🌍 Can Takaichi save Japan?
Plus: The best way to catch a robber
|
Today’s briefing: |
|
Good morning Intriguer. There are weekends when, like a good episode of Seinfeld, nothing happens.
Then there are others when, like a late-vintage episode of 24, everything happens. We arguably just got the latter, with the Czechs electing a new government, a Gaza peace now within reach, Georgians re-taking the streets, OPEC ramping up its oil output again, Putin firing another 500 drones at Ukraine, and Japan effectively getting a new leader. Oh, and France’s new PM resigned just moments ago, barely three weeks after his appointment.
Today’s briefing takes a closer look at Japan’s next prime minister, but like an episode of CSI, we’ll dutifully figure out how to tie the other plot-lines in too. Onwards.
Number of the day
70
That’s roughly how many Gaza aid flotilla activists Israel will deport today (Monday), including 28 French nationals, 27 Greeks, 15 Italians, and nine Swedes (Greta Thunberg among them). The remaining ~300 or so are due for deportation within days, after Israel intercepted their 45 vessels in international waters late last week.
Choose your character
As we foreshadowed last month, Japan's beleaguered Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) just elected Sanae Takaichi (64) as its leader, meaning she'll now become Japan's next (and first female) prime minister when the legislature meets on October 15.
It’s a tough gig, so we’ve channelled our love for Japanese pop culture with a quick Takaichi character profile, starting with the obligatory…
-
🕰️ Flashback
Unlike most recent PMs, Takaichi hails not from a political dynasty, but from an auto industry dad and a police officer mother. So right through her business degree in Kobe, there wasn't much to hint at any world leader in the making, until…
-
🎽 Training montage
A prestigious fellowship with Colorado’s first congresswoman whetted her appetite for politics, and her early years as a TV host back home shaped her media savvy, helping her win a seat in Japan's parliament just as its economic bubble was bursting in 1993.
But it's hard for an obscure independent to get much done among the Diet's ~700 lawmakers, so Takaichi joined the ruling party and got herself a…
-
🧓 Mentor
She and Shinzo Abe were conservative kindred spirits and, as a top backer then minister in his cabinet, she shaped and endorsed Abe’s signature 'Abenomics' stimulus aimed at reflating and reforming Japan's economy (she's vowing more of that).
Takaichi was also a classic Abe protégé when it came to…
-
㊙️ The secret weapon
A classic hawk on China, she wants to finish what Abe started, including to revise Japan's pacifist constitution, rebuild its armed forces, and reassert Japanese strength against China's claims not only over the Senkaku Islands, but even Taiwan. That’ll also force her into a…
-
⛩️ Great trial
Days after Takaichi takes power, Japan's Yasukuni Shrine festival kicks off, and the world will be watching whether she turns up. The shrine houses the spirits of Japan's war dead (including war criminals), so her base will want her there again, but that’ll not only rattle rivals like China, but also fellow US allies like Korea and the Philippines. Meanwhile…
-
🗺️ Side quest
We're also obliged to mention Takaichi once drummed in a heavy metal band, named fellow social conservative Margaret Thatcher as her role model, and was overjoyed when Toyota restored her beloved 1991 Supra to its original condition (it's now in a museum).
Anyway, maybe that all accumulated the experience points necessary for her…
-
🙏 Redemptive arc
Takaichi ran for the top job twice before, but kept bumping up against factions preferring to play it safe. Now in 2025, however, Japan’s ruling LDP is not only ready for, but feels it actively needs Takaichi’s firebrand politics: she's moderated a bit, but her colleagues are hoping she can stem the exodus of conservative voters without irking her moderates.
And that’s how Sanae Takaichi pulled off the ultimate level-up in Japanese politics.
Intrigue’s Take
Of course, the big question now is whether Takaichi can defeat Japan’s final boss, whether at home (a mid economy) or abroad (a darkening outlook).
Like them or not, Abe’s expansionist economics and nationalist politics were a turning point, and Takaichi is pledging an Abe 3.0 as prime minister. But the world has changed a staggering amount since Abe’s 2022 assassination, let alone his 2020 resignation.
Takaichi’s party is now less powerful, her US allies less predictable, Japan’s finances less manageable, and China’s assurances (standing aside despots like Kim and Putin) less comforting.
