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IN TODAYโS EDITION
1๏ธโฃ What military aid means for Ukraine |
2๏ธโฃ Why Ecuador is now suing Mexico |
3๏ธโฃ Why Finlandโs flagship carrier is cancelling flights |
Hi Intriguer.ย
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At least seven countries now generate virtually all their electricity from renewable sources: Albania, Bhutan, Nepal, Paraguay, Iceland, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
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That list contains some surprises (at least for me) though so does the list of energy sources. Itโs less a โlistโ, and more a single dot point: hydro-power. Itโll be interesting to watch that country list grow, and those sources diversify.
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For now, letโs dive into todayโs briefing, with an intriguing update on where the Russo-Ukraine war might be headed next.
THE HEADLINES
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Hopes rise for Gaza ceasefire-hostage deal.
An Israeli delegation is flying to Cairo to resume talks on a new hostages-ceasefire deal, after reportedly accepting a drop (from 40 to 33) in the number of hostages Hamas would release, and allowing displaced Palestinians to return to Northern Gaza – all under cover of a 40-day cessation of hostilities. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has urged Hamas to take the deal.
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Samsungโs semiconductors are profitable again.
The Korean tech giantโs semiconductor division has returned to profitability for the first time since 2022 thanks to rising prices and the AI boom. Despite reporting a 13% Q1 revenue bump to $52.14B, Samsungโs shares are still down slightly this year as it seeks to catch up to rivals selling higher-end chips.
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China fires water cannons at Philippine vessels (again).
Four Chinese Coast Guard vessels have fired water cannons at Philippine ships in the South China Sea earlier today (Tuesday). China, which claims most of the Sea on a basis rejected by an international tribunal, says the Philippine ships โintruded without China’s permissionโ. The Philippines, which was attempting to deliver supplies to fishermen at Scarborough Shoal, is accusing Beijing of โharassment and provocative actionsโ. This latest incident comes amid joint US-Philippine military exercises.
Leaks suggest Iranian authorities assaulted, killed protester.
New documents passed to the BBC appear to confirm Iranian security forces sexually assaulted and killed 16-year-old Nika Shakarami after she was arrested for taking part in protests against the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini. Iranian authorities denied any involvement at the time, and later ruled the teenager had died by suicide.
Europeโs largest bank is down a CEO.ย
Noel Quinn has unexpectedly announced his retirement after nearly 5 years as HSBC CEO, triggering a search for his successor.
TOP STORY
Russia presses on as Ukraineโs Western military aid nears
L-R: Former Norwegian PM and outgoing NATO chief, Jens Stoltenberg; Ukraineโs military head, Oleksandr Syrskyi.
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NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg made a surprise appearance in Ukraine on Monday and delivered a key message: โitโs not too late for Ukraine to prevailโ. This came just hours after Ukraineโs new-ish military commander in chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, gave a mixed update from the 1,000km-long front line.
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Summarising the state of the battle via Telegram on Sunday, Syrskyi said โthe situation at the front has worsenedโ:
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Russian troops are pressing their current advantage and attacking across โthe entire front lineโย
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Thatโs forced Ukraine to withdraw from three villages west of Avdiivka, a key town Russian troops captured earlier this year at a staggering cost
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In the South, Russian forces have concentrated their attacks near the towns of Robotyne and Verbove, which Kyiv recaptured last year, and
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Ukrainian troops have managed to advance in the Kherson region, taking control of Nestryha island on the Dnipro River.
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Russia is also throwing everything at the town of Chasiv Yar, strategically located atop a hill 10km out of Bakhmut. Itโs a key defensive position for Ukraine, with visibility of the surrounding Donetsk. And Moscow has reportedly ordered Russian troops to capture it by May 9, Russiaโs WWII victory day. So far, the Russians there look to be taking heavy losses without gains.
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And thatโs a neat spot to sum up the overall vibe – Russia may take more villages at high cost in the weeks ahead, but itโs hard to see anything game-changing.
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So why is Russia still pushing now? With an eye to political timeframes in both Moscow (May 9) and Washington (November 5), itโs pressing its battlefield advantage while it can (ie, three-to-one in troops, and five-to-one in shells). And this is just as Ukraineโs mud season is drying up, allowing Russia to move heavy machinery as part of an expected offensive over the summer.
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But while Russia has advantages, itโs still also bumping up against its own limitations around logistics, training, and morale, curbing its ability to capitalise.
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And thatโs the context into which Ukraineโs long-promised military aid from allies is now starting to trickle.
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Whatโs Ukraine receiving? Following this monthโs historic vote in Congress, a $61B security assistance package is destined for Kyiv, including air defence, land mines, armoured vehicles, artillery and mortar rounds, spare parts, and long-range tactical ballistic missiles.
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Whenโs it arriving? Some of the kit was already pre-positioned nearby, but it still takes time to get it securely into the right hands, particularly given Russia has vowed to target storage depots. Other weapons systems are being contracted to US defence firms and will take months or longer to manufacture.
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And will any of this make a difference? Yes. But itโll take time and will evolve:
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In the immediate term, the assistance will help Ukraine fend off Russian missile and drone attacks on its cities, while holding the frontlines
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Thatโll create space for Ukraine to tackle deeper issues, including slow troop recruitment plus inadequate trenching and other frontline defences
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And that in turn will create space for Ukraine to develop a strategy beyond survival, with a view to seizing the initiative.
