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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ The geopolitics of Taylor Swift |
2️⃣ Why the UAE just banned Eswatini ships |
3️⃣ Phone of the day |
Hi Intriguer. I’m kind of astounded that Intrigue has yet to feature a Taylor Swift top story in this day and age — or Era, if you will (sorry). This is especially surprising given how much of the world is now divided between ‘Swifties’ and non-Swifties.
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Taylor Swift is an economic powerhouse. Her rise to global stardom has got media outlets advertising for dedicated Taylor Swift reporters, Harvard courses teaching about ‘Taylor Swift and Her World’, and conspiracy theorists labelling her a CIA psy-op.
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Her fans are so dedicated that some (including folks I know) have spent thousands to attend multiple shows and even follow her tour to Europe. Given all this hoo-ha, I guess it was only a matter of time before her shows also attracted some unwanted attention, as we’ll see in today’s top story.
THE HEADLINES
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Zelensky speaks as Ukrainian troops push further into Russia.
Without directly referencing Ukraine’s ongoing counter-offensive into Russian territory, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Russia “should feel what it has done”. Details are still hazy, but Ukrainian troops may now have seized in three days an area in Russia’s Kursk region that’s roughly equivalent (350 sq km) to what Russia just spent three months capturing in Ukraine’s east.
US, Qatar and Egypt push for renewed ceasefire negotiations.
The three have called on Israel and Hamas to resume ceasefire talks on 15 August as speculation continues to swirl around a possible Iranian response to last week’s Israeli assassination of the top Hamas leader. In a joint statement, the US, Qatari, and Egyptian leaders have said they’re “prepared to present a final bridging proposal”. Israel has agreed to attend, while Hamas has yet to comment.
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Maduro blocks Twitter.
Venezuelan autocrat Nicolás Maduro has signed a decree blocking Twitter/X for 10 days, after accusing owner Elon Musk of inciting “hatred, fascism, [and] civil war“. Musk has labelled Maduro a “dictator” and a “clown”, and Venezuela’s opposition has used Twitter to present evidence that Maduro stole last month’s elections.
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Harris and Trump agree to September debate.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have agreed to face off for a presidential debate on 10 September on ABC, with Trump saying he’s also agreed to two additional debates next month.
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China has a new ‘richest man’.
Colin Huang, who founded e-commerce giant Temu, has become China’s richest man according to Bloomberg, surpassing water bottle tycoon Zhong Shanshan. Huang’s fortunes are estimated at around $48.6B.
TOP STORY
The geopolitics of a foiled attack on Swifties
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It’s the kind of headline that makes you want to scream “why?” into the void: Taylor Swift’s three sold-out Vienna shows were abruptly cancelled yesterday (Thursday) after authorities foiled a terrorist attack targeting the star’s Eras Tour.
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The decision — while sensible — has left fans shaken, local businesses bracing, and the broader touring industry spooked. But Swifties still managed to make the most of it, meeting in the streets of Vienna to swap bracelets, sing her tunes, and even get engaged.
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So what happened, and what does it mean? Please forgive us, but we owe it to you, dear Intriguer, to answer that question with the help of Taylor Swift’s lyrics:
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Austrian authorities, apparently with a heads-up from US intelligence, say they uncovered a plot by a trio of teenagers (19, 17, and 15) who were radicalised online. Police apparently found explosives, detonators, and a stash of ISIS propaganda at the home of the 19-year-old ringleader, who’d ominously just quit his job after hinting at “something big”.
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The foiled attack is a reminder that, despite losing territory in Syria and Iraq, ISIS can still do damage, whether in Paris (2015), Manchester (2017), Iran (January), or Moscow (May). These big attacks drive recruitment, fundraising, and cred among rival jihadis, while aiming to instil fear among ‘enemy’ societies.
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In Austria alone, authorities have thwarted at least five ISIS plots since last June. ISIS channels have also made threats against the Euro 2024 across Germany, the Olympics in Paris, and the Cricket World Cup in the US, while name-dropping various other Western cities as being “next?”
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It’s all prompted (for example) the FBI director to warn that “the potential for a coordinated attack” on US soil was “increasingly concerning”, while Australia just upped its own terrorist alert to “probable”.
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Taylor’s shows aren’t just concerts; they’re cash machines for every city and country lucky enough to host one. To paint you a little picture, here are just some of our favourite examples:
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Last year’s US leg had a big enough economic impact to get a mention in the Fed’s ‘beige book’ (its periodic review of economic conditions)
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The Australian tour drove so much demand from Swifties next door in New Zealand, the national Kiwi carrier had to add surge capacity
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Swift’s exclusive Singapore leg triggered a spat with other countries in the region who missed out, and
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Given the stakes for each host, the prime minister of Canada personally lobbied Swift to add extra stops (which she then did).
