Plus: TV show of the day.
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Why the Saudis just made nice with Iran |
2️⃣ Why Swedes are googling ‘Västerås’ |
3️⃣ TV series of the day |
Hi Intriguer. When I served in Israel during the first Trump Administration, there was one thing that earned quite a bit of consensus among key players in the Middle East. And that thing, dear reader, was that the Trump Administration’s foreign policies were largely welcomed by the region.
For Saudi Arabia, it was because Trump brought them back into the US fold. For Israel, it was because Trump ripped up the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) and moved the US embassy to Jerusalem. Even hardliners in Iran were happy when Trump ditched the JCPOA, as it vindicated their own scepticism all along.
Make of that what you will, but I sense that this incoming second Trump presidency has got Middle Eastern players ready for another reset. We dive into that in our top story today.
P.S. – It’s not too late to join us live this morning (11 AM ET) to explore what Trump’s return means for global power, diplomacy, and conflict. Register here!
Trump makes key cabinet appointments.
Reports are emerging that Donald Trump has tapped Congressman Mike Waltz as his national security adviser and Senator Marco Rubio as his secretary of state. Both are establishment figures and known as China and Iran hawks. They’ve both also voiced support for Ukraine’s self-defence, though have lately called for an end to the war (including through more pressure on Russia), in order to reprioritise US resources towards competing with China. The Rubio appointment is apparently not yet a done deal.
Aid to Gaza falls to lowest level in 11 months.
According to Israeli figures, the amount of aid entering Gaza has declined further despite a US ultimatum set to expire this week. Meanwhile, Israel’s new foreign minister Gideon Sa’ar has hinted at progress towards a ceasefire with Hezbollah, though another cabinet member has dismissed his comments.
Germany to hold elections on February 23.
Germans will head to the polls earlier than expected after Olaf Scholz’s ruling coalition crumbled last week. He’s now expected to face a vote of confidence before Christmas.
Airlines halt flights to Haiti.
The decision by companies including Spirit Airlines and Jet Blue comes after a passenger plane was damaged by gunfire when it attempted to land in Port-au-Prince. The suspension will be in effect at least until Thursday.
Mauritius opposition snags stunning electoral win.
The opposition coalition has won all seats in parliament, ejecting Pravind Jugnauth from power after leaked phone recordings of politicians and business leaders engulfed the island nation in a corruption scandal. Veteran politician Navin Ramgoolam will now return as PM for a third time, following earlier stints in 1995-2000 and 2005-2014.
Over 30 killed after car ploughs through crowd in China.
At least 35 people have been killed after a car ran through a crowd exercising outside a stadium in southern China. Initial reports suggest the motive may have been related to personal rather than ideological grievances.
TOP STORY
Saudi Arabia makes nice with Iran
Saudi Arabia’s crown prince (‘MBS’) hosted a joint Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation summit in Riyadh yesterday (Monday). And the crown prince, one of the first Gulf leaders to score a congratulatory call with Donald Trump, didn’t mince his words. He called for:
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1️⃣ Establishing a Palestinian state
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2️⃣ Preserving Lebanese sovereignty, and
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3️⃣ Reaffirming “its condemnation and utter rejection of the genocide perpetrated by Israel against the Palestinian people.”
It was all on-brand for MBS, except perhaps for one line: he called on the international community to oblige Israel “to respect the sovereignty of the sisterly Islamic Republic of Iran and not to violate its lands”, while Iran’s vice president nodded along. Why’s that off-brand?
Tehran and Riyadh have long been arch rivals as they compete for influence, fanned by differences in theology (Shiite vs Sunni), linguo-ethnicity (Persian vs Arabic), oil strategy (anti vs pro quota), US ties (foe vs ally) and broader leadership (the Iranians resent the Saudi clout that stems from the kingdom’s custody of Islam’s two holiest sites).
And that rivalry has played out in all kinds of ways as they’ve backed opposing sides everywhere from Syria to Yemen and Bahrain.
But there’ve been a few steps towards reconciliation since China’s Xi Jinping finalised a historic truce last year, including naval exercises and political talks last month, military talks this weekend, and another direct leader phone call just on Sunday night.
So why are they now making friends?
The two have a common cause around the plight of the Palestinians, the sanctity of Islam’s third-holiest site in Jerusalem, and grievances against Israel. And you can see that reflected in President Pezeskhian’s praise for this week’s summit in Riyadh, noting it’ll have “tangible and effective results in stopping the bloodshed in Gaza, Lebanon.”
But this Saudi-Iran rapprochement goes bigger than the Palestinians alone. For the Saudis, public advocacy for a Palestinian state is also:
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Popular with the kingdom’s young population, which in turn is crucial for the monarchy’s ongoing legitimacy, and
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Popular across the region, where the Saudis are also in a race for influence against the UAE.
