Number of the day

~60% 

That’s the proportion of Ecuador’s voters who rejected the weekend’s referendum proposal to lift a ban on hosting foreign bases, dealing a blow to President Noboa’s hopes of enlisting more in-country US support against rising insecurity.

You can’t say that!

It was a mild and uneventful Friday back on November 7th: the onsens were steaming, the maples were blazing, and the salarymen were scurrying. Japan was Japaning, until…

New prime minister Sanae Takaichi took the Diet floor and answered a question with this:

"If there is a Taiwan contingency where the Chinese side uses warships or engages in other armed actions, it could constitute a 'survival-threatening situation' for Japan.”

You might think that's just stating the obvious: if someone tries to invade a fellow democracy barely ~110km (70mi) away, yep… that's kind of a big deal, right? Particularly for a nation like Japan so trade-dependent on open sea lanes.

But China has flipped out:

• China’s consul-general in Osaka tweeted (then deleted) that “those who dare to provoke China’s sovereignty over Taiwan will have their filthy necks cut off”

• Its tourism ministry has urged against visiting Japan,

• Its defence ministry has warned Japan it faces a “crushing defeat”, and

• Its coast guard has just sailed through the Japan-controlled Senkaku Islands (which China claims as its own "Diaoyu").

Why this firestorm? (or you might know the acronym, 'WTF?')

From China's perspective, Takaichi's words raised alarm bells because of…

• Who Takaichi is: a hawkish protégé of Japan's late nationalist leader, Shinzo Abe

• What she was referencing: Abe's 2015 security law loosened Japan’s pacifist constitution so it can join foreign wars in a "survival-threatening situation", and…

• What Takaichi wants: China therefore frames her words as a) a reversal of Japan’s views on Taiwan, b) a revival of Japan’s militarism (near the 80th anniversary of its WWII surrender), and c) a resurgence of Japan’s interference in China's affairs (China claims Taiwan, which Japan once colonised).

But there are probably also a few other drivers at play:

First, ambition: while it's mellowed, China’s diplomats still play "wolf warrior" in hopes of a career bump, and this particular guy (Xue Jian) is a repeat offender — ie, that threat to behead Japan's PM is partly another please-promote-me loyalty flex (#careertips).

Second, destabilisation: Beijing openly dislikes Japanese hawks like Takaichi, so this heavy response to her remarks is an early opportunity to impose real pain on Japan then link it to her leadership. Ie, if folks in Japan want the pain to stop, maybe pick another leader.

Third, deterrence: China’s ol' "kill the chicken to scare the monkey" proverb comes to mind here: by dunking on Japan, you're hoping to rattle everyone else watching in hopes they'll think very carefully before ever saying the t-word (Taiwan) out loud again. And…

Fourth, normalisation: recall China paired its flip-out over Nancy Pelosi's 2022 Taiwan visit with a ratcheting-up of drills around the self-ruling democracy that've now become the new normal. Like boiling that frog, it's about slowly dialling up the operational tempo to back your territorial claims. So it's noteworthy that China has likewise now paired its latest flip-out with a ratcheting up of patrols through the Senkaku / Diaoyu Islands.

Anyway, that's why China is freaking out over a single line uttered by Japan's new PM.

Intrigue’s Take

If you really think about it, the wildest part of all this is the possibility of a nuclear-armed UN Security Council member invading a self-ruling democracy that has never once belonged to the People's Republic of China.

And Takaichi hinged her words on that one possibility: "If there is a Taiwan contingency where the Chinese side uses warships or engages in other armed actions, it could…"

So sure, maybe one lesson amongst all this is that political leaders are often best to just avoid answering hypotheticals — you’re not Geoffrey Robertson, and real life is infinitely more complex than any one question can possibly capture, yet your answer can still be the real-world pretext your authoritarian neighbours need to start steaming vessels your way.

But still, the problem here is really the possibility of an invasion. Not any words about it.

And yet nobody is talking about that particular problem right now, precisely because everyone's still gawking at the latest twist in Beijing's performative outrage. Which maybe brings us to another driver behind this whole episode: flip out enough at someone else's words, and maybe the world will forget about your actions?

Sound even smarter:

• Japanese outlets are reporting a senior Tokyo official (Masaaki Kanai, the head of the Japanese foreign ministry’s Asia and Oceania bureau) is now en route to meet his Chinese counterpart (Liu Jinsong) in Beijing for de-escalation talks.

• If you’d like to dive a little deeper into why China is so focused on Taiwan, check out our special edition!

Today’s newsletter is sponsored by Fossil Fuel Treaty

The World Needs a Fossil Fuel Treaty

Wealthy nations have ramped up fossil fuel production by 40% since the Paris Agreement, putting us on track for 120% more coal, oil & gas than the 1.5°C limit allows.

But change is coming. Frontline nations are leading the charge for a green transition, with Colombia hosting the ‘First International Conference for the Phase Out of Fossil Fuels’ in April 2026.

As nations gather in Belém for COP30, this is the moment to build momentum behind the call for a Fossil Fuel Treaty to create a just, fossil-free world for all.

Find out more about the Fossil Fuel Treaty.

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news 

• Egypt has revealed its new capital will be called… The New Capital.

• Authorities have temporarily halted flights in South Korea to avoid disturbing the half a million students sitting Korea’s much-feared university entrance exam.

• Authorities in Canada have marvelled that a guy who stole a passenger bus still picked up commuters, refused an expired pass, and managed to return the ‘accordion-style’ bus without a scratch.

• A Frenchman has found a cool $800K worth of gold bars while digging for a swimming pool in his backyard.

• And a pizzeria owner in Italy has apologised (🇹🇼) after his video criticising a group of “Chinese tourists” (they were from Taiwan) somehow managed to offend both China and Taiwan.

Tax of the day

There are only two certainties in life: death and taxes. But not in the northernmost Italian region of South Tyrol, which has now dropped its plans for a dog tax.

The planned levy would’ve imposed a $100 annual fee for resident dog owners, and a $1.70 daily tax for tourists with furry friends. The idea was to cover the rising costs of cleaning up all the dog doo-doo in a region with high dog ownership. But after months of backlash, authorities have now smashed that ctrl-z combo.

In case you’re wondering, yes, it’s the same Italian region that famously tried to impose mandatory DNA testing to identify lazy dog owners leaving nuggets everywhere.

Today’s poll

Thursday’s poll: What do you think is the biggest issue facing energy markets today?

💲 Price (17%)
⚡️ Supply (34%)
🌤️ Reliability (22%)
🏭 Emissions (23%)
✍️ Other (write us!) (4%)

Your two cents:

• ⚡️ T.K: “Availability of transmission headroom technically drives all the other factors.”

• 🏭 M.C: “The least expensive energy sources often have the highest emissions, and environmentalism is a luxury that the energy-poor cannot afford.”

• ✍️ C.M: “Outdated transmission networks limit the impact and expansion of renewables as well as making networks more vulnerable to extreme weather.”