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IN TODAYโS EDITION
1๏ธโฃ Iran pulls the trigger |
2๏ธโฃ The Intrigue jobs board |
3๏ธโฃ Record of the day |
Hi Intriguer. I first heard about the โIron Domeโ on the news as a teenager. Back then, Iโd naively assumed the dome was an actual apparatus which appeared during times of conflict, not dissimilar to the โProtega Maximaโ charm around Hogwarts in Harry Potter, and I gave it no further thought.
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I was then thoroughly embarrassed to be corrected of this erroneous assumption during my pre-posting security briefing, when I learned that the Iron Dome was actually a sophisticated air defence system with a 90% success rate in intercepting incoming missiles.
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But as Israelโs regional conflicts have intensified, the Iron Dome has started to show (figurative) cracks. For one, adversaries have worked out how to fire weapons that fly below the systemโs interception radars (like anti-tank missiles or UAVs). And two, there may soon be too many missiles fired at the Iron Dome for its system to intercept and take out.
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Weโll dive into the latest in the regionโs evolving conflict in our top story today.
THE HEADLINES
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US VP debate stays policy-heavy
Tim Waltz and JD Vance took to the debate stage last night (Tuesday) for what ended up a relatively civil and policy-heavy conversation, as the two sparred on everything from the economy to the 2020 election results. For more analysis, donโt miss our next edition of Election Intrigue: our weekly briefing on what the US election means for the world.
Oil prices jump on latest Middle East escalation.
The price of Brent crude has jumped 2.6% since Iranโs latest attack on Israel and Netanyahuโs subsequent pledge to retaliate (more on that below). Iran is a member of OPEC and supplies around 4% of global output (~90% of Iranโs oil exports go to China).
French parliament heckles new PMโs first address.
Michel Barnier gave his inaugural speech in parliament yesterday amid heckles and boos. He pledged to increase taxes, bring Franceโs debt under control, and continue support for Ukraine. Barnierโs address was a key early test for his government, which lacks a clear majority in the legislature.
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Defector arrested after trying to defect back to North Korea in stolen bus.
South Korean authorities have arrested a North Korean defector after he rammed a border barricade with a stolen bus while trying to head back north. He had reportedly been trying to return to North Korea after living for more than a decade in the South.
TOP STORY
Iran pulls the trigger, Israel vows revenge
Iranian projectiles above the Israeli city of Ashdod. Credit: Hazem Bader, Getty
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A senior US official set off panic yesterday (Tuesday), telling reporters that the White House believed Iran was preparing an โimminent ballistic missileโ attack on Israel.ย
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And within three hours, Tehran had proved the White House right, just four days after Israel assassinated Iran-backed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, and two months after Israel took out Iran-backed Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
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It felt like an eternity between the White Houseโs heads-up and Iran then pulling the trigger, so hereโs a rough timeline (Tuesday DC time):
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9.00am:ย White House warns of imminent ballistic missile attackย
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9.30am: US embassy directs employees to shelter in place
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10.00am:ย Israeli military spokesperson says Israel is fully prepared
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10.15am: Air sirens sound and Israelis enter bomb shelters
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11.00am: US and Israeli defence chiefs speak via phone
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11.30am:ย Israeli war cabinet meets underground in Jerusalem
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12 noon: Iran launches ~200 missiles (7pm Israel time)
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12.15pm: Iranian missiles enter Israel
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12.30pm:ย Iranโs Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)ย describes the missiles as a response to the โmartyrdomโ of Haniyeh (Hamas), Nasrallah (Hezbollah), and Nilforushan (IRGC commander killed alongside Nasrallah on Friday)
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~1.30-2.00pm:ย Sirens cease, airspace reopens, and Israelis leave shelters
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And thatโs when the next phase of messaging and strategising began.ย
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Tehran messaged out (via its UN mission in New York like last time) that any Israeli reaction would be met with โa subsequent and crushing response.โ
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Israel messaged out that it would indeed be retaliating, with Netanyahu calling Iranโs move a โbig mistakeโ and pledging Iran will โpay for itโ.
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And Washingtonโs afternoon then gave way to a flurry of Pentagon, White House, and State Department briefings, with the main bullet point being that the US will continue to back its Israeli allies:
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Jake Sullivan (the US national security advisor) condemned Iranโs move as โsignificant escalationโ and said Iran will face “severe consequences”ย
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The Pentagonย shared that two US Arleigh Burke-class destroyers in the area had fired interceptors to help defend Israel against the attack, which it assessed was twice the size of Iranโs April attack (after Israel hit Iranโs consulate in Damascus)
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And State declared (yet again) itโs still looking to reach a ceasefire in Gaza in an attempt to defuse the wider regional conflict.
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Capiche?
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Later in the afternoon, the IRGC claimed 90% of Iranโs missiles hit their military targets. And while footage shows multiple Iranian missiles hitting Israeli territory (including near Mossad HQ outside Tel Aviv, and towards two air bases in the Negev), Israel saysย โthe majority of the incoming missiles were interceptedโ.
INTRIGUEโS TAKE
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So what next? Allow us to paint you a picture with three words.
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First, escalation: Iranโs new foreign minister (Abbas Araghchi) has now declared โour action is concludedโ. But Iran tried that same โno backsiesโ line in April, and here we are. Meanwhile, Israel earlier described its strategy as โde-escalation through escalationโ. Ie, it was betting that by ramping up, its enemies might back down. And yet here we are.
