Number of the day

2 million

That’s roughly how many casualties the Russo-Ukraine war has left to date, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. By some estimates, Moscow is now losing as many troops in a month as the Soviets lost during a decade in Afghanistan.

The world watches

For a team of ex-diplomats normally more focused on events beyond the US border, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) actions started as more of a domestic story.

Sure, immigration enforcement is inherently international: those with big undocumented diasporas (Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador) have long been issuing sharper citizen advisories urging their nationals to carry ID, avoid key sites, and know their rights.

And others (like China) started warning their nationals after fatal ICE shootings.

But now, a year into Trump 2.0’s tougher immigration stance, this story is clearly global.

Here are four examples:

1. “I have been harder than anyone else in Italy on [the ICE raids] … but it’s not like the SS are coming” – Antonio Tajani, Italy’s foreign minister

That’s the foreign minister of a NATO ally and G7 member weighing in on ICE. Why?

First, footage emerged of ICE agents in Minneapolis threatening to smash the windows of a vehicle containing a crew for Italian public broadcaster RAI, and threatening to drag the journalists out. Italy’s foreign ministry wants answers.

Then second, Italian journalists started asking if ICE agents will be in Milan for the upcoming Winter Olympics, and an Italian official’s confirmation triggered a mix of panic and confusion until the local US ambassador clarified that the particular ICE unit “will be strictly advisory and intelligence-based, with no patrolling or enforcement involvement.”

But the damage was already done, escalating to a city-federal spat in Italy: Milan’s centre-left mayor labelled ICE a “militia that kills” and declared it unwelcome in Milan, prompting more statements from centre-right Rome reframing the ICE role as routine.

Meanwhile, a citizen petition to block ICE has amassed tens of thousands of signatures overnight, with Mayor Sala putting it like this: “Can’t we just say no to Trump for once?”

Now follow us back in time with…

2. “This issue could have a considerable impact on foreign direct investment in the US” – Lee Jae-Myung, president of South Korea

That’s another US ally and G20 member after ICE detained ~400 Korean nationals at a raid on Hyundai’s vaunted battery plant in Georgia a few months ago. It was an early hint at how one aim (tougher immigration) can quickly complicate another (stronger economy).

Why? Wall Street always assumed a tougher immigration stance would mostly hit sectors like agriculture, construction, and hospitality, not just because of deportations, but because fear of deportation would spike absenteeism. And that’s already in the data:

• Individual farms have reported record crop spoilage amid labour shortfalls

• The construction sector says it needs another 350k workers to meet demand, and

• The leisure & hospitality sector now has something like a million vacancies.

Meanwhile, parts of the broligarchy are now voicing unease too, presumably given how much Silicon Valley relies on talented migrants, whether they’re founding 55% of all unicorns, doing 74% of all Bay Area computer/math jobs, or running a third of the top 100 US tech firms. Tech employees don’t seem comforted by the fact these ICE actions are mostly targeting lower-skilled, undocumented workers.

And it’s not just US companies feeling the heat…

3. “I urge Capgemini to shed light, in an extremely transparent manner, on its activities” – Roland Lescure, France’s industry minister

Leaks have now revealed that French tech giant Capgemini has helped ICE agents locate targets for raids, triggering an online backlash plus even calls for an EU blacklisting (it’s one of the bloc’s largest tech services providers).

And of course, an Intrigue story is not complete without angry diplomats, so…

4. “Acts of this nature must not be repeated in Ecuador’s consular offices in the United States” – Ecuador’s foreign ministry

After a video went viral showing ICE agents trying to enter Ecuador’s consulate in Minneapolis, Quito (run by the Trump-friendly Daniel Noboa) got angry. 

In the video, a consulate staffer tells the agent, “this is the consulate of Ecuador, you are not allowed to enter”, prompting the answer, “I didn’t enter… if you touch me, I will grab you.”

There might now be a dash of schadenfreude in Mexico, given it was Ecuadorian officers who themselves breached Mexico’s embassy to haul Ecuador’s ex-veep to jail in 2024. 

Anyway, you can bet these ICE headlines will keep rippling elsewhere, partly for reasons evident on ICE’s own website: with offices all around the world, it’s using the motto, “Crime does not stop at our borders, and neither do we.”

Intrigue’s Take

The international order rests on state sovereignty, which in turn rests on states managing their own borders and enforcing their own laws, and President Trump swept back to power pledging tougher enforcement of immigration laws — unlawful border crossings are down ~95%.

But what we’re now witnessing illustrates something else:

First, polling suggests initial support for the concept has now given way to dismay over implementation, which leads us to…

Second, you could argue that’s a pattern for Trump, who’s turned (say) let’s secure the Arctic to let’s threaten Greenland.

Third, slogans are catchy, but policy is messy, particularly in such a human-centric area like migration.

Fourth, soft power is tough to build, but easy to lose — more a lease than an asset. One year Taylor Swift has Milan fans camping out for days, and the next you’ve got Italy’s foreign minister having to clarify you’re not actually the SS.

Finally, our hyper-connected world now means any ‘domestic’ illusion is dead, with over-reach in Minneapolis quickly becoming outrage in Rome or Quito.

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

In other worlds…

• Tech: Amazon has announced it’s laying off 16,000 employees in its latest round of staff cuts.

• Science: A US virologist and amateur brewer has created a vaccine in beer form (cheers to innovation).

• Sports: The entire Malaysian football executive committee has resigned over a scandal involving forged documents for foreign players to play in the Asia Cup.

Back and forth of the day

Unless you’ve been living under a rock (is there space for us too actually?) you’ll have seen memes about France’s Emmanuel Macron having to rock blue aviators at Davos. He says it was doctor’s orders for him to go full Bono after a burst blood vessel, and honestly if we had to get sick, we’d also choose the condition that medically requires you to wear shades like you’re Tom Selleck solving crimes in 1980s Hawaii.

Anyway, all that throat-clearing by way of context for why the UK’s Keir Starmer just got laughs by donning a pair of aviators at a comedy show then greeting the crowd with a “bonjour”. And Macron, never one to be upstaged, responded on TikTok within minutes with his other Davos viral moment: “for sure”.

Today’s poll

Yesterday’s poll: How do you feel about a weaker USD?

👍 Good, tell us why… (44%)
👎 Bad, tell us why…. (52%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (4%)

Your two cents:

• 👎 A: “Simply put, because it is one tangible result of losing global confidence in our economy.”

• 👍 M.R: “No chance to restore manufacturing or reduce trade imbalance with strong DXY.”

• 👎 I.S: “Because I don’t live in America, but have a lot of money (for me that is) invested there, as a hedge against my own currency, which has appreciated 1,841% against the dollar in the three years since I invested the money!”