Plus: TV show of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Intrigue in paradise |
2️⃣ How a Czech town just saved $2M |
3️⃣ TV show of the day |
Hi Intriguer. I have a friend who was backpacking in remote Bolivia, only to be stunned by a giant, unauthorised picture of herself beaming back down from a highway billboard advertising a local clothing store.
The closest I ever got to that kind of Severance experience was when a buddy in the Cook Islands sent me a brochure advertising local sunset cruises. And emblazoned across the front page of that brochure was, yep, a younger me grinning happily on deck with my better half. We had our honeymoon there a decade earlier, lured by the prospect of seeing beaches widely described as the most beautiful in the world (particularly Aitutaki, a short plane ride from the main island).
Anyway, the last thing I expected while standing on that sun-soaked deck in 2008-era Cook Islands was not only a) ending up an unwilling (and ultra-amateur) model for cruise marketing, but then b) as an ex-diplomat writing to 120k+ friends about how that very same paradise just generated some intriguing global headlines. Let’s get to it.
P.S. – Intrigue’s very own Kristen is at this week’s AI Summit in Paris before heading to the Munich Security Conference with our co-founder John. If you’re at either, please shout out (we’re looking forward to seeing those readers who already reached out!).
Trump warns of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium.
The US president has flagged he’ll impose a 25% steel and aluminium levy on “everybody”, prompting several key allies and trade partners to scramble for an exemption. The dollar rose on the news.
More hostages, prisoners freed.
Hamas released another three Israeli hostages over the weekend, while Israel released 183 Palestinian prisoners. Meanwhile, Israeli negotiators arrived in Qatar to advance the next phase of ceasefire talks.
Baltics switch off Russian grid connection.
The Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania officially switched from the Russian and Belarusian electricity grid to the European market yesterday (Sunday), noting it reduces Russia’s ability to use energy as a tool of blackmail. Btw – don’t miss our candid chat with the high-profile former foreign minister of Lithuania, Gabrielius Landsbergis. It’s online this Wednesday, 10.30am ET — register here!
Sudanese military calls for new government.
The Sudanese military says it’s now close to recapturing the capital Khartoum from a rival paramilitary after two years of civil war. While rivals still control the country’s west, the military is calling for diplomatic support for a new transitional government.
PS — Intrigue’s very own Helen and Jeremy will be appearing live on 2WAY to chat about some of the latest headlines. It’s tonight (Monday), 6pm ET. Join the conversation here!
TOP STORY
Intrigue in paradise: Cook Islands edition
There's trouble a-brewin' in a tiny corner of the South Pacific, so let's get you up to speed.
This one takes us to the Cook Islands: a stunning Polynesian archipelago (pop. 15,000) in ‘free association’ with New Zealand — that means it runs its own affairs and enters treaties, though its citizens are automatically Kiwis with Kiwi passports, Kiwi dollars, and Kiwi support on foreign affairs, defence, disasters, and beyond. Lots of Kiwi (a common term for New Zealanders).
Anyway, the Cooks are now generating headlines because their prime minister, Mark Brown, just touched down in Beijing for a five-day visit to sign a ✌️Comprehensive Strategic Partnership✌️, the text of which he's declined to share with New Zealand.
Why's that a big deal? Let's dive in:
From Brown's perspective, his deal with China has zero security angle like the infamous China-Solomon Islands deal that rocked the region in 2022. Rather, it's just focused on economic development, so there's no need to be running it past the Kiwis, just like how the Kiwis never ran their own China pact past the Cook Islands back in 2014.
And that hints at a broader issue — many Cook Islanders want to assert their own identity a little more, particularly since they reached high income status in 2019. For Brown, that means signing their own deals in their own interests as equals, including (in this case) to diversify away from an over-reliance on tourism, and an over-reliance on NZ.
From New Zealand's perspective, there’s no inherent problem with either Brown objective, but it's the how that's the issue: the Cooks and New Zealand aren’t just friends, they’re family — 100,000 Cook Islanders live in NZ. And yet Brown is now signing a secret deal with someone the main NZ intelligence agency just described as an “illiberal state” that carries out “malicious activity” in New Zealand.
As for Brown claiming it’s just a harmless economic pact? The Kiwis aren't buying that, either. While Brown may insist he sees a valid distinction there, Beijing arguably doesn't — its biggest fisheries and infrastructure firms are mostly state-owned, for example.
So while we can quibble over wording (and don’t you worry, dear Intriguer, there's been quibbling), the Kiwis now see Brown’s move as a major breach of the special NZ-Cooks relationship that turns 60 later this year, noting "this lack of consultation is a matter of significant concern to the New Zealand government." In the Pacific, that's the equivalent of New Zealand raging down a moon-lit beach while someone yells "¡Montoya, por favor!"
As for Beijing's perspective, what does tiny Cook Islands have to offer? Four things.
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First, location — Western intelligence agencies have long warned that China's military wants to establish a foothold somewhere in the Pacific: that'd break Beijing’s sense of encirclement, sever a direct supply route between the US and its allies like Australia, and complicate broader Western military planning.
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Second is fisheries (apparently part of the draft Cooks text) — the entire Cook Islands exclusive economic zone is roughly the size of Mexico. That's alotta fish.