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And what does seizing the initiative look like? Itโll involve more strikes on Russian staging areas in Crimea. Itโll involve more hits on Russiaโs long-range strike capabilities. And itโll involve more strikes on Russiaโs broader war machine back home. Once Western-supplied F16s start to arrive around the end of this year, thatโll open up some further options, too.
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But this all takes time and comes without any guarantees.
INTRIGUEโS TAKE
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Col. Syrskyi mustโve felt a tad nervous hitting โsendโ on Sunday given his predecessor was effectively fired for labelling the conflict a stalemate last year. Still, that same predecessorโs punishment was to go to London as Ukraineโs ambassador, which is one of the better demotions youโll ever see.
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Against that backdrop, Syrskyi will have coordinated the wording of his update with his presidentโs office, and it shows: itโs urgent enough for allies to hurry things up, but not so urgent as to nourish alliesโ defeatist instincts.
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Now, as allied help arrives, it could shift the โwhatโ and โhowโ of the battlefield, But itโll also shift something already in Ukraineโs favour: the โwhyโ. While Russia has its own motivations, Ukraine is defending its homeland, with international backing.
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And as Ukraine continues to resist, itโll be for Russiaโs president to ponder what exactly heโs getting in return for 450,000 casualties and 7% of GDP.
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Also worth noting:
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Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law to boost troop numbers by lowering the conscription age from 27 to 25. Ukraineโs population is around 38 million, compared to 144 million in Russia.
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The UK announced another $637M in security assistance last week, its largest package to date. Australia announced another $100M in security assistance on Saturday.
A MESSAGE FROM LYKEION
Lykeion is an independent financial media outlet founded by a team of ex-portfolio managers and geopolitical analysts.
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Every week, Lykeion sends out investment-grade research and insightful commentary on macro-trends and thematic analysis that focuses on the intersection of financial markets and geopolitics.
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And, for a limited time only, they’re giving Intriguers 2 months free of Lykeion Plus: deep dive editorials, macro research, and thematic overviews, all at the intersection of financial markets and geopolitics.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREโฆ
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๐ฐ๐ทย South Korea: Emboldened by his recent win in parliamentary elections, South Koreaโs opposition leader is pressuring President Yoon Suk Yeol to accept a special investigation into allegations involving his wife. Yoonโs pro-US and Japan-friendly approach, not generally subject to parliamentary approval, will likely continue unchanged.
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๐ฉ๐ชย Germany: A criminal trial involving an alleged coup plot in Germany has kicked off in Stuttgart this week. Authorities arrested the alleged plotters – including former military officers, a judge-turned-populist lawmaker, and Prince Heinrich XIII of Reuss – back in 2022.
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๐ต๐ญย Philippines: Authorities across Southeast Asia have issued a series of health alerts over a record heat wave. Itโs led to school closures in the Philippines, a dengue spike in Indonesia, plus health warnings in Vietnam, Thailand and elsewhere. ย
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๐ช๐จย Ecuador: Ecuador is suing Mexico at the International Court of Justice, alleging its protection of a wanted former vice president of Ecuador was an unlawful interference in Ecuadorโs affairs. Mexico is already suing Ecuador, after the latter triggered outrage this month by raiding Mexicoโs embassy to arrest the same former vice president.
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๐น๐ทย Turkey: Outgoing Dutch leader Mark Rutte now reportedly has Turkeyโs backing for the role of NATOโs next secretary-general. NATO members Turkey and Hungary had earlier expressed reservations about Rutte, but the alliance is keen to have the nomination process wrapped before NATOโs 75th anniversary summit in Washington in July.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Hereโs what people around the world googled yesterdayย
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๐ฌ๐ง Folks in the UK googled โHumza Yousafโ after the Scottish First Minister officially announced his resignation.ย
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๐ง๐ท Brazilians searched for โโโEncceja 2024โ after the government opened registration for its National Youth and Adult Competency Certification Exam (equivalent to an alternative high school program).
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And ๐ป๐ณ Vietnamese football fans looked up โU23 Nhแบญt Bแบฃn ฤแบฅu vแปi U23 Iraqโ (U23 Japan vs U23 Iraq) after Japan beat Iran to advance to the Under23 Asian Cup finals against Uzbekistan.ย
TWEET/X OF THE DAY
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We all get hit with flight delays and cancellations, but not like this: Finlandโs flagship carrier Finnair has now halted flights to the Estonian city of Tartu due to โGPS interference in the areaโ. Various nations in the region are now accusing Russia of purposefully jamming GPS signals near its border.
DAILY POLL
Where do you see the Russo-Ukraine War one year from now? |
Yesterdayโs poll: What do you think is the biggest risk to the global economy today?
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๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉย ๐ War and the risk of war (37%)
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๐จ๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ธ High debt burdens (30%)
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๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โก US-China trade tensions (7%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ High interest rates (3%)
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๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ High inflation (7%)
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๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Inequality (11%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Other (write in!) (4%)
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Your two cents:
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๐ย G.P: โThe risk of war is a major factor contributing to the other issues. The resulting financial load is placing an economic burden on many countries.โ
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โ๏ธ B.D: โClimate Change.โ
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โก โSimple economic analysis. If the two largest economies don’t trade freely, costs go up for everyone.โ
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โ๏ธ M.A: โAt the end of the day income concentration and global inequality (both between states and individuals) causes far more damage around the world than any other economic policy.โ
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๐ธย M.D: โI think in general the risk of war is high, but I think that will come out of economic instability. Some political faction will use economic troubles as a cause for war.โ
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๐ A: โNo one can afford to take a long position, interest is too high.โ
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