Are the US and Venezuela going to war?

Hot take, but many in DC believe the US and Venezuela are headed to war. Why? Well….

On the US side, the National Security Council met on Venezuela yesterday (Monday), just after Trump a) reportedly delivered a Friday ultimatum for Venezuela’s Maduro to leave or be forced out, then b) moved (via tweet) to close Venezuelan airspace.

On the Venezuelan side, Maduro has now rejected both a) what he sees as imperialist yankee threats, and b) Trump’s Friday ultimatum, and is now pleading with the OPEC oil cartel for help, arguing the US just wants Venezuela’s oil reserves (the world’s largest).

And how’s the rest of the world responding? Major airlines have now duly hit pause, leaving us wondering if Miami-based Venezuelan mega-band Los Amigos Invisibles will proceed with its big home-coming tour due to kick off in Caracas on Friday. The only carriers still braving the skies are from nearby Colombia, Panama, and Bolivia.

As for the region’s presidential palaces?

1. Lima and Santiago 

Both Peru and Chile are nervous — under Maduro, Venezuela’s complete collapse (which predates US sanctions by years btw) has sent eight million folks fleeing across — and destabilizing — the region. Fed-up Chileans now look set to elect a hardline new president in response, with undocumented Venezuelans already fleeing north to Peru.

And that’s prompted Peru — stuck in a rolling political crisis since ~2016-17 — to now deploy extra troops to the border under a state of emergency.

Now throw in the possibility of conflict? Both are bracing for even more new arrivals.

2. Havana 

Take a spin through Cuban state media, and you’ll see the hottest trending piece announces that “the next direct flight from Russia to Venezuela is still scheduled.” They’re highlighting defiance of US diktats. Why?

Beyond their own ideological alignment with Maduro, there’s probably a fear that if Venezuela’s Maduro loses his grip on power, Cuba’s own Castro legacy might be next. 

3. Bogota

Colombia’s Gustavo Petro is walking his own tightrope: amid miserable polling numbers, he’s doubling down on his Trump criticism (whether oil or boat-strikes), while calling on everyone to just let the Venezuelans figure it out themselves — he’s even offered Cartagena as a venue for opposition-Maduro talks.

Then at the other end of the spectrum there’s…

4. Buenos Aires

Argentina’s firebrand leader Javier Milei has always been a fervent Maduro critic — he’s backed up the rhetoric by helping shelter opposition members in his Caracas embassy, and on Monday calling for the International Criminal Court to arrest Maduro for crimes against humanity — the ICC has been in investigation mode there since 2018.

And as for South America’s biggest player…?

5. Brasília

Brazil’s President Lula made headlines in 2023 when he not only met Venezuela’s Maduro, but seemingly downplayed the dictator’s human rights abuses — he’s also criticised what he sees as US imperialism, in line with Brazil’s non-interventionist tradition.

But with US-Brazil ties wobbling, Lula has now focused more on mediation efforts, while also helping steward Argentina’s embassy in Caracas lately.

Oh, and Mexico? It’s the other key player here, with enough regional influence to back or discredit whatever comes next — it’s long felt the brunt of Venezuela’s collapse, though any hint of support for a US intervention will trigger political blowback at home.

Intrigue’s Take

There was recently a cheeky meme showing a text exchange between Maduro and Putin, with the Venezuelan strongman flagging that he could really use a lil’ help right now, and the Russian despot responding “oooh sounds tough bro, hope you find someone!”

It hints at the line China and Russia are now walking with their support for Maduro: just enough to sap US bandwidth away from other priorities like Taiwan or Ukraine, but not enough to actually get pulled into the quagmire themselves.

Meanwhile, it’s interesting to see regional players urge the Venezuelans to figure this out themselves: it sounds magnanimous and can even be wise in many contexts, though it’s hard to find many dictators in the region who’ve voluntarily left power through domestic dialogue alone while still controlling both the military and treasury. In fact, some of those now most forcefully opposing US intervention — whether Cuba’s Castro heirs or Nicaragua’s Sandinistas — themselves famously seized power with foreign backing.

Anyway, Trump might’ve now painted himself into a corner:

• leave Maduro in power and watch his apotheosis into a hero who defied the US, just as the US seeks to reassert its dominance via a modern ‘Donroe’ Doctrine, or
• pull the trigger and risk US casualties plus local civilian deaths, while rivals like China and Russia continue to cast you as the most volatile source of instability.

Trump’s best-case scenario might be to keep ratcheting up the pressure until Maduro finally takes an offramp into exile. His second-best scenario might be to keep ratcheting up the pressure until one of Maduro’s own officers pulls a Rodriguez (the Paraguayan general who restored democracy).

Or he might hope a surgical US operation could oust Maduro quickly, though even Bush Sr’s rapid ousting of Panama’s Noriega still left 23 US troops dead before getting a relatively benign place in history as one of the rare interventions that ushered in a stable democracy.

And that’s before we add the fact that most Americans say they’re against an intervention.

Sound even smarter:

• Meanwhile, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has confirmed he authorised the controversial ‘double-tap’ strike on a suspected drug boat on 2 September, though denies giving the alleged verbal “kill everybody” order. US lawmakers are now investigating the strike amid claims it constitutes murder or a war crime.