Davos Dispatch: Day 3

Here’s a quick Davos recap from our third day on the ground:

• What’s a forum without chaos? President Trump’s delay due to an Air Force One electrical fault threw the entire day’s scheduling off, though we at least got good memes about Trump sending Marco ‘many hats’ Rubio to fix the jet. And US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick’s pro-coal speech scored the bifecta of an Al Gore heckle and a Christine Lagarde walk-out.

• A handful of anti-regime Iranian protesters also made an appearance along the promenade, rocking pre-revolutionary flags and images of the Shah’s exiled, US-based son Reza Pahlavi. They told Intrigue they were hoping to attract Donald Trump’s attention to their cause (rumours continue to swirl of possible US hits).

• Anyway, as for the day’s main event… President Trump’s 70-min speech

  • In what might be the first Trump remarks to have any calming effect in Europe for a while, the US president called for immediate talks on Greenland but finally ruled out using force to seize the Danish territory.

  • Trump later flagged he’s “formed the framework of a future deal” on Greenland with NATO chief Mark ‘the Trump whisperer’ Rutte, then made TACO-traders rich by dropping his latest tariff threats. No further deal details (beyond rumours the US gets sovereignty over its bases only), though it’s unclear what authority Rutte even has to discuss Danish turf.

• We also spotted former British PM Tony Blair striding briskly around town, where he’s presumably attending today’s unveiling of Trump’s Board of Peace (though rumours continue to swirl around his exact role). Meanwhile the UK has signalled it won't be signing onto Trump's Board just yet, citing Putin’s presence.

• Our line of the day goes to a European CEO at a panel discussing Europe’s re-industrialisation, observing the bloc has to “move from morality to materiality”.

• Ukraine’s Zelensky initially had to cancel given Putin’s continued attacks on Ukrainian cities, plunging entire civilian populations into freezing darkness. But Zelensky himself just landed in Davos, reportedly to meet Trump. And perhaps to end on a light note, a shout-out to fellow Intriguer and Swiss-based trade guru Dmitry Grozoubinski, who (given the role of Putin et al) quipped that maybe the first Board of Peace meeting should be held at The Hague.

How to build a nation

Headlines have gravitated towards the Arctic and Davos this week, but a couple of world leaders ended up skipping out on the World Economic Forum, including Syria’s al-Sharaa.

Sharaa’s excuse? Oh, just ISIS jailbreaks, domestic infighting, and a shaky ceasefire. So let’s dive in?

Since the jihadist-turned-statesman toppled Syrian dictator Assad in December 2024, al-Sharaa has struggled to unify Syria’s minority factions and consolidate power.

The biggest question was around the US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), controlling a third of Syria since emerging in 2015 to fight ISIS. The SDF was wary of Kurds getting screwed (again), this time under Sharaa’s Islamist-led administration.

But their uneasy status quo just collapsed. There’s debate over who fired the first shot (it might’ve been an SDF drone), but fighting broke out in Syria’s second-largest city of Aleppo earlier this month, with government forces seizing two SDF strongholds before expanding rapidly eastward across broader SDF turf until Sunday’s ceasefire.

Critically, as SDF lines collapsed, there was a jailbreak at one of the SDF-run prisons holding ISIS members, with at least 120 escaping (Damascus claims it’s re-arrested 81).

Technically that four-day ceasefire is now expiring, but the two sides seem to have agreed a 14-point peace plan for what’s next, including the SDF…

• a) surrendering most of its governing authorities to Damascus

• b) integrating into the Syrian military, but also

• c) leaving local security forces to secure Kurdish-majority areas in the north-east.

Yet two big underlying tensions persist.

First, resources. The Kurdish northeast holds most of Syria's oil and gas, which al-Sharaa needs for reconstruction elsewhere, plus his administration’s own broader legitimacy.

