🌍 Why Kim Jong Un is not happy


Plus: You can't put that in tea

Today’s briefing:
— Why Kim Jong Un is not happy
— Pepsi is investing where?!
— Embassy statement of the day

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Good morning Intriguer. So much of international diplomacy can be summed up by one word. That word, dear Intriguers, is “optics”. Call it smoke and mirrors, call it perception, call it narrative – it all boils down to the art of image management.

I remember the first time I’d heard the word used in a diplomatic context as a junior-burger. It went something along the lines of “think about the optics of this debacle, and whether it would pass the front-page newspaper test”.

Now, I may have just aged myself right there, referring to newspapers and all, but it’s an important lesson to remember. And one which I’m sure the world’s autocrats can also learn from, as we’ll see in today's example of North Korea.

PS — We’ll be taking a short break this Monday, but will be back in your inbox Tuesday!

In these polarised times, there’s one thing we can all agree: seeing someone fail spectacularly is objectively funny. That’s why FailArmy, a YouTube channel of people crashing into walls, trees, the floor, and any other hard surface, has 17+ million subscribers.

It's also why the news that North Korea’s new warship capsized during what was supposed to be its triumphant launch really caught our attention.  

You see, on Wednesday, Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un and assorted bigwigs from the ruling North Korean Workers' Party gathered in Chongjin, a port city in the country’s north-east, to attend the launch of North Korea’s second new destroyer. 

Kim launched the first 5,000-tonne Choe Hyon-class destroyer less than a month earlier to great fanfare. It’s hard to be sure, but it could represent a legit leap in North Korea’s naval prowess, so a second successful launch would’ve sealed the deal. 

But instead, under the watchful gaze of the big dog himself, the warship lost balance as the bow failed to detach from the slipway, crushing part of the hull. According to South Korean intelligence, the ship is now lying on its side in the harbour’s shallows.

We strive for impartiality here at Intrigue, but indulge us this one chance to say lmao.

What went wrong? 

Hard to know for sure, but the likely factors include… 

  • The Chongjin shipyard lacks a more advanced incline or dry dock, meaning the engineers had to attempt a trickier sideways launch for the first time

  • The ship’s design and weaponry meant its weight was unevenly distributed, making that first side launch attempt even more of a Hail Mary, and

  • There’s also a general sense this whole thing was a rushed job in response to top-down pressure to advance at any cost. 

How did Kim handle this? 

Umm… not well. He called it a “criminal act caused by absolute carelessness”, that “brought the dignity and self-respect of our state to a collapse”.

But while Kim’s meltdown might elicit a chuckle, it starts to make more sense when you realise this week’s fail goes to the very core of his family’s justification for eternal rule: to protect North Koreans from a hostile world. If he can’t do that, why’s he there?

Intrigue’s Take

With dictators so dependent on complete narrative control, we couldn’t help wonder why Kim allowed this broadcast at all rather than, you know, blame foreign spies, or pretend it never happened, or claim it’s actually meant to be a submarine haha.

And as we thought through that question, the answers are kinda intriguing:

  • Domestically, he was at Chongjin with his daughter, hundreds of local elites, and thousands of obedient onlookers. So that epic fail was gonna get out into the North’s rumour mill whether his state media covered it or not. And…

  • Internationally, open-source satellite players like Planet Labs and Maxar were already tracking this launch beforehand and would've released pics of the submerged destroyer afterwards, so likewise, we would’ve found out either way.

So the question for Kim then became not whether to allow the story, but how to shape it. And his answer is clear: deflect blame to subordinates to both a) instil fear and authority, while b) protecting his own Juchist myth of infallibility, without c) triggering another international crisis he can’t afford by blaming his mess-up on South Korea next-door.

Anyway, it’s not just a reminder of the value of open-source satellite imagery, but also an opportunity for foreign intelligence agencies to recruit more of Kim’s terrified engineers.

