Report of the day

Stabilizing the US-China Rivalry

We recently highlighted the debate around the above new RAND thinktank report, which argues (eg) that the US should settle for “co-existence” with China. Well intriguingly — and it’s unclear why — but RAND has now withdrawn that report for “further review”!

Your COP and G20 wrap-up

We just had a rare geopolitical Barbenheimer, with two big yet distinct summits wrapping the same weekend (both boycotted by the US, btw).

Here are the top quotes you should know, starting with…

🇧🇷 The 30th COP climate summit, Belém

1. "Trees can be worth more standing than cut down" – Mohamed Irfaan Ali, president of Guyana

Ali here was highlighting one of the summit's clearer outcomes: a $125B 'Tropical Forests Forever Facility' to pay certain nations for preserving their trees. With an initial ~$6B seeding from Norway and others, it's now up to the World Bank to get it running.

The other big COP outcome was…

2. "Adaptation is not optional" – Simon Stiell, the UN climate chief (pre-COP quote)

Wealthier countries pledged to triple their support to help poorer players adapt to climate change: think more flood defences in Bangladesh, or sea-level barriers in Vanuatu.

Interestingly, this tripling was meant as a carrot to get the rest of the world to commit to burning fewer fossil fuels, but instead, the summit just yoinked that carrot and…

3. "A climate decision that cannot even say ‘fossil fuels’ is not neutrality, it is complicity" – Juan Carlos Monterrey Gómez, Panama’s COP representative

This COP was meant to hammer out the details of our pledge to "transition away" from fossil fuels, but petrostates like Saudi Arabia and Russia said no, so Brazil announced Colombia’s voluntary April summit will take this forward outside the UN instead.

Now order some non-free-range eggs on that gas-guzzling Gulfstream over to…

🇿🇦 The 20th summit of G20 leaders, Johannesburg

1. "We have what we call sufficient consensus" – Vincent Magwenya, spokesperson for South Africa’s president

With the US boycotting and a DC-friendly Argentina withholding its own signature at the last minute, there was no consensus at this year's G20 summit in South Africa.

But South Africa’s Ramaphosa called their bluff and published a G20 declaration anyway. It’s like saying your family WhatsApp has “sufficient consensus” on Christmas plans, even though Uncle Gus and the cousins made clear they hate your Christmas plans.

Anyway, Ramaphosa’s point was clear: in a multipolar world, a US boycott might just end up curbing America's own influence. Meanwhile…

2. "We will promote mutually beneficial cooperation and peaceful use of key minerals" – Li Qiang, premier of China

Li (repping his boss Xi) copped a veiled G20 rebuke of China's "unilateral trade actions" that limit the world's access to critical mineral bottlenecks: those curbs have rattled not just US military and tech leaders, but also European and Japanese automakers.

So Li announced a low-detail "global mining initiative" with 19 developing nations promising "stable and smooth” supplies. Also hinting at mineral deals with Germany and others, it's a reminder China is still leveraging its bottlenecks to drive its own agenda.

That’s why America’s own Export-Import Bank (EXIM) is now reportedly investing $100B to secure US and allied supply chains. But there was a bigger focus at this year's G20…

3. “We used this presidency to place the priorities of Africa and the Global South firmly at the heart of the G20 agenda” – Cyril Ramaphosa, president of South Africa

You could see this both in the G20’s guestlist (with ~20 guests like Angola, Namibia, and Nigeria) but also the focus: the G20's first explicit prioritisation of inequality reduction.

It's mostly aspirational, though the associated report (led by Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz) includes some big findings (41% of recent new wealth went to the top 1%) and recommendations (tackle corporate concentration and large capital gains).

And with that, Ramaphosa banged the gavel, though there was a spat over how to hand it to next year’s US hosts (they've agreed to meet at South Africa's foreign ministry).

Intrigue’s Take

There was something grimly poetic about a gridlocked climate summit in the Amazon literally bursting into flames on Thursday. But here we are.

And no offence to Swedes or teens, but it’s also a reminder of how much our world has changed since the days when a Swedish teen could scold world leaders to attention.

To be clear, that’s not because the research has changed — to the contrary, it still warns that “climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health”.

The change is in the politics, and it’s playing out in the G20, too: a collapse in trust is eroding our world’s willingness and ability to adapt.

Sound even smarter:

• The COP statement did include this line: "the global transition towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development is irreversible and the trend of the future". 

• Brazil dubbed its main COP outcome text ‘Mutirao', which roughly translates to collective mobilisation.

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news

• A prisoner Down Under is suing for his human right to eat Vegemite.

• A China-based firm has somehow bought the CIA’s insurance agency.

• A ferry has run aground in South Korea because the captain was on his phone.

• US rapper Eminem is suing an Australian beach umbrella brand called Swim Shady.

• And a British grocery store is defending pricing a beef wellington at ~$255.

Embassy of the day

Paris has plenty of financial headaches at the moment but one the Élysée probably didn’t expect landing on its desk is a half century old property dispute out of Baghdad.

The descendants of the former owners of the French embassy building in Iraq are now demanding €21.5M in back rent and moral damages, effectively accusing Paris of squatting! France is reportedly countering that it was Iraq’s own Ba'athist laws that seized the family’s property, but the family is in turn highlighting that these particular laws specifically persecuted them and others as Jewish emigres.

The case is now bouncing between the courts, Baghdad, and Paris, with no end in sight.

Today’s poll

Last Thursday’s poll: What do you think this US 28-point plan for Ukraine is?

🧍 A Witkoff original (25%)
🖋️ A high-ball to make Ukraine more flexible (36%)
👊 A fait accompli Trump will impose on Ukraine (33%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (6%)

Your two cents:

• 🖋️ F.G: “I think it also helps get Putin to the table, since he has been so reluctant to negotiate in good faith.”

• 👊 T.S: “Flexibility is a code word for total Ukrainian surrender.”

• ✍️ E.K.M: “What it means for Russia and Ukraine doesn't matter. It's throwing anything and everything at the wall to let Trump claim he's a peacemaker to his domestic audience.”