Ukraine’s fighting a war on two fronts

We’ve kept you in the loop as Ukraine still barely holds on to key towns like Pokrovsk, despite Putin burning staggering numbers of casualties there.

But Ukraine’s Zelensky is also grappling with two threats a little closer to home.

One is the White House’s periodic flirting with the idea of imposing a direct Kremlin deal on Ukraine, with word the latest secret ‘28-point plan’ is again a Putin fever-dream:

• Ukraine would cede even more land, halve its own forces, abandon long-range missiles, lose US support, and ditch its basic right to seek help (eg NATO) while…
• Putin would pinky promise not to attack again (and get sanctions relief for his troubles).

This reported deal (again) just calls for Ukraine’s capitulation, even as Trump now a) bleeds out Putin’s economy via new sanctions, b) lifts restrictions on Ukraine’s long-range hits, and c) bolsters Ukraine’s air defences with Patriot upgrades.

And all that, while Finland’s Alexander Stubb sums up Putin’s own strategic cul-de-sac like this: “In WWII, Stalin was in Berlin in four years. We’re almost four years into the war and Russia is nowhere near Kyiv and they’re not going to get there.”

So what’s going on? Trump’s envoy (Witkoff) accidentally just tweeted a DM seemingly confirming he’s hatching this latest deal with the head of Putin’s beleaguered wealth fund, so there’s a chance it’s a) just a Witkoff brain-snap, b) just a high-ball to make Ukraine more flexible, or c) a fait accompli Trump will impose on Zelensky — outlets are reporting every possibility as fact. We’ll see.

Then second, Zelensky is facing a serious corruption scandal back home: Ukraine’s corruption watchdog charged eight suspects earlier this month over a mass scheme involving Energoatom (Ukraine’s state-owned nuclear power operator).

The suspects include some big names, like…

• The co-owner of Zelensky’s (former) screen production company
• Zelensky’s ally and former deputy PM, and
• Both his justice and energy ministers (resigned, though not formally charged). 

But the biggest scalp might be a mysterious ‘Ali Baba’ — that’s the code-name used in some of the above wiretaps for someone else involved in or at least aware of the scheme: and rumour is it could be Zelensky’s own powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak (he denies it).

So this is all a yuuuuuuge deal for several reasons:

1. Energoatom is one of Ukraine’s most critical wartime institutions
2. It was allegedly getting milked by some of Ukraine’s most powerful people
3. They allegedly skimmed not just pennies, but $100M in contract kick-backs
4. Zelensky had just tried to weaken Ukraine’s watchdog until protests erupted
5. This scandal hits Ukrainian morale right when it’s needed most
6. It’ll complicate Ukraine’s ongoing EU accession talks
7. It’s a gift for Putin’s propaganda that Ukraine just isn’t worth helping, and
8. It’ll embolden Ukraine doubters across the West, just as capitals plan their support ahead of Ukraine’s impending winter.

So it’s any wonder Zelensky has pulled an Obama and aged decades the last few years.

But for now, just keep an eye on whether he fires his chief of staff (Yermak), a key signal of how serious Zelensky really is about cleaning up Ukraine’s act while it fights for its survival.

Intrigue’s Take

To be clear, the fact Ukraine’s investigators — and its raucous free press — are absolutely going to town on elites is itself evidence of a living, breathing (if coughing) democracy worth defending. One need only glance over the border to recall the alternative.

Can anyone send us the link to Russia’s credible investigation after the Panama Papers exposed Putin’s billions? Or how his best friend (Roldugin) earned billions playing a cello? (dude must be awesome) Or why the guy who made a two-hour documentary on Putin’s $1.4 billion Black Sea mega-palace ended up dead in a Putin prison?

The absence of scandal in an autocracy is often just a symptom of its silent, dehumanising condition. And inversely (if uncomfortably), the presence of scandal in a democracy often just reflects the messy but sacred human agency underneath. And that’s worth fighting for, everywhere, every time.