Plus: Coup of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ What Julian Assange has left behind |
2️⃣ Gun-running in Myanmar |
3️⃣ Coup of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Ever seen those people in the movies walking around carrying secure briefcases? I was that guy once, carrying a massive black briefcase to an obscure corner of the world. And no matter how chill I tried to play it, it just drew so much attention: everywhere I went, someone made the same joke: “have you got the nuclear codes in there haha”. I do not enjoy that joke.
But in retrospect, that secure briefcase caused more problems than it solved.
That’s one of my many reflections on the classified world as we look today at the legacy of newly-freed Wikileaks founder, Julian Assange.
PS – With the first US presidential debate scheduled for tonight (Thursday), be sure to subscribe to our very own Election Intrigue! It’s our weekly apolitical briefing on the race to the White House, and what it means for the world.
Attempted coup in Bolivia.
A senior Bolivian general is now in police custody after leading a contingent of troops through the Bolivian capital to the presidential palace. Videos circulating online (see below) show the soldiers smashing in the palace doors, only to be confronted by President Luis Arce himself. The soldiers soon pulled back and pro-democracy counter-protesters filled the streets. In all, the rebellion lasted about three hours.
Yen falls to almost 40-year low.
Japan’s currency has fallen to more than 160 against the US dollar, its weakest level since 1986. The last time the yen crossed this threshold, Japan’s central bank stepped in, leading to speculation of another impending intervention. But don’t expect rate rises anytime soon – Japan raised its interest rates in March for the first time in 17 years, from negative territory to a 0%-0.1% band.
Five more countries tell their citizens to leave Lebanon.
Germany, Canada, North Macedonia, the Netherlands, and Kuwait have advised their citizens to leave Lebanon, as tensions between Hezbollah and Israel risk escalating into a full-scale war. The US, UK, and Australia have also warned their citizens against travelling to Lebanon. Meanwhile, Turkish leader Erdogan has said he’ll stand in solidarity with Lebanon, drawing the ire of Israeli officials.
Former Honduras president sentenced on drug charges.
A US court has handed down a 45-year sentence to Juan Orlando Hernández on drug smuggling charges. The prosecution accused him of running Honduras like a “narco-state” and paving a “cocaine superhighway to the United States”. He maintains his innocence.
First US presidential debate tonight.
US President Joe Biden will face former president Donald Trump in the election’s first televised debate tonight (Thursday evening local time). Four months out from election day, it’s taking place much earlier than normal.
TOP STORY
What Julian Assange has left behind
Julian Assange raises a fist after landing home in Australia a free man.
Credits: Mick Tsikas/AAP.
WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange is now a free man in his native Australia, after a deal with the US saw him plead guilty to one charge of seeking to obtain and disclose classified material.
So now that his 14-year saga is coming to an end, we figured it’s time to reflect on what Assange and his mostly defunct WikiLeaks have left behind. The truth is it’s complex, and we’re a teeeensy bit wary of anyone who claims otherwise.
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The US
Assange started out publishing all kinds of secrets from Somalia, Kenya, Peru, a Swiss bank, Tibet, and beyond. But his 2010 decision to start disclosing hundreds of thousands of classified US files put him on a collision course with Washington.
The revelations ranged from the mundane to the damning (the infamous ‘Collateral Murder’ video), and changed the way many Americans saw their own government and its role abroad. They also raised some tough political and legal questions in the US:
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Politically, Assange has found favour both among parts of the left (sceptical of US power abroad) and parts of the right (sceptical of US power at home), and
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Legally, he’s found favour among journalists and free speech advocates alike who see Assange as one of them.
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Russia
The role of Wikileaks has also evolved over the years, as has its ties with Russia:
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Assange briefly hosted a talk show on Russian state TV in 2012
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He’s published US files that were first hacked by Russian intelligence
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Russian intelligence also rehearsed exfiltrating him from London, and
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Wikileaks has reportedly declined to publish revelations against Russia, though it did so in 2017 (with info that was largely already public).
Assange’s supporters say points like the above are attempts to discredit him, and Assange himself has suggested Wikileaks had a limited role in Russia due to its lack of Russian speakers, plus the existing work of people like Alexei Navalny. But of course, the Russian opposition figure is now dead.
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Australia
While Canberra has mostly avoided the Wiki-spray, Assange has still had an impact back home in some similar ways to the US politico-legal dynamic above (Australia’s conservatives tend to back the US alliance with a tad more gusto).
And after years of struggling to draw attention to his son’s case, Assange’s father eventually got a meeting with his local member of parliament, who ended up becoming prime minister. Without weighing into the legal merits of the case, that prime minister (Anthony Albanese) has long called for the case’s conclusion, reflecting a similar – if mixed – evolution in Australian public opinion.
So now that this case has wrapped, Assange’s plea deal has:
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Removed an irritant between Australia and its allies, and
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Eroded a common talking point that authoritarians have long used when democracies advocate for political prisoners abroad (“if you care about rights, why are you persecuting Assange?”)
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And beyond
We’ve barely scratched the surface here, but Assange’s revelations are also credited with helping spark the Arab Spring, shining a light on oil corruption in Nigeria, and exposing a multinational’s dumping of chemicals in the Ivory Coast.
