When rattled world leaders issue a desperate call to arms, who answers?
Well of course, that’d be Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop, Boeing, General Dynamics, AVIC, BAE, L3Harris, Norinco, Rheinmetall, and the China South Industries Group!
Thankfully, the number-crunchers at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) just dropped their latest arms industry report, so here are three stats to know:
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- $679B
That’s how much the world’s top 100 arms-makers earned in 2024, with ‘Murica alone accounting for ~half that revenue, and four of the world’s five biggest defense players — Lockheed alone earned a crisp $65B.
But the two of you who saw Black Widow (2021) will already know that big spends don’t necessarily guarantee good outcomes: Lockheed’s coveted F-35 now runs an average of 238 days late per aircraft, with a lifetime cost now at an extraordinary $2.1T.
Though delayed or not, the Saudi ruler’s latest DC pilgrimage was a reminder how much the F-35 is still the hottest (if not cheapest) defence system in town.
Okay, so if America’s pole position is unsurprising, here’s a stat that is surprising…
- 193%
These days we barely go a week without slipping Europe’s rearmament into conversation, but this 193% surge isn’t from giant Germany or even the bullish Baltics. Nope, that’s Prague’s Czechoslovak Group (CSG), enjoying a 193% revenue spike to $3.6B with more than half tied to helping Ukraine defend itself with ammo and equipment.
And that’s intriguing — local coalition talks persist, but the Czechs have likely now voted for Ukraine-sceptic billionaire populist Andrej Babiš to take the helm as PM! Still, many Czechs clearly back Ukraine’s self-defence — after all, their mostly ceremonial president is also the pro-NATO ex-general we famously likened to Tom Cruise playing ripped Santa.
And at the end of the day, it’s not like CSG is just donating the ammo — it’s all paid for by a coalition of mostly fellow NATO and EU members.
But while we’re talking surprises…
- -10%
China‘s eight top defence contractors just saw a 10% drop in revenues to $88B! Surely this means peacenik China is now beating its swords into ploughshares, no?
Well think of it like this: was Chris Pratt more formidable as chubby Andy Dwyer in Parks & Rec, or when he trimmed some lbs to become the shredded Star-Lord in Guardians?
To put it another way, President Xi’s corruption purge has now rippled out of the People’s Liberation Army, with arms contracts now getting hit. Headlines gawk at the missing generals (like Xi’s own vice-chair on the Central Military Commission), but Norinco’s chair (Liu Shiquan) getting implicated triggered a 31% revenue crash!
Ditto, Xi’s earlier troop and officer number cuts were really about tackling graft, inefficiency, and disloyalty to strengthen — not soften — his posture. His related new disciplinary rules will hit 1 January.
So maybe that’s where we wrap: numbers reveal a lot, but not always what we think?
Intrigue’s Take
Zoom out a little, and these stats reflect the world we grew up in: the longest-running major-power world peace in millennia, sustained (or imposed?) by US power.
And yet America keeps signalling those days might now be coming to an end: its recent elections suggest folks want to ease any US burden, and debt markets suggest they might have to: the US now spends more on net interest than it does on defence.
As for what might come after Pax Americana? Nobody really knows, but the above offers hints: Europe’s defence surge suggests it’ll shoulder more of the burden, though the Czech case also hints at how fragile that might be — just one populist away from the wall.
Ditto, China’s case captures the uncertainty of its own future role: immense scale and strength, but masking some unpredictable brittleness within.