Plus: Kim drops a banger
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Xi shakes up China’s military (again) |
2️⃣ North Korea drops an absolute banger |
3️⃣ A landslide referendum in Ecuador |
Hi Intriguer. Soon after securing a controversial third term as China’s leader in 2022, President Xi Jinping laid out his priorities. They were, in no particular order, the ‘reunification’ of Taiwan, the development of a world-leading conventional and nuclear missile program, and to catch all the pesky foreign spies running rampant in China.
I remember multiple commentators arguing at the time that Xi was falling into ‘The Mao Zedong trap’ – the need to increase internal control or pursue rampant nationalism and aggression to keep his grip on power.
In fact, Xi has done both. He’s stoked fears that foreign powers are trying to prevent China’s ’great rejuvenation’ – just yesterday his defence ministry released an ominous video warning that “foreign spies are everywhere”.
And he’s continued to boost his already firm grip over state power by announcing a surprise shakeup of China’s military over the weekend. That’s the focus of our top story today.
PS – Do you live around DC? Join us this Wednesday April 24th for a drink and chat with spy-turned-author, Jack Beaumont!
US House approves military aid bills
The House passed a $95B foreign security assistance package on Saturday, with the Senate signalling it could approve the legislation as soon as tomorrow (Tuesday). Three separate bills in the package pledge aid to Ukraine, Israel, and US allies in the Indo-Pacific; a fourth could lead to the sale of frozen Russian assets to help fund Ukraine, as well as the forced divestment of TikTok by its China-based parent company. Subject to what happens in the Senate, US arms shipments could arrive in Ukraine as soon as this week.
US to sanction Israeli Defence Force unit
The US is expected to sanction the IDF’s ‘Netzah Yehuda’ battalion for human rights violations in the West Bank. If confirmed, they’d be the first US sanctions on an IDF unit. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has criticised the plan, and vowed to “act by all means against these moves.”
India to re-run elections in violence-hit province
The Indian election authority will re-run voting at 11 polling stations in Manipur after armed men attacked the locations and damaged voting booths. The region has been rocked by months of ethnic violence. Voting in the world’s biggest election is now underway, and will end in June.
Tesla slashes prices amid slump
Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company has cut its prices in a number of major markets, including the US, China, and Germany, amid declining sales and increased competition. Tesla announced last week it would lay off 10% of its global workforce.
EU heat-related deaths rise
A new report by the EU’s climate service has found that heat-related deaths rose by 30% in the last 20 years. Europe is the world’s fastest-warming continent.
TOP STORY
Xi shakes up China’s military (again)
Xi Jinping’s formal flag handover at China’s new ‘Information Support Force’ on Friday
In amongst the weekend's historic vote in Congress, a surprise album-drop by Taylor Swift, and another new episode of Bluey, you could be forgiven for not following the movements of China's leader, Xi Jinping. In fact, we do forgive you.
But on Friday night in Beijing, Xi arrived at a nondescript office and casually announced yet another military shake-up – the largest in almost a decade. What's going on?
Shortly after Xi took power in 2012, he started emphasising his vision to restore China's greatness (“the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation"). And it was soon apparent that a key part of Xi’s plan involved reforming China's military.
He went on to set two clear goals for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA):
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A military that "obeys the party's commands": while technically loyal to the Communist Party (rather than China's constitution or state), the powerful PLA has itself long been a key political and economic player. So it’s been central to Xi’s efforts to consolidate his grip on power.
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A military that "can fight and win": the PLA hasn't really been tested since its brief but bloody invasion of Vietnam in 1979, which was a disaster. So Xi wants a high-tech, modern, and more integrated force befitting a China he’s now restoring to greatness.
With those objectives in mind, Xi pushed through his first big PLA reforms in 2015, creating the ‘Strategic Support Forces’ (SSF) as a fifth military branch, alongside the PLA's ground forces, navy, air force, and rocket force.
The idea was twofold: adding a fifth branch reporting to Xi directly (via his Central Military Commission, or CMC) would help dilute the power of the PLA’s other established branches; and, it’d help the PLA lift its game for modern warfare across domains like intelligence, space, and cyber.
And that's where Friday's announcement comes in: Xi just abolished the SSF, only eight years after he created it. In its place, the SSF’s component parts are now four lower-level 'arms' of the PLA, each still reporting directly to Xi :
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The Information Support Force is tasked with providing intelligence and psychological warfare support
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The Aerospace Force will support China’s military objectives from space (though it denies militarising space)
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The Cyberspace Force focuses on fighting cyber wars, and
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The Joint Logistics Support Force echoes that classic Schwarzkopf quote (“amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics”) while also diluting the army’s power by yoinking its long-held logistics function.
But why does all this matter?
As bureaucratic as it sounds (like Barry from HR re-drawing the office org-chart for the 50th time) – and as intriguing as it is to see China seemingly acknowledge its cyber and space forces for the first time – the value here is really the window this announcement offers into what’s still such an opaque system.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
So, once we look through Friday's small and frosted window, what do we see?
Xi himself might see some positives: he’ll hope this shake-up reminds his generals who’s boss: he was reportedly caught unawares by last year’s spy balloon saga, with echoes of his predecessor’s PLA humiliation in 2011.
Xi will also hope Friday’s shake-up signals his ability to course correct: each of the PLA’s new ‘arms’ focuses on an area where Russia has demonstrated notable defects in Ukraine: information, space, cyber, and logistics.
But from the outside, there are also some negatives on display. First, it shows Xi is still prioritising control over competence (eg, there’s nothing to suggest his inner circle is equipped to, say, shape cyber or psychological warfare).