Meanwhile, the Saudis also know they are themselves the ultimate prize for Donald Trump to finish what he started via his Abraham Accords: ie, normalising Israel’s ties with its neighbours. So getting cosy with a Trump foe like Iran, while wedging Trump against an ally like Israel, just raises the price it can extract from Trump to normalise with Israel.
As for Iran? It’s one of the world’s most isolated regimes, and more-so now that a) its proxy strategy via groups like Hamas and Hezbollah is in tatters, and b) the man it’s been trying to assassinate just got re-elected to the White House. So any chance at surviving the tougher US sanctions headed its way will require reviving economic ties to the Gulf.
In short, Tehran needs whatever friends it can get.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
So what does all this mean for the broader region and the world?
Regionally, the Israelis will be a little rattled to see two of the Gulf’s largest powers uniting in opposition. But there’ve also been indications the Saudis have used their new influence in Tehran to de-escalate things this year, so there’s an argument this surprising rapprochement could be a stabilising force in the bigger picture.
Meanwhile internationally, this really feels like another straw in the wind: as powers doubt US commitment, everyone’s hedging their bets.
Also worth noting:
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Counterintuitively perhaps, another driver for the Saudis may have been the Iranian-backed Houthi drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities back in 2019. The muted US response arguably left the Saudis questioning the extent of US defence commitments, and rethinking their approach to Iran.
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While this summit was underway in Riyadh, Israel’s new foreign minister told journalists in Jerusalem that Palestinian statehood is not “realistic” right now.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇷 South Korea: South Korea has accused its reclusive northern neighbour of jamming its GPS system, impacting military and civilian ships and aircraft in the Yellow Sea. Seoul accused North Korea of a similar attack earlier this year.
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🇪🇸 Spain: Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has announced an additional $4B aid package for the areas affected by Spain’s devastating floods last month. It comes on top of an $11B pledge last week, and follows heightened criticism of the government’s emergency response.
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🇮🇩 Indonesia: Jakarta has reiterated it doesn’t recognise China’s vast claims over the South China Sea, despite newly-inaugurated President Prabowo Subianto just signing a pact to jointly develop their maritime resources. An international tribunal rejected China’s claims back in 2016, but Beijing refuses to recognise the ruling.
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🇭🇹 Haiti: Less than six months into his gig, Haiti’s transitional council has fired interim PM Garry Conille, reflecting continued political instability as gang violence rages on. The transitional council is set to replace him with entrepreneur Alix Didier Fils-Aimé.
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🇧🇫 Burkina Faso: The ruling military junta is planning to reinstate the death penalty, according to sources close to power. An earlier government abolished capital punishment back in 2018, and there hasn’t been an execution since 1988.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what the world’s been googling lately
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🇦🇷 Argentinians are searching ‘dia del soltero’ (Singles Day), a celebration from China which falls on the symbolic date of 11/11.
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🇧🇾 Belarusians googled ‘ботинки белаз’ (Belaz Boots) after the Belarusian footwear brand released a line of shoes suspiciously similar to the iconic Timberlands.
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🇸🇪 And Swedes looked up ‘Västerås’ as suspicions emerged that a new Russian church in the strategically located town could be a front for Russian espionage.
TV SERIES OF THE DAY
Xi Zhongxun, the late father of China’s current president. Credits: Xinhua News Agency.
We usually give you our entertainment suggestions on Friday, but we couldn’t wait to introduce you to Time in the Northwest, the new 39-part historical drama recounting (in eye-watering detail) the life of President Xi Jinping’s father, Xi Zhongxun.
The series, which dropped on state TV last week, chronicles the senior Xi’s life from his youth in rural China, to his rise through the ranks of the Chinese Communist Party, and his role in China’s civil war. We haven’t got to episode 39 yet, but the series seems to end before 1963, when the senior Xi’s own party purged him.
Though perhaps this particular writers-room decision isn’t so surprising when you remember the series was financed by the Communist Party’s Central Propaganda Department.
DAILY POLL
Can arch rivals make up? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think Trump can end the Russo-Ukraine war?
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🕊️ Yes, he has leverage and can force a deal (35%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🔥 No, the causes of this war will outlast a Trump presidency (62%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
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🔥 R.C.F: “Even if this war is declared ‘over’, and if the cessation of hostilities is credited to Trump's mediation, the actual conflict will not end. At best, it will result in a nation separated by two hostile powers (Europe and Russia), similar in fashion to Cold War Germany. At worst, it will continue to be a guerrilla conflict.”
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🕊️ L.K: “The US president is the most powerful person in the world. If anyone can end the Russo-Ukraine war, it's him.”
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✍️ C.L: “I don’t think he has the diplomacy skills or understanding of the situation to effectively end the war. Unless his plan is to let Putin have what he’s stolen with no consequences.”
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