainian sources suggest one-third of Russia’s bomber fleet was badly damaged or destroyed

But here’s the kicker: the Ukrainian drones (which appear to have been modified from the type of consumer models that normally film weddings) cost ~$500 a pop whereas the Russian Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 bombers they’re hunting come in somewhere between $40 million and $100 million each (estimates vary).

That’s about a 1:100,000 cost to damage ratio. Ukraine just proved you can cripple a major power’s air force for the price of a sensible family sedan.

So why does this matter right now?

For the “ceasefire” talks, this timing is no accident. A Russian delegation was on its way to Istanbul as Ukrainian drones were striking — just 48 hours after Moscow launched its own record-setting drone attack.

There’s two ways to read this:

• both sides are flexing their military might to gain leverage before the negotiations, or;

• neither side is serious about peace and won’t be for a while.

While Russia and Ukraine did agree late yesterday to repatriate the bodies of 6,000 dead soldiers and exchange POWs, there was no sign of any broader agreement to end the war, so the smart money’s on the latter explanation.

For Ukraine, the operation was both a PR win and a legitimate military feat. Many of the drones were made domestically, under wartime conditions, with supply chains under constant attack. Remember that Oval Office meeting between Presidents Zelenskyy and Trump? Well, this operation flips that script a bit, showing the world that Ukraine still has “cards to play”, and can innovate and adapt despite facing a richer and more powerful enemy.

For Putin, it’s a wake-up call that nowhere is safe — not even Siberia. With fighting still occurring inside Russia’s Kursk oblast, exact borders are getting blurrier, and apparently, wooden boxes on trucks can hide some nasty surprises. Intelligence analysts say Operation Spider Web demonstrates just how little control Russia has over its borders.

For defence chiefs around the world, why commission $50 million bombers when an enemy can take them out with something that costs less than an (admittedly overpriced) Dyson hairdryer?

Intrigue’s Take

Ukraine’s remarkable attack leaves us with (at least) three big questions:

First, how will Russia retaliate? Russia has already responded with a series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine, but Putin has a bigger decision – respond with escalation, or downplay the attack.

Russia’s ability to launch long-range missile attacks has been seriously damaged, so it’ll be under pressure from ultranationalists to escalate, which means we should expect nuclear sabre rattling. A much worse scenario might involve a tactical nuclear “test” which leads us to the ultimate unanswerable question: how would President Trump respond?

Second, could this attack swing the war? Probably not, but history is full of underestimated military forces delivering unexpected blows that change the course of a war. The US dismissed North Vietnamese tactics until the Tet Offensive, and France thought its Maginot Line would hold until German Panzers simply drove around it. Similarly, if enemy attacks can now come from anywhere, at any time, it’s not too much to suggest this attack could trigger doctrinal rethinking within the Kremlin (and in every capital).

And finally, was this a glimpse into the future of war? AI-guided drones could change everything. Imagine: $500 consumer drones that can think for themselves, no human pilot needed, smuggled across borders, waiting months for the perfect moment to strike.

The decision to make details of this operation public ensures that Kremlin officials will be nervously wondering how many more Trojan wooden boxes there are across Russia.

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Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

What people are googling around the world: 

• 🇮🇹 Italians looked up ‘Etna’ after Europe’s largest active volcano started spewing ash.

• Folks in 🇰🇪 Kenya googled ‘WhatsApp’ after the messaging app stopped working on some older smartphone models. 

• 🇻🇳 Vietnamese chess fans searched for ‘Magnus Carlsen’ after the chess superstar slammed the table in frustration after losing to world champion Gukesh Dommaraju. 

Election of the day

Voters in South Korea headed to the polls today (Tuesday) to vote for a new president after the last one declared martial law, revoked it, but got impeached anyway. Sudden onsets of martial law aren’t easily forgotten, it seems.

Photos of election day are flooding South Korean social media, including this picture of a badminton court proudly doing its civic duty by serving as a polling booth.

The results should be known shortly.

Today’s poll

Yesterday’s poll: Do you think the rules-based international order will survive the next few years?

👍 Yes, and we've never needed it more (41%)
👎 No, it was already on its last legs (55%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (4%)

Your two cents:

• 👎 C.C: “Rules are only effective if all participants follow them; unfortunately, the rules have been honored more in the breach than in the upholding. It’s time for a different approach, one that appeals to the innate humanity present in everyone.”

• 👎 M.P: “I think that international rules are one of the key ingredients for opposing sides to meet in the middle again.

• ✍️ F.F: “It may not, but it definitely should. ”