Hi Intriguer. Can you guess what the hottest commodity of the year is right now? It’s not cobalt, oil, or even gold. It’s cocoa, the key chocolate input, which has more than doubled in price already this year.

A key driver has been poor harvests out of West Africa, driven by unusual weather, plant diseases, and underinvestment in a region that barely gets 5% of the $120B sector’s profits despite producing two thirds of its cocoa.

The result is a massive price spike that’s somehow both a shock, yet also… entirely foreseeable (we called it on 5 January).

Today’s briefing leads with another shock in West Africa, but it’s one that very few will have seen coming: an obscure opposition figure in Senegal has somehow just gone from prison to president-elect in 11 days.

– Jeremy Dicker, Managing Editor

PS – We’ll be taking a break this Friday 29 March and Monday 1 April, but will be back in your inbox from Tuesday 2 April.

TODAY’S NEWS

Israel recalls negotiators. Israel has recalled its negotiating team from Doha after claiming ceasefire talks with Hamas had reached a “dead end”. Mediators Qatar and Egypt had been pushing for a six-week truce in exchange for the release of 40 Israeli hostages. Hamas is reportedly pushing for a permanent withdrawal of Israeli forces and for all displaced Gazans to be allowed back north.

Xi meets US CEOs. Several US CEOs have extended their stay in China after receiving a last-minute invite to meet President Xi Jinping today (Wednesday), as Beijing seeks to revive foreign investor confidence. The US executives were in the country to attend the China Development Forum, a key business summit. In a nod to investor concerns, China has also announced it’s relaxing rules on cross-border data flows.

The Japanese yen slides. Expectations of an imminent intervention rose after the Japanese currency slid to a 34-year low against the US dollar earlier today. There are fewer remaining options to prop the yen back up, after the Bank of Japan lifted interest rates out of negative territory last week.

Russia struggles collecting oil payments. Russian oil firms are facing long payment delays after banks in China, Turkey, and the UAE raised their sanctions compliance requirements in recent weeks, according to Reuters. The resulting erratic payments are complicating the Kremlin’s revenue efforts.

Sensitive files disappear from Europol HQ. A cache of highly sensitive files containing the personal information of top European law enforcement executives went missing last summer, triggering an agency-wide crisis. Some of the files were recovered after a citizen found them abandoned in a public space.

TOP STORY

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

We’ll leave the fine people of Senegal to decide who they want in the presidential palace, but this election matters for the rest of us, too.

First, the narrative around Senegal has been one of ‘democratic decline’, but this result suggests the country’s institutions have passed another stress test.

And it’s not just faceless ‘institutions’ at work – people got us here, including Sonko’s decision to hand over his candidacy; Sall’s decision to pardon the prisoners; and various candidates’ decisions to quickly concede defeat. Democracy still comes down to people, and their decisions matter in a region that’s seen eight coups since 2020.

Second, many of the region’s current post-coup regimes have pivoted away from the West, seeking backing from more sympathetic, authoritarian powers. It’s still early days, but another democratic transition in Senegal will likely be a relief for France, which has one of its last regional bases there.

Third, Senegal’s recent instability has been one factor driving more irregular migration to Europe. If Faye can stabilise things and start addressing the root causes, folks will have more reasons to stay.

And finally, Faye is an avowed pan-Africanist – ie, he sees Africa’s future rooted in more collaboration across the continent. There’s already an African Continental Free Trade Area underway, and more regional governments are removing visa requirements for African nationals. It’ll be interesting to see what Faye brings to that momentum.

Also worth noting:

• Senegal became independent from France in 1960. Since then, it’s had three peaceful transitions of power (1980, 2000, and 2012). It’s had political crises, but not a coup.

• Faye has two wives (common in Senegal). He named one of his sons Ousmane after his friend and key mentor above, Ousmane Sonko.

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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

1. 🇨🇳 China: A court in central Hubei province has handed down a life sentence to the former head of China’s football association for taking bribes worth $11M. China’s soccer fans have long blamed corruption for the national team’s chronic underperformance. 

2. 🇷🇺 Russia: A Moscow court has extended the pre-trial detention on spying charges of Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reporter, Evan Gershkovich. This Friday will be a year since he was detained while reporting from Yekaterinburg (Evan, the WSJ, and the US deny he’s a spy).

3. 🇹🇴 Tonga: Crown Prince Tupouto'a 'Ulukalala could soon be appointed foreign and defence minister, after his father (King Tupou VI) withdrew support for the previous office-holders. Critics have branded the king’s involvement in government affairs a return to the “dark ages” for the island kingdom.

4. 🇻🇪 Venezuela: The government has allowed the main opposition coalition to register a provisional candidate after it was initially blocked by suspicious tech issues. Pro-government authorities banned the previous opposition candidate, and issued arrest warrants for her staffers last week.

5. 🇹🇬 Togo: Lawmakers have voted to shift from a presidential to a parliamentary system after adopting a new constitution that’ll see parliament (rather than the public) elect the president. The amendment passed almost unanimously in a legislature that has little presence from the opposition, which boycotted the last elections.

EXTRA INTRIGUE

Here’s what we’re reading from the business world

• Binance crypto boss escapes custody with smuggled passport

• Korean conglomerate LG to invest $74 billion in AI, biotech, cleantech and other growth areas

• Adam Neumann makes conditional offer to regain control of WeWork

• Truth Social stock price surges on first day of trading, increasing Trump’s fortune

• Visa and Mastercard to lower swipe fees in settlement that could save merchants $30 billion

CHART OF THE DAY

iPhone shipments to China fell by 33% in February from a year earlier, despite a rare round of discounts. That’s a tad concerning for Apple, which sees China as its top foreign market. There are two main factors at play here: a broader downward trend in China’s smartphone market, and more competition from local giant, Huawei. Officials have also been restricting the use of foreign phones (such as the iPhone) in some government agencies and state-owned enterprises.

DAILY POLL

Yesterday’s poll: Do you think the UN Security Council resolution will bring about tangible change in Gaza?

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇺🇳 Yes, Israel has too much to lose in defying the UNSC (7%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🕊️ Yes, Hamas can't keep the hostages forever (3%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⚔️ No, there's no enforcement mechanism (88%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)

Your two cents:

• ⚔️ G: “They shall write another stern letter…”

• ✍️ J.M.W: “Yes, but it will be very slow and not in time for Ramadan (so really, no). The resolution really marks slow movement in the direction of a ceasefire at some future point as Israel's allies become more like lukewarm supporters.”