Meeting of the day

4:00pm 

That’s when President Trump is scheduled to emerge at the White House today (Friday) with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, potentially announcing a peace agreement to end decades of hostilities between them.

Fly high

Here at Intrigue, we love a good pattern. Celebs getting new citizenships? Story. Everyone collecting exotic new toys? Story. Random ships exploding? Story.

So when various capitals started cancelling their F-35 fighter jet orders? Yep, story.

First, the facts:

• 🇪🇸 Spain just scrapped its plan to buy Lockheed Martin’s F-35

• 🇮🇳 India has also semi-quietly told DC it no longer wants the coveted jet

• 🇨🇭 Switzerland is debating its own order for three dozen F-35s

• 🇵🇹 Portugal started looking for alternatives earlier this year, and

• 🇨🇦 Canada announced its own F-35 review in April (word is the review suggests sticking with the F-35, though it’s ultimately PM Carney’s call).

Now we’re no Sherlock Holmes, but we saw the first season of True Detective, so can confidently yet mysteriously declare: “There’s a shadow on the edge of this thing." 

Second, the target:

The F-35 is a fifth-generation fighter jet produced by US-based defence prime, Lockheed Martin Corp. The company describes the jet in three words: “Lethal. Survivable. Connected.”, which incidentally is how we’d describe spending a holiday with family. 

It’s known for its versatility: it can hit targets in the air or down below, while using advanced sensors to collect huge amounts of info on enemy forces and terrain, all without being detected. That’s why Lockheed calls it the “quarterback of the skies”. We would’ve gone with “the Kevin Bacon of the skies”, but that’s why we’re not in defence marketing.

Third, the motive: if it’s so piping hot, why are these capitals ditching it? Is it too hot?!

We initially wrote that ‘too hot?!’ line as a joke, but it’s partly true! Critics occasionally label the jet a ‘Ferrari option’, when a Ford would do. The periodic cost overruns don’t help, and many capitals want to invest in their own options.

But the critique that catches our eye is around dependency: sceptics argue owning an F-35 ties you to the US like how owning an iPhone ties you to Apple: you need ongoing HQ updates, patches, and maintenance for them to work.

And while the timing (amid US tariff and NATO threats) might hint at dependency fears, it was really Portugal’s defence minister who said the quiet bit out loud in March:

• “We cannot ignore the geopolitical environment in our choices. The recent position of the United States, in the context of NATO … must make us think about the best options, because the predictability of our allies is a greater asset to take into account.”

You know who else said the quiet bit out loud in March? The US itself, when the Pentagon had to issue a remarkable denial of any secret F-35 ‘kill switch’ (ie, any US ability to remotely disable the F-35). If you’ve reached a point where you feel the need to issue that kind of denial, it suggests trust is already fading.

And when it comes to major, cross-border, and multi-year defence projects, that’s always the secret ingredient: trust.

Intrigue’s Take

So, what’s the verdict here?

The F-35 has always been a tool of US strategy. That’s a feature, not a bug. You want access to the Kevin Bacon of the skies? You’ve got to play nice. Allies go to the front of the queue. But buy military kit from a rival like Russia, and you’re off the list, Turkey. Questions about your geopolitical interests not always aligning, and you’re off the list too, Saudi Arabia.

What is news is how this causation can work both ways, opening up vulnerabilities for the US. We got early hints when, for example, Turkey dragged its feet on Sweden’s NATO bid until the US restored Turkey’s access to the F-35. But maybe we’re seeing something else play out now, as the above allies essentially declare: if you’re going to play hard-ball like this, maybe we’ll spend our billions elsewhere.

And while losing an individual sale to Portugal or Switzerland might not be critical, the impacts can accumulate: reduced revenue for Lockheed means reduced cash for R&D which (over time) could mean a narrower military edge, less allied interoperability, and less US leverage.

Anyway, it’s Friday so go treat yourself to a Kevin Bacon film (start with Footloose, then see where the evening takes you).  

Sound even smarter:

• The F-35 program is operational across 20 armed forces worldwide. 

• Each F-35 has ~30,000 parts provided by ~1,900 suppliers across the US and beyond, including the UK, Italy, Canada, Australia, Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Japan, and Finland.

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Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Wheels of the day

There was a time when ‘diplomat luxury’ and ‘Dodge wagon’ would share the same sentence in harmony. And that time, dear Intriguer, was 1979, when the US carmaker promised its new ‘Diplomat’ could “be whatever you want it to be. A comfortable, elegant car. A hardworking station wagon. It’s ably qualified for both.”

We like to think it was buttoned-up enough for embassy driveways, but also roomy enough for that Costco run or happy-hour exfil. Sure, it didn’t have the glamour of a Cadillac or the swagger of a Mustang, but it showed up. And dear Intriguer, there are days as a diplomat when just showing up is half the battle.

Friday quiz

Test your knowledge on this week’s Intrigue!