Trump’s ambassadorial line-up

The world now greeting Trump 2.0 is much messier than the one awaiting him back in 2017: more distracted allies, more volatile foes, and more lacklustre Marvel sequels.

So let’s get you up to speed on what Trump’s initial ambassadorial picks might mean for the next four years:

1. 🇨🇳 China

Trump wants former senator for Georgia and CEO David Perdue in Beijing, a critical posting as US-China competition heats up. So what’s Perdue like on China? Well, he’s a mixed bag, which might be the point: his decades in business included stints in Hong Kong and Singapore helping US firms outsource to Asia. He also ran brands that sell into China. So he’s seen some of the upside from engagement with China.

But once he entered politics from 2014, Perdue styled himself as more of a hawk on China and even angered Beijing with a visit to Taiwan. And sure, he penned a warmer article back in 2019 citing “cooperation” with China as Washington’s core goal, but just weeks ago he penned a lengthy piece describing the Communist Party’s “new war” with the US.

So overall, Trump’s message with Perdue seems to be that, without softening some of his even hawkier picks like Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio, he still wants some kind of pragmatic dialogue with China. Whether Beijing sees things that way is another story.

2. 🌎 Latin America

With Rubio as his secretary of state and Trump’s former ambassador to Mexico (Landau) as his deputy, Foggy Bottom will now have Spanish speakers with real Latin America experience at the helm. And that’s won a few high-fives (including from Mexico’s President Sheinbaum) given the region’s long-running claims of US indifference. But not everyone will like what Trump’s renewed attention brings — Rubio, for example, is a fierce critic of the region’s autocrats, and Central America will feel the heat over migration.

As for Mexico? Trump has picked former Green Beret and CIA veteran Ron Johnson. He was ambassador to El Salvador under Trump 1.0, and became a staunch backer of its effective (if controversial) tough-on-crime approach — but the US has much more at stake with Mexico, which in turn seems relieved it’s Johnson and not the hawkish Kari Lake.

3. 🌍 Middle East

When it comes to the Middle East, Trump’s initial picks really confirm what we already knew: he’s avowedly pro-Israel, and that’s clear whether in his choice for ambassador to Israel (former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee), ambassador to the UN (New York congresswoman Elise Stefanik), or his envoy for the region (real estate mogul and long-time golfing buddy, Steven Witkoff).

The bigger question is around who he’ll send to represent him with other key US partners and allies in the region — like the Saudis, Jordanians, Emiratis, and Qataris — who’ve already flagged doubts around US commitment.

Judging by the looks of Witkoff’s recent travels (speaking at the Bitcoin Conference in Abu Dhabi and visiting Saudi Arabia), Trump might be dispatching his former golf partner to handle the Gulf. Meanwhile, the President-elect’s in-law Massad Boulos has reportedly travelled to Doha and met with the Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, according to Axios.

4. 🇪🇺 Europe

US presidents often save plum European postings for their donors and inner circle: many of these allied capitals are traditionally high-prestige and low-risk postings — an easy way to say thanks. But of course, Europe has changed — there’s a war on its doorstep, indecision in its response, and wariness towards what Trump 2.0 might bring.

Against that backdrop, Trump has announced investment banker Warren Stephens for London; his own daughter’s father-in-law (real estate mogul Charles Kushner) for Paris; and his son’s ex-fiancée and former Fox personality Kimberly Guilfoyle for Athens.

The Brits look content with Stephens, seen as a serious player and an upgrade on Trump’s last envoy (the billionaire co-owner of the New York Jets). But as for folks in Paris and Athens? Nnnnnnnnot so much. One senior Greek diplomat told us the decision to nominate Guilfoyle as ambassador suggested Greece and its neighbours won’t be a Trump priority; the diplomat assessed it could also be because Trump wants only a light touch there given his family’s business ventures in nearby Albania and Serbia. As for Paris, it’s Kushner’s colourful criminal convictions that’ve raised most eyebrows.

But in all three cases, locals are also noting that having an ambassador from Trump’s inner circle is an opportunity for more access and influence over his decisions.

Anyway, there’s a quick snapshot for you. We’ll keep you posted on who else Trump sends to key allies, partners, and foes.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

Leaving aside the above personalities for a moment, there’s a long-running political vs career appointees debate that basically boils down to presidents either wanting:

• a) political appointees who’ll focus on carrying out their electoral mandate, or
• b) career appointees who’ll bring relevant expertise and sharp advice.

Some have summarised that debate as essentially one of control vs competence. Good diplomats however — whether career or political — should really be able to tick both boxes. It really comes down to the individual, though yes, too many political parachutes can get demoralising for career diplomats over time.

But there’s a broader issue at play, too: leaders will appoint more political ambassadors as they lose faith in their foreign services, whether for reasons of control, competence, or both. And that’s something we’re detecting across several capitals, not just DC.

Anyway, let’s end on a positive note, shall we? There’s one thing foreign capitals hate worse than getting sent an unorthodox US political appointee: getting sent nobody at all. And yet, it’s become increasingly common thanks to political gridlock in the US confirmation process, often ceding local influence to rivals like Russia and China as a result. So maybe, just maybe, with Senate margins not so tight under Trump 2.0, the US might not leave so many ambassadorial positions vacant.

Also worth noting:

• The Foreign Service Act of 1980 requires that a) most ambassadors should be career diplomats; b) political appointments should be a rarity; and c) all appointees should be fully qualified. 25-35% of modern US ambassadors have been political appointees. Trump hit a new record of 45% during his first term.
• Trump has also just announced his former ambassador to Berlin (Ric Grennell) as a new envoy for “special missions“, including Venezuela and North Korea.