Another coup in Thailand?

You’re chatting away on the phone after a crappy few weeks at work: yep, Jenny from accounts is at it again, and don’t even get us started on Barry from marketing.

So you vent, throw a little shade, maybe sprinkle in some spice — it’s a private call. You do you, right? Wrong. 

Thailand’s prime minister tried that last month, and she’s now effectively out of a job because someone recorded then leaked her call, triggering a political soap opera with more twists and turns than the Ha Giang Loop.

But Thai politics not your thing? We’ve gone ahead and adapted this to screen for you, borrowing (and mildly bastardising?) Hollywood’s classic script structure for extra pizzazz:

• Ordinary world

Sure, Thailand and Cambodia have had their differences over the years, but these two neighbours were mostly pretty tight. Cambodia’s Hun Sen once described his Thai counterpart (Shinawatra senior) as his “godbrother” — they even did golf together!

• Inciting incident

But then in May of this year, something went horribly wrong: the details remain unclear, but basically Thai and Cambodian troops crossed paths in a disputed, un-demarcated border area — shots were fired, and one Cambodian soldier ended up dead.

• Refusal of the call

There were initial glimmers of hope that maybe diplomacy would help de-escalate this thing: the new leaders (children of the godbrothers above) were in contact within hours, and further talks among generals got everyone retreating back to last year’s positions.

But something wasn’t quite right… While saying all the right things about diplomacy, these two (dare we say it… yes, we’re gonna say it) nepo-babies also quietly deployed additional troops and heavy weapons. And then the diplomacy wheels started to wobble:

• Cambodia wanted the International Court of Justice to help draw the border, but
• Thailand just wanted to figure it out between the two of them (Thailand is the bigger player, while the ICJ has previously ruled in Cambodia’s favour), until…

• Act 1 turning point

The young Thai PM (Paetongtarn Shinawatra) tried to bypass her Cambodian counterpart, instead calling the guy’s dad and Cambodia’s ✌️former✌️ leader, Hun Sen.

But you know what? Hun Sen was recording the call! All 17 minutes of it. And he shared a copy not just with his now ✌️in-charge✌️ son but at least 80 other top Cambodian generals and officials, one of whom (if not Hun Sen himself) then leaked it.

• Tests, allies, and enemies

Turns out this was a massive deal because, in amongst milking her family ties to stop this thing ending up at the ICJ, the young Thai PM used the call with Hun Sen to dunk on her own general, referring to him as “an opponent”, saying he handled the whole border thing poorly, and suggesting he “just wanted to look cool”.

And that is an extremely spicy thing to do in Thailand, where the military-monarchy establishment is a sensitive issue and still effectively controls most key institutions. Her own dad and aunt both learned this the hard way by getting ousted in military coups!

• Point of no return

Of course, Cambodia’s Hun Sen knew all this. And that’s why he (or someone in his circle) leaked the call, torching decades of cross-border family ties to presumably trigger the young Shinawatra’s ouster and clear the way for a favourable ICJ ruling.

And lest there be any doubt, Hun Sen spelled it out on Facebook (he’s 72): “In my opinion, Thailand will have a new prime minister in the next three months, and I know in advance who will be the prime minister, but I won’t say it, leaving it to the imagination“.

• Final push

Thailand’s PM tried to play it all off as mere negotiation tactics (and Hun Sen’s predictions as just trolling), but the damage was done. One of the many parties holding her coalition together withdrew, and protestors started calling for her resignation.

• Climax

Then on Monday, Thailand’s constitutional court — which, let’s be honest, answers to the military-monarchy honchos — suspended the PM from her duties pending an ethics investigation. That’s the same court that used the same ethics tool to remove her predecessor less than a year ago, and it’ll now inevitably be her own fate, too.

• Cliffhanger, shamelessly hinting at a sequel

But here’s the thing: Thailand has had 22 coup attempts — 13 successful — since the constitutional monarchy got started in 1932 (itself thanks to… 🥁 a coup).

And in a nod to Hollywood’s sequel-obsessed lack of originality, Thailand’s coups are now just re-hashing the same script: the coups that yoinked Paetongtarn’s dad (2006) and aunt (2014) also started with border clashes, followed by accusations they were going soft on national security, then a bit of whipping up of nationalism and unrest until — yoink. 

But even if the coming sequel doesn’t involve a coup, we’re still left with: 

• Tensions between two neighbours in an already volatile ‘hood (hi Myanmar)
• Instability in Thailand, in turn hitting its economy (shares are down 20%) 
• Trade disruption not only to their $5B cross-border ties, but broader regional supply chains across auto, garments, and electronics, and  
• Border closures hitting the million-odd Cambodian migrant workers in Thailand.

So don’t let anyone yawn in your face about this latest Thai political intrigue. Just add that touch of Hollywood pizzazz.

Intrigue’s Take

So what can we learn from all this?

• First, never assume a sensitive conversation is just between you and them. Never. If the other side isn’t quietly taking notes, they’re not doing their job.
• Second, don’t assume your personal connection can solve something alone. To the contrary, it can become a liability if the other side wants (and you’re careless).
• Third, nationalism is a powerful yet unpredictable creature. Those unresolved grievances you thought were kinda fading into history? Well now there are keyboard warriors whipping up outrage over who invented Khon dance.
• And fourth, there’s always leverage available. Whether it’s Thailand’s 186 state-owned gas stations in Cambodia, or the threat of an ICJ case, or the vast number of Cambodians relying on the Thai labour market. There’s no single upper hand.

Anyway, stay tuned for the sequel [in deep voice] “this summerrrrrrrrrrrr…”