🌍 Will Trump’s Gaza plan work?
Plus: Get a PhD with this one cool trick
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Today’s briefing: |
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Good morning Intriguer. I once had to deliver a suitcase of secret stuff to a notorious ambassador passing through town. So I took a breath, phoned her up, and politely explained I was ready to do the delivery if she could kindly let me know where.
And that, dear Intriguer, is when things went off the rails.
The ambassador was waiting at a café located on a particular city block. But when I explained that this block had like 20 cafes so I might need a bit more information, the irate ambassador refused to check the map or ask a waiter for the spot’s name.
So I couldn’t help myself, and suggested instead maybe I could just walk down the street and the ambassador could just call out when she saw me. But the ambassador protested that she didn’t know what I looked like, and the streets were packed with office workers!
Dear Intriguer, I can’t type here the words this ambassador then yelled down that phone when I suggested maybe she should just “look out for the dude in a suit”. But I’ll be darned if, 90 seconds after hanging up on me, she didn’t sheepishly text me the name of that café.
Anyway, did President Trump just deliver Middle East peace? Let’s find out.
P.S. — For any current/former US diplomats out there, what question tripped you up on the FSOT? Hit reply — we’re compiling tips for brave souls taking the October exam!
Number of the day
45%
That’s how much the price of gold has risen so far this year, crossing yet another new record of $3,800 per ounce in the last day. More commodities news below.
The half deal
Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu just wrapped his fourth trip to Washington since President Trump returned to the White House, a frequency no other foreign leader has matched.
But was this time any different? Well, yes and no.
On the ‘yes’ front, of course, there’s the fact Trump just rolled out a 20-point Gaza peace plan standing side-by-side with Bibi. The plan basically involves…
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An immediate ceasefire once Hamas agrees
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Hamas to return all hostages (dead and alive) within 72 hours
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Israel to release 250 Palestinians on life sentences, and ~1,700 more detainees
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Israel to gradually withdraw from Gaza, handing over to…
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A new International Stabilization Force (ISF) with Arab and other partners, plus
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A technocratic Palestinian committee that’ll initially run Gaza, while…
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An economic development plan guides the reconstruction phase, until…
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The Palestinian Authority has reformed enough to take over in Gaza, while
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Full aid deliveries resume (with no Israeli or Hamas involvement), and
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Hamas is excluded, with amnesty for any members who disarm or depart.
The plan also stipulates that a) nobody gets forced to leave Gaza, b) Israel won’t occupy the strip (though keeps its security buffers), and c) there’ll be a new interfaith dialogue.
Plus it all plays out under a Board of Peace chaired by Trump himself, with other names also in the mix (like Tony Blair, who led the UK into the 2003 US invasion of Iraq).
So okay… we said ‘yes and no’ when pondering whether Bibi’s fourth DC visit was any different. With the ‘yes’ bit now out of the way, what about the ‘no’?
Well… we’ve arguably been here before in a few different ways.
First, this deal has some similarities to the one President Biden put to Bibi last June (though Trump’s timeline is tighter, his Hamas exclusion is clearer, and his international oversight emphasis is heavier, for example).
Second, neither Israel nor Hamas ever really accepted Biden’s deal (Hamas wanted changes, and Bibi wanted to defeat Hamas first). This time? Sure, Bibi is onboard — but the more hardline members of his shaky coalition have criticised the deal. As for Hamas? There’s a strong chance it’ll again insert enough caveats for any ‘yes’ to effectively mean ‘no’. And yet, interestingly…
Third, Trump’s plan says even if Hamas delays or demurs, the plan is happening anyway (including the aid), though just in zones outside Hamas control. And that seems an attempt to sidestep then squeeze Hamas, especially if locals end up leaving the remaining pockets of Hamas rule (still at war with Israel), and heading over to whatever new international/technocratic administration takes shape elsewhere in Gaza.
So… will it work?
Sometimes you need big curveballs to shake a stubborn status quo, but given the misery of the last few years, it’s hard to be optimistic — even for stubborn optimists like us.
Intrigue’s Take
Maybe this plan gets Trump his Nobel Prize. Or maybe it adds him to history’s long list of Middle East peace plans that’ve all promised a breakthrough, only to stumble over the same entrenched distrust (whether via more settlements, terrorist attacks, or beyond).
