Did Trump make the right call?

With the US now hitting Iran directly for the first time, we’re all left with two big questions.

• First, was this the right call?

Backers argue the ayatollah runs a fascist, expansionist regime openly calling for Israel’s destruction and sponsoring like-minded terrorist groups, all while stringing a naïve world along with talks, yet still stockpiling uranium enriched to 60% (way beyond the 3-5% you need for civilian use). So the US president has now hit Iran’s nuclear program, avoided any US boots on the ground, and restored US deterrence in the process. What’s not to like?

Ah, well critics argue he’s violated laws, ignored sanguine US intelligence, revealed a double standard on Israel’s own nuclear program, and breached his own pledge to avoid wars, yet might’ve now a) vindicated if not accelerated whatever’s left of Iran’s nuclear program, b) incentivised more attacks on US interests, and c) undermined US credibility — why do a deal if a later US president might withdraw then bomb you?

But you know what? History’s answer to all this might ultimately depend on…

• Second, what happens next?

US messaging has effectively been ‘no backsies‘ — ie, we’re done here, unless you try us.

But Iran is sending mixed signals across its military, nuclear, and economic fronts:

In terms of any military response, regime officials are telling Western outlets they’ll limit any retaliation to further (dwindling) strikes on Israel, but there are also claims Iran might

• Activate sleeper cells abroad (though that might just vindicate these US strikes)
• Activate Iranian proxies in the Middle East (though they’re now so weak), and/or
• Pull a repeat of Tehran’s response to Trump’s 2020 hit on General Soleimani (ie, telegraph a symbolic response to avoid any actual US harm or escalation).

Then on Iran’s nuclear program, Tehran claims this is barely a flesh wound, arguing a) it already relocated nuclear material (initial intel agrees), and b) it’s already rebuilding “with even greater strength“. I.e., you can flatten buildings, collapse bunkers, and even shatter centrifuges, but that’s not the same as reversing a long-term determination to go nuclear.

And finally on the economic front, Iran’s parliament is floating the idea of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, but that’s really up to Iran’s leader. And he’ll note that, while threatening ~5% of America’s oil supply, this would really screw both a) Iran’s friends (China gets 45% of its oil via Hormuz), and b) its neighbours: the Emiratis export 60% of their oil via Hormuz, while it’s 88% for the Saudis, and pretty much 100% for the Iraqis, Qataris, and Kuwaitis.

So… what’s Iran gonna do?

One driver is the fact that Israel’s assassinations have seemingly targeted Iran’s hardliners, potentially nudging Tehran’s remaining balance away from more escalation.

But yet another indicator is the oil price, which has remained surprisingly stable given everything we’ve just outlined above: that’s a bet we’re not on the brink. At least, not yet.

Intrigue’s Take

So, how’s the rest of the world viewing this? While a couple of US allies have now openly backed these strikes, most are staying out of it (aka issuing vague calls for de-escalation).

As for US rivals? They’ve been remarkably unified, with Beijing, Moscow, Pyongyang, Havana, and Caracas all issuing spicy condemnations. Why? Marxist-Leninists, Putinists, Juchists, Communists, and Chavistas have little in common, but one thing they share with Iran’s theocrats is an ideological opposition to the US, or at least to US interventionism.

And there may be no more potent demonstration of continued American reach than this weekend’s display that a US president can still hit any target, at any time, and with tech mostly developed back when MacGyver was still on TV.

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