Plus: Map of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Will Syria boot Russia out? |
2️⃣ Diplomats on the move |
3️⃣ Map of the day |
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Now, on to today’s briefing on why Russia is being invited back to Syria for talks and what’s happened since Bashar al-Assad fled town.
Earnings season kicks off.
Tesla and Microsoft fell short of market expectations while Meta outperformed. Tesla shares still rebounded quickly and ended up gaining 4%, suggesting investors are less worried about the weak earnings, and more focused on Tesla’s big growth forecasts.
More hostage-prisoner swaps today.
Hamas is scheduled to release three Israeli and five Thai hostages today (Thursday) in return for ~100 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Meanwhile, an Israeli law banning the main UN agency for Palestinians (UNRWA) from operating in Israel comes into force today — Israel has indicated the law will apply in East Jerusalem, where UNRWA is headquartered.
Softbank mulls $25B investment in OpenAI.
Japanese investment corporation SoftBank is now in talks to invest $15-25B in OpenAI, just days after markets bucked at the stunning debut of AI competitor DeepSeek. An investment of $15B or more would make SoftBank OpenAI’s single biggest backer.
Passenger jet collides with army helicopter over DC.
There’s been a mid-air collision between a military helicopter and an American Airlines jet carrying 64 people near Reagan Airport, with both plunging into the Potomac River. Authorities have recovered 19 bodies so far, and an investigation is now underway into what is the first major US air incident since 2009.
Fed holds interest rates steady.
The US Federal Reserve has kept rates at 4.25-4.5% due to a strong labour market and “somewhat elevated” inflation, pausing a recent string of cuts. Donald Trump, who demanded the Fed lower rates last week, has criticised the decision.
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TOP STORY
Will Syria boot Russia out?
Russia’s Mikhail Bogdanov, and Syria’s Ahmed al-Sharaa
Western diplomats and Gulf partners have flocked to Damascus since the fall of Bashar al-Assad, snapping photos with the new caretaker government. But Assad’s long-time backer, Russia, has been awfully quiet. At least until Tuesday.
That’s when Russia’s deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov and Putin’s special presidential envoy to Syria Aleksandr Lavrentiev touched down in Damascus and shook hands with Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa.
It’s a remarkable image above because, in just a few weeks, Russia has gone from bombing al-Sharaa on behalf of Assad, to greeting al-Sharaa while Assad hides in Moscow.
Since seizing power, Al-Sharaa has chosen his words carefully when discussing Russia, calling it “an important country”, and even opposing any instant eviction of the Russians from bases in Syria’s Tartus and Latakia. But he hasn’t exactly encouraged the Russians to visit, either.
So, what’s Moscow’s pitch?
According to Russian state outlets, Bogdanov has framed his visit as a continuation of long-standing ties, but wow — that’s a hard sell when those ties involved you bombing Syrian cities to defend a guy who then had to flee to Moscow in disgrace.
And while Assad was almost completely reliant on Russia for airstrikes, arms, and diplomatic cover to keep his regime afloat, this new rebel-led administration now has many more options – the Turks, Saudis, Qataris, Europeans, and Americans have all moved to engage Syria’s new rulers, bestowing legitimacy and promises of help.
So, what’s Moscow now doing back in Syria?
1. Bases: Russia’s naval base in Tartus and airbase in Latakia are its only major footholds beyond its former Soviet borders, let alone in the Mediterranean. And aside from its naval base in Crimea (now a no-go due to Ukrainian counter-attacks), Tartus has been Russia’s only warm-water port in the world — ie, it doesn’t freeze over.
2. Influence: Those bases extend Russian influence not only across Syria, but also:
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Europe, which has to divide its bandwidth across more Russian movements
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The Middle East, where Russia maintains ties with Iran, the Houthis, and others
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Africa, where Russian mercenaries rely on transhipment via Latakia, and
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Beyond, where these bases are intended as a signal that Russia is a great power.
3. Money: Over the past decade of war, Russia has taken stakes in Syria’s oil, gas, and phosphate sectors, awarding lucrative contracts to its own key oligarchs — eg, remember Yevgeny Prigozhin of ‘Wagner mutiny’ fame? Before his plane exploded north of Moscow, Prigozhin was earning ~$20M a month from Syrian oil extraction alone. And money isn’t just money — in Russia, Putin doles it out to help bolster his grip on power.
So you can see why getting booted out of these bases and Syria more broadly would be a critical loss not just for Russia generally, but Putin specifically — he was the driver of Russia’s failed pro-Assad strategy, after all.
So, what does Free Syria now want with Russia?
1. Assad: The ex-dictator probably figured he’d eke out his days crushing Caspian caviar at some lush compound in Moscow’s Beverly Hills (Rublyovka). But there are now reports Syria is demanding Russia send him back. To be clear, we doubt they’re offering him an exciting new professional development opportunity.
And sure, the Russians might be reluctant to hand Assad over given the signal it sends about Moscow’s dependability. And Putin himself might be reluctant to hand him over given the precedent it sets for, ahem, dictators one day being held to account.