Second, he’s still prioritising loyalty over leadership: he told Friday’s generals to “resolutely obey” the Party, and they duly said they’ll “diligently listen” to orders. But the thing about a modern military is its officers show leadership and initiative at the unit level, generating options while obeying orders.
And third, Xi’s idea was probably to flatten and optimise the PLA’s structure, but he’s arguably just shifted the bottleneck from the PLA to within Xi’s own inner circle: if a conflict breaks out, eight separate corners of the PLA will now be reporting directly for orders. And that sounds like a recipe for paralysis.
Also worth noting:
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The head of China’s former Strategic Support Forces (Ju Qiansheng) went missing last year amid reports of corruption. He’s now re-emerged, though it’s unclear where he’s been, or what he does now.
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The US announced the formation of its own space force in 2018.
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According to a study released just hours ago, China’s annual defence spending is $296B or 1.6% of GDP, growing at 6% per year. Annual US defence spending is around $916B or 3.3% of GDP, growing at 2.3% each year. Russia is at $109B or 5.9% of GDP, growing at 24% last year.
🕵️ SPECIAL EDITION: NATHAN LAW, HONG KONG DEMOCRACY LEADER
“As the nature of Hong Kong moved closer to China and further away from the world, its economy lost its optimistic outlook.”
One of the most prominent democracy leaders to emerge during Hong Kong’s historic street protests of 2019 was Nathan Law. We just sat down with him to hear his thoughts on the latest in Hong Kong, his political asylum in the UK, and what he misses most about home.
Curious to hear from Nate? Simply refer two or more friends to Intrigue using your unique referral code below, and you’ll receive our special edition (and more) in your inbox!
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇨🇳 China: Nearly half of China’s major cities are sinking, according to new research released on Friday. The study’s authors found that 45% of China's urban land is sinking faster than 3 millimetres per year due to declining water tables and the weight of the urban environment.
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🇬🇧 UK: The UK has turned down an offer from the EU to work towards a deal to make it easier for Brits aged 18-30 to live, study and work across the EU. Both the ruling Conservative party and Labour opposition say any free movement pact with the EU is off the table.
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🇲🇻 Maldives: The new China-friendly ruling party is poised to win a two-thirds majority in yesterday’s parliamentary elections. President Mohamed Muizzu has asked voters to allow him a majority in parliament to fulfil his electoral promises, including an ‘India out’ campaign.
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🇪🇨 Ecuador: President Noboa has won handily yesterday’s referendum to toughen the state’s ability to go after armed gangs, just weeks after his controversial raid of Mexico’s embassy. The 11 measures include making it easier to deploy the military alongside the police, reducing obstacles to extradition, and lengthening prison sentences.
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🇰🇪 Kenya: The government has confirmed that Kenya’s military chief General Francis Ogolla was on board the helicopter that crashed on Thursday, killing him and nine others. Nairobi has appointed a team to investigate the circumstances of the incident.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
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You’ve heard of snakes on a plane, now get ready for snakes on a train. A Japanese bullet train has experienced a rare delay (albeit for 17 minutes) after a passenger spotted a 40cm (16 inch) snake inside.
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A young elephant seal has stunned Canadian wildlife protection services after making a 200km (126 mile) trek back to the same beach from which he was removed just a week ago.
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Residents of a Swiss town have been left disappointed after high winds prevented their annual burning of a snowman effigy.
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Scientists in Portugal have used teeny tiny treadmills to discover more about how fruit-flies walk. Spoiler (and to quote Zoolander): they’re not really ‘ambi-turners’.
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Sheep farmers around the world are apparently using Axe body spray (once marketed as being “deep and sensual with a fresh top note set on a warm oriental base”) to stop their rams from fighting.
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And officials in China’s Nanjing have released plans for a new train station that resembles the city’s plum blossoms, but millions of netizens have pointed out that the design looks a lot like a sanitary pad.
SONG OF THE DAY
A screenshot from North Korea’s new music video.
What do you get for the man who already has it all? If you’re in North Korea, you go ahead and drop the hottest new track of 2024, praising Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un as a “friendly father” and a “great leader”.
The accompanying music video just aired on state TV, and it’s like Kim just ticked ‘all of the above’ when offered a menu of options: wild lighting, bold choreography, shiny trombones, cheerful sailors, slow-motion shots of people tossing stuff into the air, vigorous fist pumping, and lyrics like “the love you [Kim Jong Un] give is like the sea”.
If we could just offer one note? A key-change at the end would’ve been epic.
DAILY POLL
Which of China's military arms do you think is most important? |
Last Thursday’s poll: Should lowering debt be a priority for your government?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ✂️ Yes, it's gotten seriously out of hand (46%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ 💰 Longer term, sure, but cutting too hard too soon is risky (43%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🎯 The debt is driving growth and investment, it's fine (10%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)
Your two cents:
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✂️ R.L: “Collective sovereign debt is the big elephant in the room that democracies, which live in short-term decision making cycles, have not shown any ability to deal with. At some point it will cause the global economic cycle to collapse.”
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🎯D.D: “The optimum level of debt is that which gets us to the fullest potential productivity and growth of the economy while providing as many public goods as possible (from sustaining the world order to healthcare). Current US debt levels appear to be quite sustainable and are supporting a surprising level of growth.”
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💰 M.C.M: ”Debt is a long-term disease for any economy, but so is austerity. A slow and steady approach in its reduction will ensure its lowering, while not endangering the overall upwards economic trajectory.”
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✍️ A.R: “The real question is what level of fiscal spending, taxation and wealth redistribution produces the optimum growth for an economy.”