The world digests Trump’s tariff reveal

In a packed Rose Garden, Donald Trump has unveiled his long-awaited reciprocal tariffs, which the 47th president is dubbing “kind reciprocal”, because they work out at roughly half what he says the world is charging the US.

Here’s a quick snapshot of the new tariffs, including:

• 🇲🇾 49% on Malaysia
• 🇻🇳 46% on Vietnam
• 🇨🇳 34% on China 
• 🇹🇼 32% on Taiwan
• 🇿🇦 30% on South Africa
• 🇮🇳 26% on India
• 🇰🇷 25% on South Korea (plus all foreign made cars)
• 🇯🇵 24% on Japan
• 🇪🇺 20% on the EU 
• 🇮🇱 17% on Israel, and
• 🌍 A 10% baseline on virtually everyone else.

That “virtually” is doing some heavy lifting, as a few names are missing from Trump’s list:

• Canada and Mexico sound surprised and relieved to have ducked this one, with US officials noting both are already covered under the USMCA trade arrangements, plus earlier Trump levies on steel, aluminium, energy, and cars.
• Russia, Belarus, North Korea and Cuba also dodged this list, purportedly because US sanctions mean there’s little trade to tariff. But the US did $3.5B with Russia last year, which is ~$3.5B more than others on the list like Jan Mayen (who’s not your mom’s golf partner but an uninhabited Norwegian island with fisheries). US officials say the 10% baseline still applies, even if you’re not cited.

One more phrase with incredible quads and glutes from heavy lifting? “What they’re charging us”. In many cases, Trump’s team seems to have based its figures on each country’s trade surplus with the US rather than any actual tariffs.

So all in all, while the world just got more details, that’s not necessarily translated into more certainty. Trump’s overall message now seems to be:

• Let’s negotiate on how to bring these new US tariffs back down, and
• Drop your tariffs and move production to the US if you want out.

Anyway, here are five different strategies capitals are now deploying in response:

1. Teaming up 🤝 

Interestingly, China’s state media has signalled the possibility of teaming up with ol’ foes (and US allies) Japan and Korea, and sure, their economy ministers just got together again.

But neither Tokyo nor Seoul are echoing this claim, and their trade ties (plus tariffs) with the US are distinct, so this might just be a state media exaggeration to rattle US alliances.

2. Appealing 🙏

There’s been a conga line of allied VIP visits from London, Canberra, Ankara and beyond, and that early sweet talking might’ve just worked: Australia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and others landed in that sweet sweet 10% baseline zone.

But while that’s half the pain now facing other allies like Japan and Korea, even if you accept 10% as reciprocal (most allies don’t), Trump’s not then halving that claimed rate like he did with (say) China, or seemingly omitting it like he did with Russia.

3. Swap hall passes👌

Meanwhile, fellow US ally Israel ditched its last tariffs on US goods just before Trump’s reveal, yet Israel still copped a 17% rate. It’s unclear if that’s because there wasn’t enough time to pop down to Kinko’s for new print-outs updating Israel’s rate to the baseline 10%, or if Trump still wants Israel to take further steps (like shifting production to the US).

4. Hit ‘em where it hurts💼

Meanwhile, the EU is still mulling a hit back against America’s lucrative but vulnerable tech giants, who get 59% of their revenue from abroad (double the S&P500 average).

Of course, EU pressure on US tech already has a long backstory: Ireland alone has reaped a cool $1.4B from fining the likes of Meta. And that dynamic is already intriguing in the way US tech tycoons have become so close to Trump 2.0, lobbying for a push-back.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

Trump’s backers say he’s ending a trade war, not starting one. That reflects the sense of frustration he tapped on the campaign trail, painting a picture of US consumers being treated like some kind of global cash cow.

And sure, the major ripple effect now sweeping out across the world will be a reminder that, even though more than half the world’s countries now list China as their top export destination, global growth still massively depends on US consumption. We’re already seeing governments (eg Thailand) commit to talks, and more will come.

But in pursuing one objective, Trump’s big tariff reveal now complicates others:

• Countering China realistically involves a hearts-minds-and-wallets push across wavering Indo-Pacific capitals. But some of Trump’s biggest tariffs have now hit those exact pivotal players like Vietnam, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Cambodia. China will seem a much more attractive partner today.
• Economic security has also involved nudging US corporations to diversify their supply chains away from China and into friendlier (and closer) jurisdictions. But firms that shifted to (say) Vietnam are now waking up to a new round of tariffs exceeding those being added to China. Trump’s team says Vietnam is helping China skirt US trade restrictions. And…
• Unleashing the US economy will get trickier — while precise price shifts will depend on currency, company, and consumer moves, these new tariffs could be among the biggest tax hikes in modern US history. That’ll funnel hundreds of billions into DC’s parched coffers, but also erode local purchasing power.

Anyway, while after-hours trading suggests we’ll now wake up to another big sell-off, Trump’s team argues initial market reactions don’t matter, and his treasury secretary is shrugging it all off: “that’s a Mag 7 problem, not a MAGA problem”.

Also worth noting:

• The Mag 7 stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla) have been down since January, and Trump’s 32% tariffs on Taiwan (which makes Mag 7 chips) look set to dampen those stocks further.
• Trump’s 46% tariffs on Vietnam have rattled Nike given its half a million employees and 130 factories there. Meanwhile, California’s winemakers might do well as tariffs price out their rivals from France and elsewhere.