With the sun hanging low over Dublin, a government Falcon 6X touches down under heavy security at a nearby military airbase. The engine cools. The doors open. And out steps one of the world's most wanted men — in a black hoodie.
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IRAN
The regime in Iran is now signalling it’s in the “final stages” of a new shipping-route arrangement with neighbouring Oman, though warns full Hormuz reopening still hinges on the US making major concessions: unfreeze assets, lift sanctions, withdraw forces, end the blockade, and halt all hits on Iran’s proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, etc). (Guardian)
RUSSIA
Syria’s foreign ministry says it’s now allowed Russia to regain control of Hmeimem air base and Tartus naval base. Under the agreement, Syria will administer the civilian portions, while Russia and Syria will jointly run the remainder as ✌️training centres✌️. (AP)Comment: Those sassy air quotes are because Putin is happy for the Syrians to slap whatever they want on the label, so long as he regains access to Russia’s only port on the Mediterranean (plus one of Russia’s rare warm-water ports anywhere). The reality is Syria’s new rulers also need to manage this branding carefully, given Putin’s own decades of support for the Assad regime and its atrocities.
ISRAEL
Prime Minister Netanyahu has turned down President Trump’s latest 15-point plan for Gaza, insisting Israeli forces won’t withdraw until Hamas disarms completely (the IDF still holds ~60% of the Strip). (CNN)Comment: Nobody likes a told-you-so, but darnit, we flagged our doubts back when Trump first made the announcement. It’s hard to see Bibi ever making (or being seen to make) any concessions on this front, let alone while he’s lagging in the polls ahead of October’s elections. Plus Trump’s own midterm challenge will increasingly distract DC ahead of November.
MYANMAR
Myanmar’s military rulers have dismissed a renewed call from ASEAN to release Aung San Suu Kyi, the democratically elected leader ousted in the 2021 coup. Interestingly, however, the junta has now released four proof-of-life photos and allowed a Red Cross visit. (FT $)
TURKEY
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey have announced a new NATO-style defence pact, with an attack on one seen as an attack on all. It builds on last year’s initial Saudi-Pakistan deal, with Egypt rumoured to be next. (BBC)
COLOMBIA
Replacing the populist-left Petro, hard-right outsider Abelardo ‘El Tigre’ de la Espriella has taken the oath of office in front of Spain’s King Felipe VI, Argentina’s Milei, Ecuador’s Noboa, Chile’s Kast, and FIFA’s Infantino (who should really resign rather than swan around like a world leader). The US has signalled support by pledging $1B in security aid (pending Congress) and welcoming Colombia into Trump’s Shield of the Americas. (Al Jazeera)
SERBIA
Ukraine’s Zelensky has made his first official visit to Belgrade, receiving a full honour-guard welcome from Serbia’s Russia-friendly Vučić. (Le Monde)
TAIWAN
Taipei has deliberately throttled its own internet for the first time as part of an attack simulation on Taiwan’s telecoms infrastructure. It comes as Taiwan’s cabinet prepares to increase the democracy’s defence budget by 16%, crossing the $1T line. (Reuters)
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