Here’s what’s next for TikTok

As markets stubbed their toe on Trump’s high-stakes tariff reveal this week, it was almost possible to forget about that pesky April 5 (tomorrow) deadline for TikTok’s China-based parent company to sell up or face a painful US ban.

And while Trump extended that deadline on his first day back in office, it now looks like this one might stick, with Trump saying a deal is “very close”.

So, who’s gonna buy it?

The list of candidates is longer than Dune, including…

• Amazon, which just lodged a last-minute bid

• The Caymans-based HBAR Foundation (crypto) with the UK’s OnlyFans founders

• Perplexity, the US-based AI search start-up

• ‘Project Liberty’, which pledges more user control, backed by rich-listers like Reddit’s Alexis Ohanian and Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary

• Musk was reportedly in the mix there for a while too, and

• There’s an Oracle-led bid backed by US investors like A16z and Blackstone, who want to buy TikTok’s China-based parent company’s stake in its US operations (pre-existing US investors like General Atlantic and KKR also want more).

With the app’s 170 million devoted US users driving a likely valuation into the tens of billions, this whole deal is giving off seagulls-squabbling-over-french-fries vibes.

And it’s all hush-hush, but word is the Oracle-led bid is emerging as the top seagull.

But that leaves us with three questions.

First, will TikTok’s China-based parent (ByteDance) agree?

It’s consistently said no, and TikTok boss Shou Chew has been working the halls in DC and Mar-a-Lago to plead his case, arguing the whole ✌️national security✌️ narrative is just a smokescreen to help US rivals who can’t keep up.

But even if that’s just been a hardball tactic rather than a final position, it’s then unclear what exactly is for sale: investors want more than a Google Drive folder with TikTok’s logo. Rather, they want TikTok’s secret sauce: its prized algorithm.

There’s been word maybe TikTok’s owners might just license that algorithm rather than sell it, but if that’s the case, some of the possible US buyers above might just pull out.

But even if you get buyers and sellers aligned…

Second, will China’s Communist Party agree?

It’s already said no for a bunch of reasons, including:

• Selling TikTok would mean handing an advanced technology to the US, and

• Beijing wouldn’t approve such a tech transfer under duress.

And of course, the very ability of the Party to block TikTok’s sale has fuelled US lawmaker concerns that TikTok’s vast US reach is ultimately answerable to an authoritarian rival.

But interestingly, Beijing’s tone has shifted since Trump’s return, with officials now noting more neutrally that it’s ultimately up to the companies and investors themselves. That could suggest the Party’s initial opposition was a negotiation tactic rather than a veto.

And third, what’s at stake either way?

If everyone agrees and a sale goes through, it could be an off-ramp for all involved:

• The app’s 170 million users still get to watch skaters chug Ocean Spray while lip-syncing to Fleetwood Mac

• Millions of the app’s US creators and small businesses still get to generate income

• US investors get a bigger stake in the platform’s profits

• China’s investors take billions off the table while TikTok wins non-US markets, and

• Trump and Xi have one less irritant to square away.

But if this sale doesn’t go through, it’s the inverse, but also:

• Trump will feel the wrath of millions of American TikTokers (though he’ll presumably note it was Biden who signed the sell-or-ban law), and

• TikTok will still be available to (and profitable from) its 90% non-US user base.

As for Trump and Xi? Both will still claim a win if any sale falls over:

• For Trump, it’ll be proof that you play by US rules, or you don’t play at all

• But for Xi, it’ll be proof you can ditch the US and still thrive elsewhere.

Anyway, at this late stage, we might see a grey announcement declaring that real negotiations are now underway, stringing the deadline along while haggling continues.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

Any Washingtonians will have seen through a dazed commuter haze just how much TikTok has doubled down with its ads on the DC Metro lately, showcasing successful American Dream stories resting on continued access to TikTok. That’s the fun of living in a world capital: burrito meal deals spliced with ads for killer drones and lobbyists.

Anyway, to the extent these talks are now back at the DC-Beijing level again, you can bet Trump’s latest 34% tariffs on China will be part of the haggling: just greenlight TikTok’s sale, and we’ll ease those tariffs back a little. And of course, that’d further vindicate US fears of TikTok ultimately being answerable to Beijing, but a deal’s a deal.

Also worth noting:

• Key backers of the leading Oracle bid, like A16z’s Marc Andreessen and Oracle’s Larry Ellison, are known to be close to Trump.

• Meanwhile, Trump’s nominee for US ambassador to China (former executive and gubernatorial candidate David Perdue) had his Senate foreign relations committee hearing yesterday (Thursday). The two-hour session went without incident.