Plus: Toy of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ US-Ukraine peace talks |
2️⃣ Leaders on the move |
3️⃣ Toy of the day |
Hi Intriguer. The headline ‘US-Ukraine-Saudi ceasefire talks’ was not on my bingo cards for 2025. But then again, it joins a long list of other wild things I did not have on my bingo cards for this year.
If you’re wondering, others included recent Intrigue headlines like the arrest of ex-Philippines president Duterte, China’s open source AI ‘DeepSeek’ challenging US giants, and Greenland bursting onto the global geopolitical stage.
But that’s why Intrigue is here — to help steer us through these global twists and turns. So let’s dive into today’s top story on these latest Ukraine ceasefire talks.
PS — ¿Hablas español? ¡Check out our weekly edition in Spanish!
Trump’s 25% global tariffs on aluminium and steel kick in.
The EU has responded with levies on $28B worth of US goods, while Trump has announced then walked back additional tariffs on Canada, whose frustration has been on full display at a major energy conference in Houston this week (attended by Intrigue).
Israel and Lebanon start border talks.
Monday’s preliminary talks alongside US and French negotiators were an attempt to stabilise the Israel-Lebanon border area as the shaky Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire holds.
Opposition wins Greenland election.
In a shock result, the centre-right opposition Demokraatit Party has won the most votes in Greenland’s parliamentary elections, amid heightened international curiosity spurred by Trump’s comments about the US taking Greenland. Four of the five main parties variously support independence from Denmark, but Demokraatit wants a more gradual, long-term pathway — it’ll now lead coalition talks to form a government.
Romania court confirms Georgescu ban.
As we foreshadowed yesterday, Romania’s constitutional court has now confirmed the banning of populist-right candidate Călin Georgescu from May’s rescheduled presidential elections, amid allegations of Russian meddling.
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ wrap amid leader speculation.
China’s rubber-stamp legislature has approved the latest ‘government work report’, repeating Beijing’s ambitious 5% growth target and boosting military spending to $245B. But all that was soon overshadowed by the unusual absence of the top legislative body’s chair himself — official sources say Zhao Leji was suffering from a respiratory infection, though rumours of political intrigue will swirl until his next public appearance.
Duterte extradited to The Hague.
Former Philippine leader Rodrigo Duterte is now in The Hague to face International Criminal Court allegations of crimes against humanity during his war on drugs. His daughter, now the country’s VP and a rival of the sitting president who authorised the extradition, is travelling to the Netherlands to assist.
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TOP STORY
US-Ukraine talks produce ceasefire proposal
What are they feeding these lads in Ukraine? (L-R): America’s Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio, then Ukraine’s Andriy Yermak, Andrii Sybiha, and Rustem Umerov.
US and Ukrainian officials have just wrapped their peace talks in sunny Saudi Arabia, and we’re sure you’ve got questions, so let's get into it.
First, to clarify, these peace talks were about peace between Ukraine and its Russian occupiers, though you’d be forgiven (and arguably a little right) for assuming this was also about patching things up between Kyiv and DC after that meeting in the Oval Office.
Who was there?
Marco Rubio led the US delegation, alongside national security advisor Mike Waltz. And on the other side of the white flower composition sat Ukraine’s Andriy Yermak (chief of staff), Andrii Sybiha (foreign minister), and Rustem Umerov (defence minister).
What were the pre-talk vibes?
Things were looking rosy in the lead-up:
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President Zelensky floated the idea of a pause on aerial and naval attacks
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Yermak (his chief of staff) reiterated Ukraine’s thanks for US support, and
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Rubio told journalists he was feeling optimistic, though reiterated his expectation that ultimately Ukraine would struggle to regain its full pre-invasion turf.
But what did the talks achieve?
Quite a bit. According to a joint statement just released, the two sides agreed:
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To back a US proposal for an immediate 30-day ceasefire with Russia
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To restore US intelligence sharing and security assistance
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To negotiate “an enduring peace that provides for Ukraine’s long-term security” (reflecting persistent fears that Putin will simply re-arm then re-attack)
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To finally sign their critical minerals deal (billed as a way to “guarantee Ukraine’s long-term prosperity and security” rather than to repay the US), and
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They highlighted the importance of Russia returning “forcibly transferred Ukrainian children” (for which Putin is still under an international arrest warrant).
Meanwhile, Donald Trump has suggested President Zelensky is now once again welcome back at the White House, signalling a thawing since (yes) that meeting.
What’s next?
As Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky puts it, “if Russia agrees, the ceasefire will take effect immediately.” So the ball’s now in Putin’s court.
