Latest news for 5 May 2026

IRAN

Ceasefire over?

We flagged that President Trump’s new Project Freedom to escort stranded ships out of Hormuz would be a game of chicken, and sure enough, at least two more commercial ships (from Korea and the UAE) have now taken hits. With the US then claiming hits on Iranian fast-boats, and the UAE reporting a presumed Iranian strike on another oil hub, the ceasefire now hangs by a thread, with Brent up 5% to $113. (Bloomberg $)

CHINA

Fireworks probe.

Xi Jinping has ordered an investigation into a deadly fireworks factory explosion in central China that’s left dozens dead, adding that “those responsible must be held accountable”. (Al Jazeera)

Comment: In a familiar pattern for Xi’s China, local authorities had apparently tried to conceal the full scope of the incident to avoid condemnation.

ARMENIA

EU betcha.

European leaders are in Yerevan for two back-to-back summits: the first-ever EU-Armenia summit, then a meeting of the European Political Community. (RFE/RL)

Comment: European leaders love to meet, but this is intriguing because it’s further proof of Armenia’s European pivot. Remember Armenia was technically one of Russia’s few treaty allies until Putin failed to intervene in Azerbaijan’s lightning offensive in 2023. Europe is also hoping to send a signal to everyday Armenians, who’ll use June’s elections to decide whether their country stays on a pro-EU trajectory.

FIJI

Competing security deals.

Australia’s foreign minister is on another charm mission to regional hub Fiji, hoping to upgrade ties to a broader security and economic treaty. (Fiji Sun)

Comment: It’s part of Australia’s continued pushback on China’s regional influence, while China is now reportedly lobbying hard against Australia’s stalled treaty with neighbouring Vanuatu. The region’s China-West competition continues to leave strategically-located Pacific Island nations with more leverage than ever.

INDIA

The local is national.

The results from four key state elections are rolling in, with Prime Minister Modi’s ruling BJP nationalists winning two states, including a longtime opposition stronghold. There’s been another surprise in the southern state of Tamil Nadu (pop ~77 million), where actor-turned-politician Vijay has pulled off a massive upset with his new party breaking the traditional duopoly to seize power. (Economic Times)

MEXICO

Sinking feeling.

Mexico City is now one of the world’s fastest-sinking cities, according to new NASA data. Built atop an ancient reservoir that’s been over-pumped, the megapolis is now falling over 24cms (9in) annually. (NASA)

Comment: If you’re wondering about that sneaky “one of” above, it’s because sinking cities are weirdly common: Indonesia is moving its capital partly because Jakarta is slowly submerging, with similar challenges also facing Bangkok and Lagos.

ZAMBIA

Health for minerals.

Zambia is pushing back against a US plan to tie $2B in health funding to a critical minerals deal, arguing the two should be considered separately. Authorities have also raised privacy concerns around a data-sharing clause the US wants. (Reuters)

Comment: The official reason for that US data-sharing clause is to ensure the program is using US taxpayer funds effectively, though locals also fear it’s about Big Pharma getting a strategic advantage via early access to novel pathogens.