Announcement of the day

2:00pm

That’s when President Trump is due to make an unspecified announcement today (Tuesday), after a pause in public appearances fuelled days of wild online speculation around his health.

Summit season

We’ve had two iconic images in a week, each triggering a certain amount of international “ermahgerd”: first, there’s the romance of the big Taylor-Travis “we just got engaged!” pic, ratifying ties between the 14-time Grammy-winner and NFL’s GOAT tight end.

And now there’s the bromance of the Xi-Putin-Modi “bring on the multipolar order!” pic, trumpeting ties among the world’s two most populous states (and the world’s largest).

But why now? China’s Xi Jinping just hosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in the port city of Tianjin, two hours out of Beijing. The SCO emerged after the Cold War as China moved to stabilise its western frontiers and suppress separatism.

These days, Beijing sees the 10-member bloc (featuring Russia, India, Iran, Pakistan and most ‘Stans) more as a way to project soft power out across its Eurasian periphery while also seeking to counter US influence and usher in a more multipolar world.

So let’s take a quick look at how each world leader sees this summit, starting with…

1. 🇮🇳 Narendra Modi

• This is Modi’s first visit to regional rival China in ~seven years. That’s a really long absence when you remember they’re neighbours, but it continues their cautious thaw after their infamous high-altitude border skirmish of 2020.

• Of course, the timing also matches a vivid sense of betrayal amid 50% US tariffs over India’s Russian oil shopping spree: Modi’s message here is “I’ve got options”.

2. 🇷🇺 Vladimir Putin

• As in India, Russian outlets are rolling footage of their leader on the world stage — matching Putin’s vaunted Trump-limo ride with a lengthy one alongside Modi, it all aims to defy Western-led sanctions, condemnation, and isolation. And…

• Notching up his ~42nd meeting with Xi (and his sixth since invading Ukraine), Putin is also trying to signal the strength of his ties with China, whose support has (with India) really helped keep Putin’s economy afloat. Speaking of Xi…

3. 🇨🇳 Xi Jinping

• Hosting 20+ world leaders, Xi gets to pitch himself to his own people as China’s strong and indispensable statesman amid all the economic uncertainty in the air.

• He also gets to pitch his China to the world as leading a ‘fairer’ (ie, non-US-led) order, built on a new “global governance initiative”. Like his earlier initiatives on development, security, and ‘civilisation’, there’s scant detail here, though Xi emphasises the role of “sovereign equality” and the “international rule of law”.

So there you go, dear Intriguer: from Super Bowl-sized rings to sovereign equality, it’s a week of iconic partnerships — the question is which of them will stand the test of time.

Intrigue’s Take

Something we miss about life back on the other side of the encryption wall is the way folks on the inside can be a little less breathless about each new headline. Diplomats and intel types don’t generate revenue from clicks, meaning they can take a deep breath and ask the questions few are taking the time to pose out in public. Here are just three:

First, does this Tianjin summit really change anything? Does it slow Putin’s losses on the battlefield? Does it plug Xi’s property collapse? Does it help Modi dodge Trump’s tariffs? Will Xi’s new ‘SCO Bank’ succeed where his BRICS Bank has not? No.

Second, will this Tianjin photo opp help its participants resolve all their historical rivalries? Will it help (say) India make up with Pakistan, India with China, Uzbekistan with Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan with Kyrgyzstan, and so on? No.

And third, it didn’t get airtime, but where was Modi right before China? He was in Western-aligned Japan! So maybe his China cameo was less some radical new pivot, and more a vivid continuation along the path we already know well (India is multi-aligned).

Now, none of this is to suggest this SCO summit means nothing. Rather, our instincts just nudge us to query too many breathless takes that maybe it means everything.

But then the question becomes… what does this SCO summit mean? For us, its ambitious if fractious membership still points to dreams of displacing the US, but not replacing it.

Sound even smarter:

• Several leaders (but not Modi) now head to Beijing for China’s big WWII Victory Day tomorrow (Wednesday), along with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.

• No formal US allies are SCO members, though some (like Turkey and Saudi Arabia) are SCO ‘dialogue partners’ as they try to balance competing ties.

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

Here’s what people around the world are googling: 

• 🇧🇷 Brazilian folks looked up ‘Setembro amarelo’ (Yellow September) as suicide awareness month kicks off. 

• 🇲🇾 Malaysian film fans searched for “Avengers doomsday trailer leak” after Marvel dropped a sizzle reel that then triggered a flood of fake, alleged ‘leaks’.

• And netizens in 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan googled ‘5000 tenge’ as the country phases out old 5,000 tenge (~$9) banknotes in favour of newer, higher-security notes (which also ditch Russian captions). 

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Picture of the day

It doesn’t get much more metal than playing flaming bagpipes while two shirtless bros wave red flares in the air.

And yet, this does get more metal when we tell you the men in question, three brothers from Scotland, were celebrating after breaking the world record for fastest unsupported row across the Pacific Ocean. The Maclean trio finished the 14,484km (9,000-mile) journey from Peru to Australia in 139 days, 5 hours and 52 minutes. Not sure how many seconds.

The first thing they asked for on their arrival? The latest International Intrigue edition Pizza.

Today’s poll

Yesterday’s poll: What do you think about the Xi, Putin, and Modi meeting in China this week?

📸 It's just a photo opp (20%)
🤝 They're re-aligning against US pressure (78%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)

Your two cents:

• 🤝 S.K: “A massive U-turn from Modi, after cultivating Trump's support in his 1st term.”

• 📸 D.D: “They’re still competing with each other. Strongmen don’t have real lasting alliances.”

• ✍️ S.S.P: “It's an indication of a global shift that goes beyond merely the U.S. pressure brought to bear by the Trump Administration – it is the breakdown of the U.S.-centered global order and China filling the power vacuum.”