Latest news for 29 May 2026

IRAN

Close, but no shisha?

We kicked off the week exploring duelling reports of some kind of 60-day deal to re-open Hormuz then restart nuclear talks. And those reports are now back, with America’s VP Vance adding more weight to rumours that some kind of deal is indeed close, though cautioning that the US is “not there yet”. (BBC)

Comment: Yet again, the reported “final wrinkles” in any deal still actually sound like major hurdles: Vance highlights Iran’s enriched stockpile and enrichment. So maybe all the pressure indeed produces a clear and meaningful deal, but in the meantime, we’re not the first to joke that this latest announcement is like saying we’ve almost bought a house, we’re just finalising some tiny details (like whether the house is even for sale).

ROMANIA

Drone strike on NATO?

A presumed Russian drone crossed into Romanian airspace and hit a residential apartment overnight, causing a fire and injuries. (Romania’s defence ministry)

Comment: Putin has recently jammed Ukrainian drones into NATO airspace across the Baltics, but this would be the first direct Russian hit on a civilian site on NATO turf. *If* deliberate, it could be another attempt to i) fuel NATO disunity, ii) test NATO (non) responses, iii) expand the war’s costs on Ukraine’s backers, and iv) erode public trust in NATO governments. The most likely response is for Romania to trigger NATO Article 4 (consultations). Meanwhile, and true to form, Russia’s local ambassador is a) denying responsibility, b) blaming Ukraine, and c) dismissing any evidence. Become an Intrigue Insider to join our group chat on this topic and beyond!

SOUTH KOREA

Dissident dilemma.

South Korea’s coast guard has picked up a 68-year-old Chinese dissident after he crossed the 350km-wide (220mi) Yellow Sea in a tiny inflatable boat! It’s now the fourth time Dong Guangping, a former police officer, has attempted to escape China to reunite with his family (now in Canada). (CNN)

Comment: Thailand deported him the first time, Fujian fisherman thwarted his second (swimming!) attempt, and Vietnam deported him after #3. This fourth attempt not only hints at the desperation among China’s brave critics, but also now puts South Korea in a real bind: accepting his refugee claim will rock South Korea’s efforts to stabilise its China ties, but returning him is probably illegal. Precedent suggests Seoul might slowly and quietly facilitate his transit to Canada without embarrassing Beijing.

PHILIPPINES

Sharing is caring.

Japan and the Philippines have announced they’ll begin talks on an agreement to share classified information. (Reuters)

ISRAEL

Expanding control.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has told a conference he's directed the IDF to seize 70% of Gaza’s territory, up from the 53% negotiated as part of the US-brokered October ceasefire. Talks between Israel and Hamas have broken down amid mutual accusations of ceasefire violations. (NYT $)

BRAZIL

Junior meets Trump.

Conservative presidential hopeful Flávio Bolsonaro (son of Brazil’s jailed ex-leader Jair) met President Trump in DC on Tuesday, in hopes of a polling boost ahead of Brazil’s high-stakes elections in October. (Al Jazeera)

Comment: Bolsonaro Jr looked neck-and-neck until earlier this month, when someone leaked audio of him asking a disgraced banker for $12M to fund a puff-piece film about his dad! Brazil’s incumbent left-leaning Lula now leads comfortably again. We recently explored the role of audio bombshells in LatAm politics.

EUROPEAN UNION

Temu fined.

The European Union has slapped China’s Temu e-commerce giant with a $233M fine for failing to take down potentially harmful products, including unsafe chargers and choke-hazard baby toys. (EuroNews)

MOROCCO

Call failed.

Over 40,000 Moroccans stand to lose their jobs in August, when a French law banning impromptu telemarketing calls comes into effect. (Le Monde)