The Israel-Iran War: 6 lessons so far

Things have only escalated since Friday’s war briefing, with…

• Israel hitting Tehran, Iran’s nuclear sites, a foreign ministry building, air bases, oil facilities, and a growing list of top regime figures in their cars and homes, while
• Iran‘s missiles have hit downtown Tel Aviv, the port of Haifa, a top science institute in Rehovot, the city of Rishon LeZion, and elsewhere.

So as these two old foes continue to trade blows and casualties, we’ve reflected on the six different lessons the world might now be learning:

• First, use your spooks

The ayatollah has spent decades dropping brash military diss tracks, only to get pantsed by Israel in a single night via simultaneous hits on air defences, decision-makers, logistical nodes, missile capabilities, and comms/energy networks. That’s the product of painstaking intelligence work to identify targets, track their locations, and pre-position arms to hit them, including from inside Iran. But…

• Second, spooks aren’t everything

If Israel was hoping to pre-emptively fry Iran’s counter-attack, that hasn’t exactly played out: while the initial Iranian response suggests the ayatollah was indeed stunned and now has fewer ballistic missiles (plus fewer generals to fire them), he’s still landing hits on Israel, indicating he probably had some tricks up his sleeve. Speaking of which…

• Third, shoot to win

The world has long assumed Iran’s nuclear crown jewels — deep under a mountain at Fordow — were beyond the reach of everyone other than America’s purpose-built bunker busters. That means Israel must either a) figure its own way to destroy that site, or b) convince the US to do it, otherwise c) Israel might’ve just legitimised and accelerated Iran’s progress instead (potentially days from delivering weapons-grade uranium).

• Fourth, bearhug vs cold shoulder

This time around, President Trump initially appears to have hoped that, by giving Bibi the cold shoulder, it might’ve pressured the Israeli leader to pull his head in and let Trump land the kind of nuclear deal he campaigned on. And that’s kinda the opposite of the ‘bearhug‘ strategy that Biden long employed, hoping that by holding Bibi close within ironclad US security guarantees, the White House could shape his decisions.

The result? Bibi instead now seems to have just taken matters into his own hands, but there are also reports he’s bowed to Trump’s pressure not to target the ayatollah specifically. It’s a little like Trump’s Ukraine moves: by stepping back, has he now actually unleashed Ukraine’s security services? Anyway, speaking of all that…

• Fifth, milk every crisis

Russia’s Putin has been on the front-foot, calling the US president over the weekend and offering himself as an Israel-Iran mediator. Why?

• a) It helps focus the world on the Israel-Iran war, not his own war on Ukraine
• b) It presents him to the White House as a peacemaker rather than a warmonger
• c) A truce might save Iran’s drones for his own attacks on Ukraine’s cities, and
• d) The longer this Israel-Iran war runs, the more the world might clock how ineffective Iran’s Russian-made air defences are against Israel’s US-made arms.

Oh, and speaking of that…

• Sixth… run, don’t walk

Rogue states everywhere will reflect on the fact that, after decades of Iran flirting with nukes as a source of leverage, that strategy might now lay in flames, while those that just rushed straight to nukes instead (like North Korea’s Kim family) hold on.

But it’s not just rogue states reaching this conclusion… there are now open debates across the West on whether US dependability is in doubt enough for allies to now pursue their own nuclear latency (having all the nuke ingredients ready) if not full nuclear weapons.

So maybe one of the many other lessons emerging here is that it’s ultimately active (if prudent) US engagement — not withdrawal — that keeps the US safe.

Intrigue’s Take

We’ve now got two rivals in open conflict, and it’s hard to see either backing down:

• Bibi senses a once-in-a-generation moment to seize Iran’s weakness, reshape a region in his own favour, and etch his name into Israel’s long history, whereas
• The ayatollah has now been humiliated in front of the world and his own people, and knows his time could be up whether via palace intrigue or an Israeli trigger.

Which takes us to another lesson our world has learned elsewhere: sometimes the only thing worse than a despot is the anarchy that fills his void. In Iran’s case, that might be:

• Securocrats seeking to protect their own power
• Proto-fascists seeking to protect their own theocracy
• Religious and ethnic minorities seeking to carve out their own space, and
• A large and exhausted urban class just wanting it all to end.