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So there’s real cash at play here, and unwinding a three-night stop in Vienna is going to hurt: restaurants, hotels, transport, merch, side-trips, plus Austria’s broader effort to brand itself as the place to be.
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This was ultimately a close call, with suspects hauled in only hours before the venue doors were scheduled to open.
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But the system worked, right? Two decades on from the intelligence failures around the US invasion of Iraq, we’re seeing Western spooks remind wary societies of their worth in some very high-profile ways – whether it’s them repeatedly, publicly, and accurately foreshadowing Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, or saving Swiftie lives in Vienna today.
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Oh, and a bonus hopeful note for the weekend? The London mayor says Swift’s Wembley shows will proceed on August 15th to 20th as planned, while Swift’s team reportedly says “she wants to try to return to Vienna as soon as possible”.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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There are two bigger questions we want to touch on here.
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First, a decade or two ago, the big debate in diplomacy and security circles was whether governments were focusing too much on the security challenges posed by terrorism, at the expense of preparing for the strategic challenges posed by the rise of China.
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At the risk of casually summarising decades of debate in a single word, the overall answer was ‘yes’. But it was always going to be a careful re-balance, and this week’s events are a reminder of what’s at stake.
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The second question is around whether, given how ISIS openly targets not just the West but also the West’s rivals like Iran and Russia, could there be some rare scope for cooperation in response? And yes, there’s reason to be hopeful when you look at the strange bedfellows making up the 87-member anti-ISIS coalition.
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But also… maybe not? US intelligence gave a heads-up to both Iran and Russia about ISIS plots earlier this year, but both rivals appear to have shrugged the US off, with catastrophic results.
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So to us, it’s all a reminder of a) how strong the centrifugal forces are currently pulling our world into opposing camps, and b) how those rival camps still see more of a threat in each other than in any group like ISIS.
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Also worth noting:
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This is only the third time Swift has cancelled a concert. The first was in 2014 when her show in Thailand was cancelled due to a coup. The second was earlier this year after a fan died during a Swift concert.
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Following the Hamas October 7th attacks, ISIS called instead for attacks on the Arab states it says are acting as Israel’s “fortresses and walls”. It then followed up this January with a call for its followers to (again) carry out a global attack campaign.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇯🇵 Japan: Ambassadors from the US, the UK, and other G7 members have said they’ll send lower-level representatives to today’s (Friday’s) atomic bombing memorial service in Nagasaki, because local authorities declined to invite the Israeli ambassador. Tokyo says the decision to exclude Israel was motivated by security concerns.
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🇩🇰 Denmark: Authorities have sentenced a Polish man to four months in prison after he punched Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in the shoulder while she was walking through Copenhagen in June. The man, who pleaded not guilty, says he was too drunk to remember the incident, which raised concerns about the safety of politicians in Denmark.
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🇧🇩 Bangladesh: Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has now been sworn in as the leader of Bangladesh’s interim government, four days after protesters forced long-time leader Sheikh Hasina to resign and flee in a chopper. Yunus, who’d been a vocal critic of Hasina, congratulated the protesters for giving Bangladesh “a second independence”.
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🇧🇷 Brazil: Deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest has fallen to its lowest levels since at least 2016, according to government satellite data. Still, the figures suggest the Amazon has lost an area the size of Rhode Island to deforestation over the past 12 months.
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🇦🇪 UAE: The UAE has banned Eswatini-flagged ships from docking in its ports due to concerns they’re being used to ship sanctioned Russian oil. The UAE has also slapped bans on Albania, Cameroon, and Tonga-flagged ships.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Some weekend recommendations from team Intrigue
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Read: Learn how Amazon is arguably losing out on billions by ignoring the demand for quick-commerce in India.
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Listen: Retrace the story of how Sergey Brin transformed a small tech startup into the colossus Google is today, with a couple of epic plane parties along the way.
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Watch: Recap the biggest geopolitical events of the week with our very own co-founder John Fowler, and Jacob Shapiro from Cognitive Investments. This week they touched on the Bangladesh protests, the UK riots, and the ongoing Ukrainian counter-attack back into Russia.
PHONE OF THE DAY
Credits: Samsung.
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Olympic athletes may be sleeping on cardboard beds, but they get some pretty sweet goody bags. In addition to skincare products and branded water bottles, each participant also gets a specially designed Olympic Samsung Z Flip6 (think a hybrid between a modern touchscreen and a vintage flip phone).
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There’s just one problem: South Korean officials have coyly pointed out that the phones – if distributed to the North Korean team – would technically violate UN sanctions against the supply to North Korea of “all industrial machinery.”
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So the International Olympic Committee has confirmed the North Koreans didn’t get those sweet sweet Samsung phones after all. Unnnnnnnlucky.
FRIDAY QUIZ
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We love a good idiom here at International Intrigue. Can you guess what these foreign sayings mean in English?
Draw legs on a snake (from Chinese) |
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Licking your palm (from Turkish) |
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I know my chickens (from Italian) |
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