🌍 Ukraine starts its spring counteroffensive

🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD

1. 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan: Baku authorities have established a checkpoint on the only road into the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, sparking concern about renewed fighting with Armenia. Russian peacekeepers in the area were unwilling or unable to intervene.

2. 🇳🇱 Netherlands: The UK and the Netherlands have announced plans to build Europe’s biggest cross-border electricity link to transfer surplus electricity from one country to the other. The link is expected to support Europe’s energy security.

3. 🇮🇳 India: A month-long manhunt came to a head on Sunday after Sikh separatist Amritpal Singh turned himself in to Indian police. Singh had been renewing calls to turn the northern Indian state of Punjab into an independent Sikh homeland.

4. 🇵🇪 Peru: Former president Alejandro Toledo has been extradited home from the US to face corruption charges. Toledo is being held in the same prison currently housing former presidents Fujimori and Castillo.

5. 🇪🇬 Egypt: Cairo has begun invoicing foreign yachts and cruise ships in US dollars instead of the Egyptian pound for the first time ever, in hopes of alleviating the country’s foreign reserve crisis.

🇺🇦 UKRAINE | DEFENCE

Ukrainian forces cross the Dnipro River

Briefly: For the first time since the early days of the war, Ukrainian forces have established a foothold on the east bank of the Dnipro River, near the Ukrainian-held city of Kherson.

There are several theories about what exactly this means:

1. 🛥️ Ukrainian troops could be pushing Russian forces back as they begin their long-awaited spring counter-offensive

2. 🏰 Russian troops could be withdrawing strategically to fortify nearby urban positions, allowing Ukrainian troops to cross the Dnipro, and/or

3. 🧭 The Ukrainian advance across the Dnipro could just be a diversion

Analysts expect any Ukrainian counter-offensive to focus on breaking the “land bridge” that links Russian-held areas to Crimea. So that’d fit theories 1 and 2.

But with Ukraine’s solid track record of diversionary tactics, and its promise of “informational silence” around its counter-offensive, theory 3 is just as solid.

Intrigue’s take: This river crossing was first detailed in a US-based think tank report containing several other intriguing details, including:

• Russia “losing control” of some detachments in Ukraine

• Central Asian migrants losing Russian citizenship if they don’t fight

• And even a Russian unit made up entirely of soccer hooligans

It all paints a picture of weakened Russian forces that are neither “emotionally [n]or intellectually prepared to respond” to a Ukrainian counter-offensive.

But even with new NATO weapons and training, the report notes Ukraine’s counter-offensive will be “daunting” and larger than any of its offensive efforts to date. So Kyiv will need plenty more “crossing the Dnipro” moments ahead.

Also worth noting:

• Russia has switched to defensive positions along the entire frontline except in the city of Bakhmut, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

• The UK’s Defence Ministry says Russia’s plan to recruit 400,000 volunteers is facing significant hurdles.

Today’s briefing is sponsored by Goldbelly

🇻🇺 VANUATU | FISHING

Vanuatu fights to defend its fishing rights

Briefly: The government of Vanuatu, a small Pacific Island country, has appealed to London’s High Court over mackerel fishing rights it alleges were unjustly acquired by a Panamanian company.

Something’s fishy: Suspicion first arose when a Vanuatu envoy at a summit in Ecuador was surprised to meet two men also claiming to represent Vanuatu.

It turns out the men were linked to an obscure company which Vanuatu alleges obtained fishing rights without the government’s knowledge, and at prices far below market value (less than 1% what Vanuatu was hoping to earn).

The case is due to be heard in court as early as this June.

Intrigue’s take: Seafood is a massive $247B industry, providing up to 90% of the protein and up to 98% of government revenues in some Pacific Islands. So there’s a lot at stake.

Yet the 23 Pacific Island nations have exclusive economic zones that span an area the size of Africa. That’s a lot of ocean for small countries to police.

But you know what? The latest UN report suggests Pacific Islands are doing a pretty bang-up job, thanks to better regulations, monitoring and surveillance.

Also worth noting:

• Last year, the US and its allies launched ‘Partners in Blue Pacific’, an effort to back Pacific progress on issues like illegal fishing and climate.

• Two Chinese crews are in Vanuatu facing illegal fishing charges, an accusation levelled periodically at China’s distant-water fishing fleet.

👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE

We’re very online, so you don’t have to be.

• France struggles to deliver a second nuclear era

• The trend towards global peace has been reversed ($)

• Tunisia arrests its most prominent opposition leader

• Thailand’s most polarising family rises again ahead of election

• Will Brazil destroy the Amazon to save the climate? ($)

💬 QUOTE OF THE DAY

Ukraine’s spring counter-offensive might be its best shot to determine the war’s “end game”, according to European security expert Liana Fix. Check out Friday’s Intrigue Outloud on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever to hear why.

🗳️ POLL TIME!

Yesterday’s poll: Do you think Twitter should clearly label state media?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👍 Yes, it provides relevant context for audiences (86%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👎 No, it's best for audiences to draw their own conclusions (10%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🖋️ Other (write in!) (3%)

Your two cents:

• 👍 A.L: “If Twitter can distinguish between state-affiliated/state-controlled and state-funded (but editorially independent), that would be the best case scenario to counter propaganda and misinformation.”

• 🖋️ D.Z: “I don’t think Twitter in its present incarnation can be trusted to accurately assess and honestly label corporate or state accounts. “