Sound even smarter:
-
Japan’s opposition parties could theoretically band together to elect someone else as PM on the 15th, but those parties mostly hate one another too much.
-
Takaichi just tweeted that she’s working through her 600 congratulatory texts, and will announce key party leadership positions today (Monday).
Meanwhile, elsewhere…
 |
🇮🇱 ISRAEL – Gaza peace? Comment: We say ‘semi-accepted’ because Hamas was notably silent on the plan’s demands that it disarm and disband. To the contrary, the Hamas statement flagged its intention to fully participate in talks about Gaza’s future. |
 |
🇻🇪 VENEZUELA – Land strikes next? Comment: This has been rumoured for weeks, as nearby US assets (and drills) increasingly reflect amphibious capabilities. It’d be a big escalation, and arguably confirm assessments that Trump wants to destabilise Maduro’s grip on power. |
 |
🇸🇾 SYRIA – To the ballot box. Comment: The argument is this hybrid model was necessary given the reality of trying to organise full elections in the post-war context. And al-Sharaa is saying he’ll use his 70 seats to fill any gaps in representation from across Syria. |
 |
🇨🇿 CZECH REPUBLIC – The billionaire is back. Comment: Babiš has now got to do deals with fringe parties, some of whom give more Kremlin-friendly vibes. He’s reiterated his support for both the EU and NATO, though he pitches himself as wanting improvements. So there’s a possibility he’ll reshape Czechia to resemble Eurosceptic neighbours like Hungary and Slovakia. |
 |
🇨🇺 CUBA – Helping Russia? Comment: It’s likely a reference to reports of Russia recruiting more mercenaries from Cuba. We’re curious why the White House now cares so much about this non-binding resolution, which yet again passed last year with 187 countries supporting, and just two against (the US and Israel). It has no practical impact, but is a stark illustration of how US efforts to isolate Cuba can backfire. |
 |
🇮🇩 INDONESIA – TikTok is back. Comment: Nobody likes a told-you-so, but it was only last week we mused about how governments will respond to recent Gen-Z protests with more social media crackdowns. Interestingly, TikTok initially declined to comply with all of Jakarta’s demands, but the brief ban must’ve jolted the senses, in a vivid reminder of where the leverage sits when dealing with one of the platform’s biggest markets. |
 |
🇸🇴 SOMALIA – Jailbreak. |
 |
🇬🇪 GEORGIA – Fury. Comment: One of the detained figures is a revered opera star (Burchuladze), who was urging law enforcement to arrest leaders of the ruling party. The party will have thought (hoped?) this unrest was all behind it. |
Extra Intrigue
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
-
AI chatbots are sending tourists to non-existent destinations.
-
A cyberattack means Japan’s most popular beer is now facing shortages.
-
An Egyptian strongman just pulled a 635,000kg (700-ton) ship with his teeth.
-
A Utah university just censored a conference about censorship.
-
And cops have caught a Colorado burglary suspect after he walked behind TV crews recording a segment about him.
Ski resort of the day
Credits: Laax.
Three small villages in Switzerland (Flims, Laax and Falera) are gearing up for referendums (referenda 🤓) this month on the possibility of buying local skiing infrastructure, amid reports US giants like Vail have been sniffing around for more potential acquisitions.
Interestingly, the current local owner has already flagged he’s happy to accept less cash if it means one of Switzerland’s largest ski resorts stays in local hands. It’s very on-brand for the Swiss, with their long history of preferring local ownership and control.
Today’s poll
Do you think Takaichi can save Japan? |
Last Thursday’s poll: How long do you think this US government shutdown will last?
⊖ Under one week (4%)
✚ A week or so (20%)
2️⃣ Two weeks (26%)
🗓️ Longer (50%)
✍️ Other (write us!) (0%)
Your two cents:
-
🗓️ R.C: “Elections in November may be needed to sway negotiations.” [several US gubernatorial, state legislative, and mayoral races are scheduled for November]
-
2️⃣ D.F: “Heels are being dug in, but as people start to get higher Affordable Care Act insurance premium demands the Republicans will feel the pressure and cave.”
-
🗓️ S.F: “I am repeatedly surprised that foreign adversaries of the US do not take these shutdowns as opportunities to undermine the US and its influence in the world.”
-
✍️ P.H: “It doesn't really matter as the reasons for the shutdown are childish. I am saddened that we live in such a dysfunctional country.”