So far, that’s looked like another barrage of Russian missile strikes overnight, plus criticism of the ceasefire from Putin’s rubber-stamp parliament (alleging it’ll be Ukraine, not Russia, who uses any pause to re-arm).
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Zelensky has always been wary of proposed ceasefires unless they come with a) security guarantees, and b) credible monitoring — that’s to avoid another situation in which any ceasefire simply offers Putin a breather to freely rotate and reinforce assets then go harder once the ceasefire expires (or once he accuses Ukraine of a breach).
It’s unclear whether this proposed ceasefire satisfies either of those criteria, though a resumption in US intelligence sharing at least hints at how the monitoring piece could look. But then it’s unclear how willing (if at all) Trump would be to ‘pre-bunk’ Putin’s justifications like Biden did, let alone impose costs on any breaches.
Anyway, our sense is Zelensky has decided that the costs of any imperfect ceasefire are currently outweighed by the benefits of a) re-positioning himself as part of the solution, and thereby b) stabilising ties with Trump, who still holds critical cards for Ukraine. Oddly enough, Putin may well make the same calculation for Russia if he agrees to this temporary ceasefire.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇵🇰 Pakistan: Authorities have rescued 155 hostages taken by ethnic Baloch separatists who hijacked a train and kidnapped hundreds of passengers. The group had been demanding the release of Baloch prisoners held by Pakistan.
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🇵🇹 Portugal: Lawmakers have toppled Portugal’s centre-right government, likely sending voters to their third election in three years. The snap ballot could come in May, but that might still delay critical decisions around increased defence spending and privatising the country’s main airline.
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🇦🇺 Australia: Canberra has said it won’t impose reciprocal tariffs on US goods despite DC declining its long-time ally any exemption on steel and aluminium like it did under Trump 1.0. Responding to the tariffs, Australia’s prime minister said "this is against the spirit of our two nations' enduring friendship".
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🇨🇴 Colombia: The new defence minister, a retired general, has said he’ll focus on reclaiming parts of Colombia taken by resurgent rebel groups. One group (FARC-EMC) just released 28 police officers and a soldier it kidnapped in the country’s west, as President Petro’s ‘total peace’ strategy falters.
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🇬🇭 Ghana: Ghana’s air force is reportedly struggling to maintain its fleet of Soviet-era aircraft due to Western sanctions on Russia. The supply chain disruption is apparently starting to impact local operations, including UN peacekeeping missions and critical powerline patrols.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Leaders on the move ✈️
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🇺🇸 US spymaster Tulsi Gabbard is travelling to Japan, India and Thailand this week, then stopping in France en route home.
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🇮🇷 Iran’s defence minister, Aziz Nasirzadeh, is visiting Russian ally Belarus.
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🎖️ NATO chief Mark Rutte will be in Washington from today through the 14th, meeting Trump tomorrow (Thursday) and overlapping in town with both Ireland’s PM and Ontario’s premier.
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🇱🇦 The foreign minister of Laos is visiting neighbouring China this week, holding talks with his counterpart Wang Yi.
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🇸🇾 The European Commission has invited Syria’s foreign minister, al-Shaibani, to its donors conference on March 17th.
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🇨🇳 And Iranian, Russian, and Chinese officials will meet in Beijing on Friday to hold talks described as focusing on Iran’s nuclear program.
TOY OF THE DAY
Credits: Lego.
Guess the world’s largest toymaker? Okay fine, we already stole our own thunder in the image above, but it’s Denmark’s Lego. While the global toy market just shrunk 1% last year, Lego’s revenue grew a cool 13% as kids choose blocks over Barbies apparently.
The firm’s top market is the US, though most of its colourful bricks in the US are made at Lego’s factory in Monterrey, Mexico. The Danes are working on a new factory in Virginia, but that won’t be humming until 2027. And Trump’s next tariffs are due to hit on April 2.
Oh, and for our language nerds (you know who you are), Lego is a shortening of leg godt, which translates as “play well”.
DAILY POLL
Do you think Russia will agree to a 30-day ceasefire? |
Yesterday’s poll: How do you feel about Romania's ban on Georgescu?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👋 Good riddance, he benefited from Russian interference (59%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 😩 Urrgh, you don't fight interference with interference (38%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write us!) (3%)
Your two cents:
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👋 R.L: “Action needs to be taken at some point and the longer democracies take to respond, the harder it gets to do it.”
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😩 B.P: “I'm extremely concerned about Georgescu's assault on democracy and the interference by Russia; at the same time, it would be a massive hit to credibility when Romania applies these bans in such a fashion.”
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✍️ U.E: “Really? You can't see that this was an EU coup?”
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✍️ J.S: “I see a near future where everyone accuses everyone of foreign interference. This will be led by the interfering states to mask their own interference. The problem is global.”
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