🌍 Why Putin is all in on Pokrovsk
Plus: An ambassadorial assassination?
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Today’s briefing: |
Sponsored by:  |
Good morning Intriguer. Dev Patel’s character in The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel has a terrific mantra capturing the hotel manager’s legendary optimism: "Everything will be all right in the end. If it's not all right, then it's not yet the end."
It’s on my mind as we explore why Putin is throwing 100,000 more lives at another distant town.
Number of the day
~10,000
That’s roughly how many US flights were delayed Sunday (another 2,700 were cancelled), as the government shutdown hits air traffic control. With this all now morphing from a ‘DC problem’ to a ‘US problem’, a possible stopgap deal has now emerged out of the Senate overnight, though it’s unclear when or if it might clear the House.
Russia-Ukraine War
Whether it's government shutdowns or celebrity meltdowns, something's kicked Putin's invasion off the West's front pages lately, and that's probably the way Putin likes it.
But there's now a showdown in Ukraine's eastern Pokrovsk hub, with Putin amassing 110,000 men and burning hundreds more a day to seize what's long been a ghost town.
After 21 months and ~150k-200k casualties, Putin now controls ~65% of this ruined city, home to ~60,000 before the war. But rather than retreat, Ukraine has now deployed special forces, and President Zelensky himself even made a cameo nearby just last week.
So what's going on? Here are the four big drivers.
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Geography
This is not so much about what Pokrovsk does (nothing at this point) but where it is: a rail and road ‘gateway’ key to Ukraine's broader self-defence across the Donbas region. So while this particular fight isn't existential, the outcome will still reshape the chessboard.
And talk of a chessboard takes us to…
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Narrative
Years into Putin's war, it's getting harder to shelter his urban elites from reality: up to 1 in 30 military-aged Russian men might’ve now died or been wounded in Ukraine, while blackouts and gas queues have started to jolt routines. So as Putin's largest-ever summer offensive winds up, he needs a win to justify the cost before winter freezes the front-lines.
Which takes us to Ukraine’s…
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Strategy
Outmanned eight-to-one, it seems improbable for Ukraine to hold the city long-term, but it’s unclear if that’s even still the objective. Rather, like earlier meat grinders in Bakhmut (2023) and Avdiivka (2024), holding on looks like a way to show that while Putin can win a battle, he can't win this war: at this rate, it'd take Putin a century to conquer all of Ukraine.
And that leads us to…
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Time
Tying so much of Putin's forces into one town, for so long, and at such high cost, turns each new postcode into a quagmire. And that just buys Ukraine and its backers more time, whether to send arms, freeze assets, slap sanctions, or hit refineries.
Of course, whether Ukraine and its partners actually make best use of that time is another question entirely. But importantly, as this war’s time horizon keeps stretching out, it continues to leave open the question of which side will actually blink first.
Intrigue’s Take
It’s interesting Zelensky keeps making front-line cameos. He’s always understood — and leveraged — the importance of good PR in his nation’s fight for survival, both to keep his own people united, and his foreign backers invested.
But to specifically turn up near the frontlines rather than (like Putin) occasionally don some fatigues way back in the rear? It also reflects one of the few advantages the Ukrainians have here: the will to fight. Clearly this war is taking a massive toll, but Ukraine has something its invaders lack — existential stakes to defend a homeland and identity.
And amid all the talk of casualties and turf, that might be the biggest wildcard of them all.
Today’s newsletter is sponsored by Minderoo Foundation
Lethal Humidity: The Silent Climate Threat
On humid days, sweat cools you down. But when humidity and heat climb together, the body can’t cope and that’s when “lethal humidity” begins.
It’s one of the least known, fastest growing climate threats on the planet, impacting the way we work, live and rest.
Meanwhile, elsewhere…
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🇧🇷 BRAZIL — COP kick-off. Comment: While the research continues to declare that climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health, governments are still tapping the brakes on their response as they struggle to juggle competing priorities. So negotiators seem to be managing their expectations for any big outcomes out of Belem. |
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🇨🇳 CHINA — Have some chips. Comment: Markets are cheering this as a de-escalation, but it’s possible China just flexed its chip supply leverage, and the Dutch caved. China will also have been wary of Dutch leverage over critical ASML chipmaking machines. Plus everyone got a breather after the US eased certain subsidiary rules as part of the latest Trump-Xi de-escalation. Why’d the US do that? Because China flexed its rare earth leverage. So the real winner here is leverage. |
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🇹🇼 TAIWAN — Diplomatic blitz. Comment: This Taiwanese blitz across Europe — at a relatively high level for a continent that mostly doesn’t recognise Taiwan — looks to us like an effort to diversify the democratic island’s friends amid creeping doubts around US reliability. |
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🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM — What helpful neighbours. Comment: There’s still no formal attribution, though the fact last week’s drones are now being met with a military response among two NATO allies aligns with initial assessments there’s only one player with both the motive and capability (Russia). |
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🇵🇭 PHILIPPINES — Court orders, maybe. Comment: This senator is also a close backer of the Philippine VP, who’s the daughter of former president Duterte and a rival to the current president (Marcos Jr). So sending this senator to The Hague would carry political benefits for the president. |
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🇲🇽 MEXICO — Hit averted. Comment: Maybe Mexico’s denial is just a procedural thing (eg, the comms team not in the loop?), though it’s odd to then pump out such a flat denial. Another possibility is Mexico just doesn’t want to be seen as too close to Israel, whether domestically, internationally, or both. A third possibility is the US and Israel kept Mexico in the dark, then just publicly thanked Mexico afterwards to avoid causing any embarrassment. |
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🇳🇬 NIGERIA — Thanks for the idea! Comment: This museum was meant to be a home for the famous Benin Bronzes looted by British soldiers in the 19th Century, and this might be the source of the protestor anger: a local descendent of the area’s earlier king is now claiming ownership of the artefacts, and plans to showcase them in a museum of his own. |
Extra Intrigue
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the web’s lighter news
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Kim Kardashian has blamed ChatGPT for failing her law exams.
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A Korean politician has apologised for sketching a gorilla during proceedings.
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Irish police have announced that the lion spotted in the woods is actually a dog.
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A British prankster has managed to line up with Australia’s rugby league team during the national anthem.
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And it turns out one of the Louvre’s security passwords might’ve been… Louvre.
Statement of the day
Credits: Pontifex/X
There’s a long-running joke that you can tell someone is using AI when the em dash (—) makes an appearance. Now, we do all our own writing here (and love smashing out a good em dash in amongst the typos), but we still confess to chuckling at the above em dash cameo… where else, but in the middle of the pope’s tweet about AI.
Anyway, whether Leo XIV’s socials team uses AI or not, the pontiff’s timely intervention on the ethical implications of AI design choices seems to have rattled the cage in Silicon Valley, with at least one high-profile Valley billionaire (Andreessen) mocking the pope’s tweet before quietly hitting delete.
Today’s poll
Who do you think will blink first? |
Last Thursday’s poll: What do you think about President Trump's proposal to make earnings calls every six months instead of quarterly?
👍 CEOs need a longer-term view (29%)
👎 Markets need transparency (69%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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👍 J.B: “Not sure how you can blame CEOs for chasing quarterly profits if you perpetuate a system that rewards quarterly profits.”
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👎 F.G: “Software developer here, we sometimes have trouble managing expectations on a Q to Q basis due to changing priorities/scope creep. If we move to an H to H scheme, we won't deliver on half the stuff we promised.”
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✍️ D.S: “How about a 4 month compromise, thus saving money and the associated bureaucracy of reporting 4 times a year.”