Who’s blowing up the oil tankers?

While the world focuses on nukes and big beautiful bills and Diddy, another story has been simmering quietly in the background: by our count, there’ve now been at least five intriguing ship explosions this year, with the latest being the Greek-owned Vilamoura off the coast of Libya last week — its engine room got flooded, but there were no injuries.

For one ship to spontaneously blow up might be misfortune. Two? Carelessness. But five?! Oscar Wilde didn’t even leave us with a word for that, so allow us to tap in with ‘fishy’.

Particularly when you realise they all had indications someone might’ve used limpet mines — that’s the one you quietly attach to a ship, then escape into the sunset with your paramour on an all-mahogany Riva boat while a rousing strings score swells.

And while this stuff isn’t knocking the big stories off the frontpages, we can tell you shipping executives are absolutely popping. So what are the theories here?

1. Ukraine?

All five vessels had recently docked in Russian ports, prompting the inevitable theory that maybe Ukraine’s security services are now targeting Russia’s shadow fleet — the opaque network of vessels with obscure ownership helping Putin export his sanctioned oil.

Ukrainian intelligence hasn’t claimed responsibility, but it has a mixed record of doing so, and it did label the Vilamoura part of Russia’s stealthy shipping network just last week.

It also just makes sense: Putin finances his invasion via oil sales, and years of Western sanctions aren’t yet having the full bite. But when Ukraine started slapping its own sanctions (ie, slamming dozens of Putin’s terminals with drones) there were rumours the US asked Kyiv to cool it given the market mayhem and parallel peace talks.

So maybe the Ukrainians are now hitting Putin’s ships instead, sending a message to every shadowy owner: sure, you might score some easy cash, or you might lose it all. 

That’d be on brand for President Zelensky, who’s not afraid to hit back abroad, whether:

• The assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov in Moscow, or
• Ukraine’s alleged role in destroying Nordstream 2, or even…
• Sending Ukrainian special forces against Russian mercenaries in Africa. 

The common thread is imposing costs on Putin for his invasion of Ukraine. 

But not everyone’s convinced: 

• At least three of the ships were carrying Kazakh (not Russian) oil when hit, and
• The explosions have hit in different ways and at different moments (port vs sea).

And another thing — where’d this all happen? The five ships include…

• Seacharm (Jan 15) – Hit off the coast of Turkey
• Koala (Feb 9) – While docked at Russia’s Ust-Luga port
• Seajewel (Feb 15) – Struck near Italy, not too far from Libya
• Grace Ferrum (Feb) – Damaged off Libya
• Vilamoura (June 27) – Flooded near Libya after an engine room blast

So another possible common ingredient is…

2. Libya?

Four of the five ships had stopped in Libyan ports, and all had a habit of anchoring near Malta — both destinations are known hotspots for shadowy shipping activity.

But while there are all kinds of players exploiting Libya’s power vacuum right now (including Libya’s own factions) — and sure, the waters off Malta are open to intrigue — this possible geographic link might reveal less about whodunnit, and more about how: ie, perhaps via operatives working out of Malta or Libya. So then… whodunnit?

3. Someone else?

We’re wandering way off into speculation territory here, but are there others who might have the will and the way to disrupt global oil markets? Take your pick!

Iran, for example, has a history of similar maritime sabotage — there’s widespread suspicion it was behind limpet mine attacks near Hormuz back in 2019, for example. 

Why would it do that? Perhaps to disrupt global oil flows and thereby pressure President Trump to re-engage and unshackle Iran’s oil reserves. Though it’s unclear why Iran would hit ships connected to a backer like Russia, unless the idea is to maximise deniability, and/or to disrupt Kazakh oil as a rival to Iranian wells? But again, this is pure speculation. 

Ditto, we could get creative and speculate why any number of other players could theoretically benefit here. But we just don’t know. And that’s maybe even more unsettling.

Intrigue’s Take

Ol’ Vova must’ve thought he was pretty clever spinning up a fleet of leaky shadow vessels to keep his oil business afloat. But it turns out anyone can play in the shadows, and our best guess is we’re seeing Ukraine’s security services now making that clear. Why?

The motives align, but also the use of low-yield limpets suggests the perpetrators wanted to avoid the kind of global backlash that’d erupt if there were major spills or deaths. 

As for the Kazakh oil factor? Maybe the intelligence was wrong. Or maybe, given the Kazakhs share oil export infrastructure with Russia, or the reports of illegal ship-to-ship transfers near Novorossiysk, perhaps Ukraine’s intel knows something we don’t.

Another thing? It’s a reminder that, while Libya’s ongoing anarchy might not impact us directly, it still all wedges open space via which others might indeed hurt us. That’s why pulling up the drawbridge, while always seductive, is rarely effective.

So again, we just don’t know. Welcome to our new multipolar world, Intriguer.