Still, when asked, the Kremlin’s spokesperson simply said "I leave this without any comments.” And that’s the kind of answer that’ll terrify Assad. Then there’s…
2. Damages: Reports have also emerged that Syria’s caretaker government wants Russian compensation for Assad’s Russian-backed crimes. And finally, there’s…
3. Know-how: Not only are most of Syria’s arms Russian, but most of its power plants are Russian-run, too. And now that al-Sharaa is running the place rather than running a rebellion, he might need Russian know-how to get things done, at least in the interim.
So when you think about it, this fledgling new administration in Syria actually has some serious leverage in talks with Russia, and we might see it drive a hard bargain ahead.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
It’s all about the leverage. And that’s why we were intrigued to see the EU just announce on Monday it’s now arguably giving up its own leverage by lifting sanctions on Syria over the coming year. Sure, in a nod to EU values there’s talk of a snap-back if Syria’s new rulers mistreat women or minorities. And ditching sanctions will surely help the Syrian people on their long road to recovery ahead.
But at the same time, there doesn’t seem to be much emphasis on EU interests, which would surely include not having Russian bases perched just across the Caribbean.
Also worth noting:
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Syria has reportedly cancelled a long-term Russian commercial lease over Tartus port, and Russian ships have now withdrawn heavy military equipment from the area, but the specific fate of the Russian base there remains unclear.
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Al-Sharaa’s caretaker government has pledged to convene a national dialogue conference, though there’s no confirmed date yet.
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The US previously had a $10M bounty on al-Sharaa but scrapped it within minutes of senior US diplomat Barbara Leaf meeting the de-facto leader last month.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇵🇰 Pakistan: Journalists in Pakistan are protesting after the national parliament passed a controversial bill allowing authorities to impose heavy fines and even prison sentences on social media users for spreading misinformation. Critics argue the bill will just empower the government to go after dissidents.
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🇪🇸 Spain: A US-based social media analytics firm is reporting that a China-linked influence operation has posed as a grassroots organisation to call for the overthrow of the Spanish government, exploiting widespread grievances about the handling of last year’s floods. The idea is likely to discredit local NGOs who’ve been criticising Beijing’s human rights record.
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🇦🇺 Australia: Authorities are investigating an explosives-packed van which had indications it was intended to be used against Sydney’s Jewish community. Authorities have made arrests “at the periphery” of the investigation, while political leaders again vow action after a string of anti-Semitic attacks in Australia.
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🇨🇦 Canada: The central bank has slashed growth forecasts for 2025 (from 2.1% to 1.8%) and 2026 (2.3% to 1.8%). It’s a response to Canada’s new restrictions on immigration, and doesn’t yet take into account possible US tariffs.
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🇸🇩 Sudan: The International Criminal Court has issued unspecified arrest warrants for people involved in atrocities carried out in Sudan’s Darfur region. Earlier this month, the ICC also issued warrants against the Taliban supreme leader and Afghanistan’s chief justice for crimes against women.
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EXTRA INTRIGUE
Diplomats on the move
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🇨🇳 China’s top diplomat Wang Yi is scheduled to visit the UK in February for talks with his British counterpart.
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Ditte Juul Jørgensen, one of the 🇪🇺 EU's top energy officials, is in the US this week to discuss energy exports to the bloc, as EU officials mull restarting Russian gas imports to the EU as a bargaining chip to end the war.
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🇹🇳 Tunisian envoy Mohamed Ali Al-Nafti travelled to Algeria on Monday to discuss the construction of dams on shared waterways.
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The President of the 🇺🇳 United Nations General Assembly and former Cameroonian PM Philemon Yang is in India until 8 February at Delhi’s invitation.
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And 🇮🇩 Indonesian leader Prabowo Subianto has reportedly pushed back his trip to Pakistan, which was initially scheduled for a few weeks after his visit to rival India.
MAP OF THE DAY
What are maps supposed to do now that Donald Trump has decreed a new name for the Gulf of Mexico? Well, Google Maps announced this week that US users will see the Gulf of America, while users in Mexico will still see the Gulf of Mexico. As for everyone else? Much like being in Oprah’s live studio audience, you’ll absolutely get it all (both names).
DAILY POLL
What deal do you think will emerge between Russia and Syria? |
Yesterday’s poll: How do you think the West should respond to hybrid attacks such as undersea cable sabotage?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🚢 More deterrence (eg patrols) (44%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💥 More sanctions (10%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🥷 Proportional hybrid counter-attacks (36%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👋 Chill, they're a desperate distraction (6%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🍌 Chill, they're probably accidents (2%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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🚢 L.E: “Escalating with Russia or China seems to just raise the stakes. Doing nothing seems too passive. Patrols and other vigilance sends a message that Baltic countries are paying attention to their borders and infrastructure.”
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🥷 S.A.M: “Proportional counter-attacks against the states, and brutal business-closing fines against the specific ships and shipping companies. Make it too expensive for the ships to cooperate and the state actors to fix.”
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✍️ D.K: “Start arresting the Russian shadow fleet. They travel without insurance — a huge potential cost to the Baltic fishery should one leak.”
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