Number of the day

230,000

That’s how many pages on MLK’s assassination the Trump administration just released, unsealing (against some family wishes) a file that’s been locked since 1977.

Let’s dive right in

China just broke ground on what it’s calling the “project of the century”: a $167B hydropower mega-dam in Tibet (aka China’s ‘Xizang Autonomous Region’).

This big Motuo dam aims to:

• Generate ~300TWh per year (more than the UK’s entire consumption)

• Push China closer to its 2060 net zero goal, and

• Jolt its economy awake with another massive infrastructure project.

And ‘jolt’ it did. In the hours since China’s premier (Li Qiang) confirmed the news…

• Shares in the lead contractor (China Energy Engineering) surged 51% 

• Both Power China and Huaxin Cement were up 10% (Shanghai’s daily limit), and 

• Ore, steel, and rolled coil futures all soared. 

Of course, this project is hardly a surprise for Intriguers: we flagged when the dam got its approvals back in December. But Saturday’s soil-turning ceremony with Premier Li is what caught everyone by surprise here: they’re really doing this.

And beyond the dam’s remarkable scale above, it’s turning heads for two big reasons:

1. Tibetan autonomy

The Dalai Lama doesn’t seek Tibetan independence, but rather what he calls a ‘Middle Way Approach’: genuine cultural, religious, and administrative autonomy within China.

So you can see how Beijing building the world’s largest dam in Tibet might be a tad inflammatory. We don’t have to speculate, either: China’s much smaller plan straddling Sichuan province met rare Tibetan protests in February last year because it involves:

• Submerging a valley home to ancient monasteries, and

• Relocating several villages home to thousands of people.

As for this new Motuo dam? It’s 30 times bigger. It’s even three times bigger than China’s famous 1990s-era Three Gorges Dam! And that one stirred ultra-rare dissent in China’s rubber-stamp legislature as authorities involuntarily resettled 1M+ people.

So while details on this new Motuo dam are still scarce, its sheer scale makes some kind of repeat seem inevitable: it’ll plonk a reservoir on the Yarlung Tsangpo River and bore tunnels through Namcha Barwa mountain, both reportedly sacred for Tibetans.

As for how China’s ruling party might handle any unrest? The past examples above have seen mass detentions and beatings. And the world will already be watching, because…

2. The neighbours are worried

If there’s one thing we remember from geography class, it’s that rivers flow. And yes, the Yarlung Tsangpo flows into both India (where it’s called the Brahmaputra) and Bangladesh (where it’s called the Jamuna), watering perhaps 400 million lives and livelihoods via agriculture, fisheries, sanitation, and transportation.

That kind of leverage means both neighbours have already flagged concerns China could weaponise these water flows. And it’d hardly be a first: right after India suspended its own water treaty with Pakistan during their May spat, China started fast-tracking a dam in Pakistan to help loosen India’s grip.

But for now, Beijing is dismissing any concerns, arguing it doesn’t want to benefit at the “expense of its neighbours” — though various neighbours like Bhutan, Nepal, and the South China Sea claimants (plus China’s own annexed territories) might like a quiet word.

Intrigue’s Take

This is a water story as much as it’s a China story:

On the water side, the list of related disputes just keeps getting longer:

• North Korea just unleashed a dam on the South without a heads-up

• Scarcity is (again) straining US-Mexico ties despite their 1944 treaty

• Egypt is still peeved at Ethiopia’s dam on the Blue Nile

• Euphrates flows are still complicating Iraq–Iran ties, and

• Years of drought displaced 1-2 million rural Syrians into urban centres, in turn contributing to Syria’s civil war and triggering migration that’s reshaping Europe.

But while we often focus on the diplomatic solutions, there’s increasingly a technological one, too: advances around ultra-cheap solar and desalination are getting to a point where water scarcity might be more a policy choice than any status quo we must accept.

As for the China angle, here’s another way you might think about all this: it’s arguable this latest mega-project is yet another example of the teleological tension at the heart of the ruling Communist Party — it’s not about any Marxist class vision, but more an endless pursuit of development as a way to justify its own endless rule. Build or die, right?

Sound even smarter:

• This new Motuo dam is due for completion in the 2030s.

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Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

Intrigue’s commodities corner is back

• Oil: Prices dipped on Monday after it became clear the EU’s 18th sanctions package on Russia is unlikely to meaningfully impact supply.  

• Rare earth: China’s rare earths exports to the US increased 660% in June from May reflecting their 90-day truce, though volumes are still below what China was exporting before imposing partial bans in April. 

• Food: Extreme weather events are making groceries more expensive around the globe, according to a study involving the Barcelona Supercomputing Center.

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Diplomat of the day

Ambassadors often keep a low profile on social media, beyond the occasional HQ-approved handshake or milquetoast ministerial press release. Anything more could get you a slap on the wrist at home or unwanted media attention abroad.

That might be why Japan’s ambassador to the UK, Hiroshi Suzuki, is generating such a buzz right now. In fact, he’s turned several Intrigue team-members into full-blown fangirls.

Whether he’s crushing a Guinness, visiting the Titanic museum, or belting out the Welsh anthem, the ambassador always has his Paddington bear in hand, and a smile on his dial.

An Exeter associate professor (David Blagden) made us chuckle with this wry observation: “Who knew that going to a place and publicly extolling its virtues – with seemingly genuine enthusiasm – would make its inhabitants feel positive towards you and your country?!”

Today’s poll

Yesterday’s poll: Do you own any cryptocurrencies?

💰 Yes, here's why… (19%)
🙅 No, here's why… (81%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)

Your two cents:

• 🙅 R.K: “If I don't understand how it works I won't invest or buy it, regardless of what it is.”

• 💰 I.B: “I'm still looking forward to ‘decentralized currency’ actually being used as such. Until then, it's going well as an investment.”

• 💰 M.W: “It’s pretty easy to buy into bitcoin ETFs.”

• 🙅 K.R: “Nope it’s not fungible. Bad actors can, will, and are having a field day. In an era of deregulation and waning supervision, the risks are too high.”

• ✍️ J.M.B: “Bitcoin and only bitcoin.”