Sure, there are reasons for hope: might the presence of Arab-led peacekeepers be enough to slow the cycle of violence? And might a reformed Palestinian Authority be able to thread that elusive needle of both international and domestic legitimacy?
But there are also real reasons for caution: while the Palestinian Authority has now welcomed the plan, Palestinians themselves don’t seem to have had a role in developing it. And details remain unclear, like who’ll actually contribute to this new international force.
So it’s a big gamble, but it’s hard to see any better deal emerging right now, either.
Sound even smarter:
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The foreign ministers of Qatar, Jordan, the UAE, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have all jointly welcomed Trump’s deal. Other early backers include India, France, Italy, Germany, Australia, the UK, and more.
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Trump also mentioned that several European leaders (like France’s Macron) played a role in developing this plan.
Meanwhile, elsewhere…
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🇺🇸 UNITED STATES – Shutdown looms. Comment: Global shares are mostly down right now, as investors brace for the worst. |
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🇮🇷 IRAN – Snapped back. |
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🇨🇳 CHINA – More chips! Comment: Nvidia is still at least a couple of (big) generations ahead, but if Huawei manages to massively ramp up production like this, it suggests it might’ve at least figured out ways to ease some of its production bottlenecks. |
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🇪🇸 SPAIN – Let me upgrade ya’. Comment: With debt still a wildcard elsewhere, Spain is now among the world’s few major economies to score any rating upgrade this year (along with Italy, Nigeria, Kenya and Pakistan). But Spain really stands out for its trifecta (Moody’s, Fitch, S&P). |
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🇳🇬 NIGERIA – Oil strike. Comment: Dangote only just opened this infrastructure a few months ago, hailing the $20B project as liberating Nigeria from its reliance on foreign refiners. With unions now tapping his brakes, it’s a reminder that infrastructure is still just one piece of the puzzle. |
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🇲🇾 MALAYSIA – Football woes. Comment: Outlets in Vietnam are celebrating the fact this means their team’s Asian Cup qualifier loss to Malaysia now gets reversed. We explored the geopolitics of citizenship here. |
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🇧🇴 BOLIVIA – Plot twist. Comment: The amount of cash on offer, the state of Bolivia’s institutions, and continued economic malaise make these arrests semi-common — two other former Bolivian counternarcotic bosses are already doing time or facing charges in the US. |
Extra Intrigue
Intrigue’s commodities corner:
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Oil: Prices have dropped ahead of another expected OPEC+ output increase this Sunday.
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Rare earths: Pakistan’s Shehbaz Sharif has pulled the classic ‘show and tell’ with President Trump, bringing rare earth samples to his White House meeting.
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Copper: Bank of America sees copper prices surging from $10,600 this week to $11,300+ per tonne in 2026, due to supply disruptions and steady demand.
Degree of the day
Credits: @ aletihaden via Instagram
Usually a PhD involves years of gruelling research while living off ramen and just generally teetering around the poverty line. But the United Arab Emirates has now revealed how you too can get a doctorate with this one handy step, no college degree required! How?
Just build a leading AI company. You see, the UAE’s Mohamed Bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence just awarded OpenAI CEO Sam Altman an honorary doctorate.
But how is Altman’s LinkedIn update relevant to your favourite geopolitics outlet, you ask? The UAE has made no secret of its AI hub ambitions to diversify away from oil, partnering with OpenAI earlier this year to build the world’s largest non-US AI infrastructure hub.
So sprinkling in the occasional gesture, like an honorary degree from the world’s first graduate university focused on AI? It’s a free way to help butter up the key players.
Today’s poll
Which do you think is likely to emerge first? |
Yesterday’s poll: What's the best way to respond to persistent drone incursions?
🚫 Ban all drones (5%)
🚀 Shoot 'em down (54%)
🛡️ Expand no-fly zones (20%)
🎯 Retaliate against the sender (18%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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🚀 E.K.H: “The problem is that drones are way smaller and cheaper than what we currently use to shoot them down.”
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🛡️ G.S: “If they are civilian drones, restrictions such as those just implemented by the Danes should suffice. ‘Shoot them down’ is dangerous for collateral damage and reeks of government overreach.”
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✍️ T.R: “Use technology to create cyberwalls to jam UAV frequencies.”