But a lingering debate has always been whether Assange caused undue personal harm along the way. The US judge yesterday noted her understanding that "the dissemination of this information did not result in any known physical injury".
But we can think of a few folks who’ll have views: like the Saudis who Wikileaks seemingly outed as gay; the hundreds in Afghanistan outed as anti-Taliban; Assange’s two female accusers in Sweden who never got their day in court; the pro-democracy leader from Belarus who blames Wikileaks for his jailing. And so on.
So the man – like his legacy – is complicated. But we’ll leave you to make up your own mind whether he’s a hero or a villain (and we’d love to hear in today’s poll).
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
If you’ve been reading Intrigue for a while, here are two things. First, thanks! And second, you’ll know by now that:
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We’re not too interested in left or right, though we’ve dealt with both types of governments in our former careers, and
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We’re neither journalists nor spooks, though we are ex-diplomats who now write a daily briefing for ~100,000 fine people.
The result is that we tend to see the world less in shades of red or blue, and more in shades of grey and awesome. That’s why we founded Intrigue. So here are some suitably grey closing thoughts:
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The ongoing saga (regardless of Assange’s own role in dragging it out) was starting to do more damage than good for any US interests
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Diplomats need to be able to have chats with sources without fearing that some computer whiz will later blast them out across the internet
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Several Wikileaks revelations have served the public interest, though others have served the interests of authoritarians like Putin who care little for the values Assange says he cherishes, and
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Democracies need to be able to keep secrets, though Assange’s leaks have shown we’re over-classifying some stuff, under-protecting other stuff, and sometimes using classification to avoid valid scrutiny.
Also worth noting:
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The US soldier who leaked almost 750,000 documents to Wikileaks was pardoned in 2017 after serving seven years of a 35-year sentence.
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After landing in Australia overnight, Assange told the Australian prime minister, “you saved my life”.
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On the same day Assange returned home, a Russian court commenced the espionage trial of Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reporter, Evan Gershkovich. Evan, the WSJ, and the US reject the charges.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇲🇲 Myanmar: A UN report released yesterday (Wednesday) has found that Myanmar’s junta is still able to access funds and weapons – increasingly via Thai banks – for its war against various local armed groups. The military toppled the democratically-elected government in a 2021 coup, triggering the country’s ongoing turmoil.
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🇪🇺 EU: The European Commission’s antitrust enforcer is clamping down on Microsoft, accusing it of “possibly abusive” practices for bundling its Teams product with other business software offerings. The tech giant can respond to the accusations before the commission reaches a decision that could see Microsoft fined up to 10% of its annual global revenue.
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🇱🇰 Sri Lanka: President Ranil Wickremesinghe has announced a debt restructuring deal with Sri Lanka’s bilateral creditors led by Japan and India, plus another agreement with one of China’s state banks. Sri Lanka suspended repayments on some $83B in loans and declared bankruptcy in April 2022, though has since managed to stabilise its finances.
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🇺🇸 US: Puerto Rico’s federal control board chair has announced he’s resigning, as the US territory struggles to restructure $9B in its power company’s debt. Puerto Rico’s 3.2 million residents have faced power outages since the 2017 Hurricane Maria flattened the island’s grid.
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🇮🇶 Iraq: The semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of northern Iraq has announced it’ll hold its parliamentary elections on October 20th. The elections have been delayed several times due to disputes between the two main parties, plus a judicial ruling that reserved a smaller number of seats for minorities.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
👀 Here’s what some folks are celebrating today, 27 June
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🇹🇯 Tajiks celebrate their national day of unity, marking the signing of a 1997 peace treaty that ended the country’s five-year civil war.
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Fans of tropical fruit celebrate International Pineapple Day 🍍, honouring the plant that originates in South America (though the biggest producer today is Costa Rica).
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And landlocked 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan recognises its culture and art workers today, a holiday first started in 2009 by former President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow.
COUP OF THE DAY
The moment the president faced-off against a general. Image circulated on Twitter.
It takes some nerve to confront a would-be coup leader face to face, but that’s exactly what Bolivia’s UK-educated president just did.
Cameras were rolling yesterday (Wednesday) as President Luis Arce confronted General Juan José Zúñiga, whom he’d just fired the night before for criticising a former president, Evo Morales. But rather than update his LinkedIn, General Zúñiga led a military faction to break into the presidential palace in a botched coup attempt, triggering condemnation across the continent and beyond.
The general is now in police custody.
DAILY POLL
Do you agree with Assange's release? |
Yesterday’s poll: What do you think about these Moon missions?
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 👏 Great – they'll help us unravel the mysteries of the universe (31%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👍 Good – better we compete up there than fight down here (22%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 😒 Meh – those billions could solve urgent problems down here (45%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (Write us!) (3%)
Your two cents:
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😒 L.C: “The probable supposition is that the moon will become another locale for conflict. That is in the future, but it appears that nations are preparing their claiming rights. Think 9-dash line.”
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👏 M.G: “The unexpected benefits of advancing technologies combined with the scientific knowledge gained is invaluable. Materials technology, miniaturization, wireless tech, medical advancements, and heck, even dustbuster vacuums came from the last space race. Now with private industry more involved in space flight, the boundaries of advancement are limitless.”
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✍️ P: “This competition is about unlocking and controlling potential mineral assets.”
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