Iran is targeting US radars, is the strategy paying off?

Here’s what’s happened in the 24 hours since Intrigue last cannon-balled into your inbox:

The war:

• Nato air defences have downed a second Iranian ballistic missile in Turkish airspace — it’s getting harder for the regime to claim these are accidents.
• President Macron is deploying two frigates to beef up the EU’s Red Sea ops.
• And new evidence suggests the US was responsible for the day-one airstrike on a girls’ school in southern Iran, killing ~175 (mostly children). One hypothesis blames old intel from before the school was separated from the adjacent base.

The markets:

• The G7 finance ministerial ended without a decision on whether to release emergency oil reserves to cushion the blow of $100+ oil prices. But oil prices kept easing anyway, likely because President Trump told reporters the war is “very complete, pretty much”, though “we haven’t won enough”.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have vowed “not a single litre” of oil will get out while US and Israeli strikes continue (how about that metric system trolling).
• And the regime says the only exception will be for European and Middle Eastern countries that expel their local Israeli and US ambassadors — that’s not happening (most of the region doesn’t even have an Israeli ambassador), but it’s interesting to see how the regime views its Hormuz leverage.

And the miscellaneous:

• Australia has started offering asylum to members of Iran’s women’s soccer team after state TV labelled them traitors for not singing the national anthem at the Women’s Asian Cup (President Trump weighed in for them too).

As for this briefing’s quick focus?

US radar systems. There’s little surprising about the US/Israeli ability to fry most of the regime’s military. What’s maybe surprising is the regime’s ability to land big hits back.

And while headlines naturally gravitate to (say) the world’s tallest building ablaze, or influencers fleeing drones at DXB, Iran’s quieter hits might be more painful.

Why so quiet? Like any military, the US is quick to release its enemy battle damage assessments, but details on its own damage come slowly (if at all).

That leaves online grifters and spooks to fill the void, but commercial satellite imagery makes it possible to triangulate at least two confirmed hits on advanced US radars.

• The first was in Jordan, where Iran hit a $300M, Raytheon-built AN/TPY-2 radar known for its long range, sharp precision, and full mobility.
• The second was in Qatar, where Iran hit a Raytheon-built AN/FPS-132 known for its even longer range (5,000km), multi-target skills, and higher price (~$1B).

So Iran has now arguably fried the region’s outer US radar layer, plus a ~sixth of its inner layer known as the ‘eyes’ of THAAD (America’s top-tier ballistic missile defence system).

There’s also evidence to suggest Iran has damaged US radar domes in Kuwait, a satellite comms system in Bahrain, and a radar in Saudi Arabia — clearly trying to blind US forces.

And… is all this really a big deal? Yes and no.

No, in the sense that a) this damage mostly occurred during Iran’s initial swarms, b) that swarm capability is fading fast, and c) the US and its allies still thwart most attacks.

But yes it’s a big deal longer term in the sense that these systems are clearly…

• Rare: there are were only six of those Qatar-style systems in the world, and maybe 16 of the Jordan ones
• Irreplaceable: that rarer Qatar system is ~half the size of a soccer field and takes five+ years to build; even the portable Jordan system takes two+ years
• Valuable: these high-tech radars are difficult to further harden without degrading their performance, and yet they’re also…
• Vulnerable: at least some of the damage seems to have come via cheap drones.

And of course, everyone (including China and Russia) is all the while taking notes on what it now takes to partially blind a wartime US.

Oh, and lest you have any doubt about the implications, the world’s biggest open-source satellite imagery provider shining a light on all this (Planet) just announced a new 14-day delay for certain Middle East images after ✌️consulting✌️ with DC (aka Pentagon pressure).

Intrigue’s Take

One conclusion here is that, while the US military is still one heck of a hammer, not every enemy is a nail. Of course, that’s hardly a new conclusion: the US already learned this via its post-2001 war on terror (not to mention Vietnam et al).

But the issue is this terrorism experience only delivered one half of today’s lesson: sure, the US went on to pioneer drones to hit niche targets in (say) the mountains of Afghanistan, but DC is finally waking up to a world where your enemy has drones, too.

And there’s really only one place in the free world that’s figured out the answer: with Putin using city drone hits to compensate for his frontline failures, and with DC throttling Patriot access, it’s Ukraine that’s had to pioneer how to flip that cost asymmetry:

• While the US still mostly burns millions to thwart each $20k drone, Ukraine’s high-speed interceptor drones are $1-5k each, with a claimed ~70% hit rate and rising.

So that’s how Ukraine’s Zelensky has suddenly popped back on world leader speed-dial lists, with a reported ~11 capitals now seeking his help. And he’s saying yes not just because he’s a stand-out guy, but because: a) it’s a chance to build much-needed goodwill; b) it converts Ukraine from liability to asset; c) it boosts Ukraine’s defence exports and forex; and d) it hurts Putin (who’s helped Iran’s targeting).

So in the end, this Middle Eastern conflict might now accelerate a very Ukrainian solution, after the US reportedly declined a Ukrainian anti-drone tech deal last year.

In the meantime, we’ve all now witnessed how merely hinting at this war’s end answered a historic oil price ramp-up with a historic oil price ramp-down. And pending any regime capitulation, that potentially sharpens DC’s dilemma: end the energy chaos by ending the war, but run the risk of just validating the regime’s entire Hormuz survival strategy.

Sound even smarter:

• In case you’re wondering, America’s five remaining AN/FPS-132 radar systems are located at Beale (CA), Cape Cod (MA), Alaska, Greenland, and the UK.