But first… number of the day

Two 

That’s how many ISIS camps in northwest Nigeria the US reportedly targeted with Tomahawk missiles on Christmas Day, in a joint operation announced by President Trump. We explored Nigeria’s security situation just last month.

They went nuclear

Intriguers will know our spooked world is now scrambling for new ways to feel secure.

The result is bits of ‘security architecture’ (deals, treaties, pledges) popping up like mushrooms after rain. Those pacts aren’t just realigning our ties, but also ushering in a new era of massive government spending across multiple sectors.

So it makes sense to understand those mushrooms!

One of the most intriguing is the Australia-UK-US defence tech pact known as AUKUS, realistically (if not openly) designed to counter an increasingly assertive China — think Taiwan threats, vast claims across the South China Sea, and historic military ramp-up.

These three allies are already tight — they are (with Canada and New Zealand) part of the ‘Five Eyes’ intel network, for example. But AUKUS, dropped via a shock September announcement in 2021, aims to level that up in two main ways (known sexily as ‘pillars’):

• The first involves the US and UK helping Australia get nuclear-powered (not armed) subs, and

• The second is effectively an ‘other’ basket of defence tech, pledging to work together under the waves, on quantum, AI, cyber, hypersonics, and beyond.

But… why AUKUS?

While the North Atlantic has NATO, there’s nothing similar in the Indo-Pacific — sure, there’s now a defence love triangle between China, Russia, and North Korea, but the mere idea of an Asian NATO is enough to rattle those (like China) who’d be on the outer.

So instead, there are the various US alliances (🇯🇵, 🇰🇷, 🇵🇭), plus the low-profile Five Power Defence Arrangements (🇬🇧, 🇦🇺, 🇳🇿, 🇲🇾, 🇸🇬), and looser groups like the Quad (🇺🇸, 🇦🇺, 🇯🇵, 🇮🇳). It’s all a little like having too many WhatsApp groups and forgetting who’s in which one.

“Bits of ‘security architecture’ (deals, treaties, pledges) are popping up like mushrooms after rain.”

And while Australia, the UK, and the US are tight, they each have their own AUKUS aims.

For the US, AUKUS is…

• a force-multiplier that helps sustain a favourable balance of power in Asia

• an investment (including Australian dollaridoos) in reviving US shipbuilding, and

• part of a broader ‘latticework’ to tie US allies closer in countering China.

For the UK, AUKUS is…

• a big step in its vaunted ‘tilt’ to defend Indo-Pacific trade, security, and values

• an investment (including Australian dollaridoos) in UK shipbuilding, and

• that in turn bolsters its posture against Europe’s most immediate threat (Russia).

And for Australia, AUKUS means…

• a big step up in its own defence capabilities

• more access to allied defence tech, investment, and procurement, and

• a clearer signal of its resolve and alliances after a decade of wobbly ties with China.

The common — if unstated — thread linking each of these allies through AUKUS is China.

So in our next special edition (hitting inboxes on Tuesday December 30th), we’ll look at how that’s shaping strategy in the region, and some of the big AUKUS challenges ahead.

Until then, enjoy your leftovers / chestnuts / chardonnay / turtlenecks / reindeer hugs / crustaceans.