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Meanwhile, elsewhere…

🇺🇸 UNITED STATES House passes Trump’s big bill.
Defying expectations, Trump’s fractious House lawmakers have united to approve changes that’ll cut taxes, immigration, and Medicaid. Now off to the Senate. (The Hill)

Comment: While Trump’s various House factions are each claiming a win, everyone also seems to acknowledge this draft package will add trillions to government deficits over the next decade. And the timing is pretty poor, because…

🇯🇵 JAPAN A bond market implosion?
After decades of ultra-easy monetary policy to spur growth, Japan’s sticky inflation and quiet bond auctions are pushing government yields to historic highs. (FT $)

Comment: It’s partly due to technical drivers (new insurer solvency ratios), but also doubts around Japan’s longer-term fiscal trajectory. Either way, we may see Japanese investors bring their vast piles of cash back home in search of more attractive returns, meaning even lower demand for (and therefore even higher yields on) US debt.

🇰🇿 KAZAKHSTAN PepsiCo doubles down on Kazakh snacks.
PepsiCo is allotting another $320M to triple output at a local snack plant it hopes will become the firm’s hub for broader Central Asia. (Times of Central Asia)

Comment: PepsiCo is one of the larger US firms still operating in Russia, though it seems to have adjusted its operations in response to public pressure. So Central Asia is the natural choice as a hedge: pursue opportunities in these growing markets, with solid freight links into neighbouring Russia and China if/when things improve. For any less reputable executives looking to skirt sanctions and tariffs, we hear there’s no shortage of local warehouses willing to relabel your widget as made in Almaty.

🇫🇷 FRANCE French billionaire defies Macron’s call to halt US investments. Bernard Arnault (the luxury magnate worth a cool $150B) has pushed back on the French president’s calls to freeze investments in the US after Trump’s 20% tariffs, arguing it's “very bad” for the state to meddle in private business affairs. (Politico)

Comment: A tricky balance for Arnault, with close ties to both Macron and Trump (he even scored a prime seat at the Trump 2.0 inauguration). Still, any sanctity of Arnault’s public/private rule didn’t stop him allegedly nixing a high-tax coalition emerging from France’s political chaos last year.

🇵🇭 PHILIPPINES President ditches cabinet after lousy midterms.
Following last week’s underwhelming midterm result, President Marcos Jr has called on his cabinet to resign after candidates loyal to his arch-rival and predecessor did surprisingly well (Duterte himself is facing trial in The Hague). (Straits Times)

🇺🇸 UNITED STATES Trump ends Harvard’s international students.
The Department of Homeland Security has announced Harvard can no longer enrol international students, with current enrollees required to transfer elsewhere. The Trump administration argues Harvard has created an anti-American atmosphere and coordinated with China’s Communist Party. (Harvard Crimson)

Comment: Our WhatsApp group has been firing on this topic (plus Japan’s bond market implosion above), exploring possible political, economic, and strategic drivers (not to mention the imminent lawsuits). Join the chat by sharing Intrigue with five or more friends using your unique referral link.

🇲🇺 MAURITIUS UK signs deal to hand Chagos Islands to Mauritius.
The deal with Mauritius enables London to keep using the secretive UK-US Diego Garcia base on a ~$136M annual lease, ending initial speculation Trump 2.0 might seek to overturn the deal. (BBC)

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Embassy statement of the day

Credits: UK Embassy in Washington

The above classic text builds on a long-running US-UK embassy feud about how to brew the perfect tea — the US embassy in London, for example, weighed in last year after a US professor famously argued that the ultimate ‘cuppa’ requires a dash of, umm… salt?

Okay sure, salt in tea is a flagrant violation of human rights law, but these jovial exchanges are a low-lift way to remind citizens that, behind the flags and uniforms, there is real fraternity underpinning today’s alliances.

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Yesterday was International Day for Biological Diversity!

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2) How much have wildlife populations shrunk since 1970?

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3) Which category makes up 80% of the world's biomass?

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