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Third is critical minerals (also apparently in the text) — that sweet sweet seabed is rich in metals like cobalt, which the world is now rushing to secure via parallel races in the energy transition, tech ascendancy, and broader primacy, plus…
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Fourth, there’s China’s ability to convert the economic into the political and strategic — for example, its bases in the South China Sea started out as mere fishermen shelters. And it’s these kinds of military assets (ditto the old US base at Penrhyn atoll in the Cooks) that played a critical role in shaping WW2 and history.
As for the broader region's perspective? The Cook Islands wants to be a pioneer in seabed mining, but that's irritating some neighbours who fear damage to the ocean that sustains them. And second, there’s the broader implications of signing a secret deal with China — you can bet that just like in the Solomons case, some in the Pacific family (and not just Australia) will be quietly voicing their unease about Brown’s trip to Beijing.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
We’re gonna wrap it up with two words of the day here. The first is 'wedging':
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New Zealand feels China is driving a wedge between it and the Cook Islands
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But in response, New Zealand seems to be wedging Brown against his own people, by repeatedly highlighting that the Cook Islanders themselves are also in the dark on this pact, and might end up paying a price, which leads us to…
The second word of the day, which is ‘bluffing’:
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By flying to Beijing without sharing the draft text with New Zealand, Brown has now effectively called NZ's bluff — it’s a gambit that, with China now a willing suitor, New Zealand won't dare impose costs on the Cook Islands.
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But New Zealand's response suggests it might just impose costs on Brown instead — in shooting down a related Brown idea about the Cook Islands issuing its own passports, New Zealand has warned that Cook Islanders could end up losing their Kiwi citizenship and all that this entails. And this seems to be resonating, with social media ablaze, and a protest planned for right after Brown returns from China (encouraged, of course, by his political opponents).
Also worth noting:
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New Zealand’s new-ish government is also in a stoush with Kiribati, which is warming its ties with China while seemingly snubbing New Zealand.
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China recognised the Cook Islands in 1997 and has been an aid partner there since 2001. Meanwhile, the US just formally recognised the Cook Islands in 2023 as part of a broader push to counter China’s regional presence, opening new US embassies in Tonga, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, and elsewhere.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇹🇼 Taiwan: Taipei has thanked Donald Trump and Japan’s Ishiba Shigeru for their joint statement rejecting "any attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by force or coercion”. The addition of "by force or coercion" turned heads this year, as it could theoretically now reject (say) economic coercion from China, or permit (say) Taiwan declaring independence (ie, a change that’s not by force).
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🇮🇹 Italy: An AI scam using the voice of Rome’s defence minister has targeted Italy’s top tycoons, urging them to wire funds to help free Italian journalists locked up abroad. At least one executive apparently transferred ~$1M, falling prey to an elaborate scheme launched just after an Italian journalist was detained in Iran.
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🇮🇳 India: India’s foreign ministry is reportedly in talks to transfer Afghanistan’s Delhi embassy to Taliban control, as India intensifies its direct dealings with the group. The potential switch is facing resistance from some of the diplomats currently managing the mission, who were appointed by Afghanistan’s former Western-backed government.
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🇪🇨 Ecuador: Initial results from Sunday’s election suggest there’ll now be an April runoff between the young conservative heir to a banana fortune (President Daniel Noboa) and the protégé (Luisa Gonzalez) of leftist exiled former leader Rafael Correa. Voters seem particularly focused on the country’s security situation.
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🇪🇬 Egypt: Cairo will host an urgent Arab regional summit on Palestinian issues later this month, according to a statement from Egypt’s foreign ministry. Egypt has been rallying support from regional partners against Donald Trump’s idea of the US taking Gaza and relocating Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan.
FROM OUR FRIENDS
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Join us for an unforgettable, black-tie evening with remarks from the German Ambassador to the US and Condor executives!
EXTRA INTRIGUE
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
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A monkey has caused a nationwide blackout after touching a critical grid transformer in Sri Lanka.
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Italian researchers have concluded that alternating between 100° and 30° (centigrade) water for 32 minutes will get you the perfect boiled egg.
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While we’re in Italy, a local doctor is under investigation for giving his own cat a CAT scan.
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Authorities have fined a man $200 for taking a call on loudspeaker at a train station in France.
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And some helpful beavers in the Czech Republic have apparently built a dam that authorities were planning to build anyway, saving them a cool $2M.
TV SHOW OF THE DAY
Credits: Tahrir.
An intriguing new TV show just dropped: it’s named Tahrir, which is Arabic for liberation, plus the name of Cairo’s central square. And that name suits because the show is set in the Israeli embassy in Cairo during the 2011 Arab Spring, when protestors stormed the compound and set the embassy on fire. The series aired in Israel last week with more episodes due to drop over the next five weeks ahead. It’s unclear when an English subtitled version might hit our screens, but the English title seems to be Embassy Down.
DAILY POLL
What do you think the real issue in this Cook Islands-NZ-China drama is? |
Last Thursday’s poll: Do you think governments should have sovereign wealth funds?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 💰 Yep, they're smart investment vehicles (57%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ ❌ Nope, leave that cash in the pockets of the people (37%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (7%)
Your two cents:
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💰 C.G: “Sovereign wealth funds are a smarter form of protectionism than tariffs and allow countries to invest in their own industries.”
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✍️ T.J: “How does a nation in debt have excess funds?”
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❌ K.N: “Government spending hardly inspires confidence or shows prudence.”
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💰 I.P: “I see it as a good way to make more use out of our tax money. They're going to collect taxes anyways.”
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✍️ X.F: “Setting up a sovereign wealth fund when a sizeable proportion of your population is living in poverty seems immoral.”
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