Second, visions. While the al-Sharaa administration wants to centralise state control, the SDF’s Kurds want more cultural recognition and political autonomy. Al-Sharaa threw an olive branch in the form of a decree recognising Kurdish language and citizenship (of Syria), but Turkey made similar promises in the early 2010s before another crackdown.

So for the SDF, this ceasefire looks much more like a capitulation.

And where is the US in all of this?

The SDF’s American backers have endorsed the capitulationceasefire, and the US envoy (Barrack) says any rationale for the US-SDF partnership has now "largely expired" anyway. The SDF also argued it needed help holding all those ISIS prisoners, but the Pentagon just yoinked that too, transferring 7,000 ISIS detainees to Iraqi-controlled facilities.

So while US officials are backing this outcome as a win for a "unified Syria", this outcome also conveniently helps with Trump’s plan to finally get US troops out of Syria.

The other winner is of course Turkey’s Erdogan, who has long called for the SDF (along Turkey’s border) to disarm and disband. So for al-Sharaa’s main backer, it’s all smiles.

Still, this is far from a done deal. Both Damascus and the SDF have already claimed ceasefire violations, including nearly a dozen deaths and many more wounded.

Intrigue’s Take

Any disappointment at al-Sharaa’s Davos absence was probably just the missed poetry of a jihadist officially completing his apotheosis to legitimate statesman by appearing on a Davos panel and maybe even rocking a puffer jacket.

But while al-Sharaa has made remarkable progress abroad (whether getting the Saudis and Qataris to pay off Syria’s debt, or getting the State webmaster to scrub the US bounty on his head), he’s continued to struggle on the home front as Druze, Alawites, Kurds and other minority factions fret about his true intentions.

Meanwhile, Israel has been awfully quiet, though it’ll be alarmed at its US allies seemingly now aligning with regional foes Turkey. The Kurds (like the Druze and others) have also played a role in Israel’s long-running periphery doctrine (to back other regional minorities partly as a way to dilute and distract powers). Some argue Israel benefits long-term from a stable, unified Syrian neighbour, but that really depends on who’s at the helm in Damascus — and for all his wins, the world is still getting to know Ahmed Al-Sharaa.

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

Our commodities corner is back!

• Energy: Wind and solar accounted for 30% of the EU’s electricity in 2025, beating out fossil fuels for the first time.

• Oil: The boffins at the International Energy Agency are forecasting an expansion in the world’s current oil surplus for Q1 2026.

• Cocoa: The world’s largest cocoa producer (Ivory Coast) will buy 100,000 tonnes of surplus cocoa from its farmers in an effort to sustain falling prices.

Flag of the day

We just wrapped our team retreat in Charleston, South Carolina (aka Charlie South), and for a bunch of diplomats whose job was literally to sit near flags, we uttered a surprising number of ooohs and aaahhs at all the South Carolina state flags around town.

Its appeal is in its visual simplicity, though there are debates on the details: eg, is that a) a crescent moon, b) the insignia from Revolutionary War hats, and/or c) a gorget (old-school armour)? Historians lean more towards options b and c — the colonel who created the flag also seems to have borrowed the blue from his soldiers’ coats.

As for the state’s iconic palmetto there in the centre? The state added it later as a shout-out to the trees that helped protect a local fortress from British cannon fire.

Intrigue’s score: 9.9/10

Today’s poll

Yesterday’s poll: Do you think Trump's Board of Peace could replace the UN?

👍 Yes, the UN is practically useless (12%)

👎 No, it's the usual bluster (85%)

✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)

Your two cents:

• 👎 E.K.H: “It's clearly about the ego and ambition of one man. The UN isn't great, but it has nearly universal buy-in.”

• 👍 D.F: “If only the UN were useless — rather, it serves as a body that relentlessly lends legitimacy to dictators, totalitarians, and terror supporters at the expense of Western liberal values. Have nothing at all would be better.”

• ✍️ S.B: “Strengthen the UN… and rethink the Security Council.”