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Second, isolation: Iranโs UN mission has tweeted that โregional states and the Zionistsโ supporters are advised to part ways with the regimeโ [Israel], in an attempt to further isolate Israel abroad. But Netanyahu just went straight for the jugular, addressing the Iranian people directly in an attempt to further isolate the regime at home.
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And third, momentum: Netanyahu used this word over the weekend, declaring that โIsrael has momentum; we are winning.โ Meanwhile, his approval numbers are rebounding, his majority in the Knesset is growing (with some hawkish additions), and there are now calls (for example) to โchange the face of the Middle Eastโ.
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The above three words combined, days out from the October 7 anniversary, a month out from the US election, and with a staggering amount of US firepower in the region?
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Itโd be a bold team of ex-diplomats to forecast Netanyahu hitting pause at this point. His officials are already hinting Iranโs oil infrastructure and other โstrategic sitesโ will be next.
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Also worth noting:
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The sole casualty in this latest round appears to have been a Palestinian man hit by Iranian shrapnel in the West Bank. Around the same time, an apparent terrorist attack left at least seven people dead in the Jaffa area of Tel Aviv.
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The Jewish high holiday of Rosh Hashanah begins today (Wednesday) and many Israelis would ordinarily unplug until Yom Kippur ends on October 12.
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There are reports the IRGC didnโt give a heads-up to Iranโs new president until moments before it pulled the trigger. This could just reflect the fact that the IRGC answers directly to Iranโs supreme leader rather than the president; it could also reflect the extent of internal divisions now playing out in Tehran.
A MESSAGE FROM THE DAILY UPSIDE
Join over 1M+ investors who choose clarity over clickbait
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Curious about the latest in finance, economics, and global business? Weโve got the answer: The Daily Upside.
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This fresh, insightful newsletter, created by a team of Wall Street insiders and bankers, delivers deeply valuable insights that go beyond the headlines.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREโฆ
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๐จ๐ณย China: The Chinese Communist Party has celebrated the 75th anniversary of the Peopleโs Republic of China in a notably low-key way, likely seeking to avoid flashy displays while Chinaโs people endure financial strain. Instead, President Xi Jinping gave a speech warning his people that โthe road ahead will not be smoothโ.
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๐ฎ๐ชย Ireland: The local data protection watchdog has fined Meta $100M after the tech giant admitted storing user passwords on non-encrypted systems. Last year, the EU fined Meta over $1B for irregularities in its EU-US data transfers.
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๐ฎ๐ฉย Indonesia: Swiss authorities have ramped up their pressure on the family of president-elect Prabowo Subianto, arguing his younger brother and confidant, tycoon Hashim Djojohadikusumo, owes Switzerland hundreds of millions in back taxes. Itโs a bit awkward for Prabowo, whose inauguration is scheduled for October 20.
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๐ฒ๐ฝย Mexico: Outgoing president Andrรฉs Manuel Lรณpez Obrador has enjoyed a very โon brandโ final day in office: he turned his 1,438th press briefing into a full variety show featuring breakfast, live music, and even raffling off his own watch. The left-leaning leader now retires with high approval ratings, but many citizens still worry at the populist constitutional changes heโs left behind.
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๐จ๐ฉย DR Congo: The M23 rebel group is apparently making $300K a month from its control of the Rubaya area in eastern DRC, which provides 15% of the worldโs tantalum (a rare metal used for certain electronics). The head of the UN mission in Congo has urged the UN Security Council to impose sanctions โon those benefiting from this criminal tradeโ.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
๐ผ The Intrigue job board is back!ย
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Sales & distribution manager @ BBC in Singapore
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Cybersecurity architect @ BNP Paribas in Milan
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Insights manager @ RedBull in Cape Town
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Senior nutrition specialist @ International Rescue Committee in London
RECORD OF THE DAY
Thousands breaking a world record at an Auckland stadium. Credits: Dj Mills/AFP/Getty Images.
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New Zealand has retaken the world record for the biggest haka, after more than 6,000 Kiwis performed the traditional Mฤori custom at a stadium in Auckland over the weekend. We say โretakenโ because France actually yoinked the title back in 2014, much to the displeasure of the Kiwis who cherish the haka as part of their national heritage.
DAILY POLL
Are we near a de-escalation in the Middle East? |
Yesterdayโs poll: What should Ishiba focus on first?
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๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉย ๐ The economy (60%)
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๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ซ An ‘Asian NATO’ (26%)
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๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ค Mending domestic political ties (13%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Other (Write in!) (2%)
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Your two cents:
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๐ย E.K.H: โIt’s hard to do anything big abroad without shoring up support at home first, and that goes straight through people’s pocketbooks.โ
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๐ซย E.R.H: โThe biggest threat to any economy is rising geopolitical tensions. The ball has been rolling for a while in China – Japan will need to be prepared for when China moves.โ
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๐คย D.L: โThe LDP is facing unprecedented criticism; Ishiba needs to make sure the party is strong internally so that it can keep its influence in the Diet (Japanโs parliament) and elsewhere.โ
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โ๏ธ M.S.M: โThe ageing population is a cliff due to its low birth rate. Japan needs more incentives on genuine family friendly policies.โ