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Todayโs briefing: |
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Sponsored by: |
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Good morning Intriguer. Thereโs an olโ saying that “he who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal.” It reflects the fact that frontrunners donโt always emerge as pope โ in fact, thatโs happened just twice in the last 60 years.
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Itโs maybe a reminder that weโre human, and weโre prone to the kinds of evolving alliances, philosophies, and surprises weโre bound to see this week, as the Vaticanโs conclave gathers to elect the next pope โ our briefing for today.

Number of the day
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6ย
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Thatโs the number of votes by which Friedrich Merz just failed to become Germanyโs next chancellor, in a historic first (todayโs parliamentary ballot was expected to run smoothly). Itโs unclear who defected from his camp. The Bundestag now has 14 days to elect a candidate with an absolute majority: Merz can try again, but so can others.
Whoโll be the next pope?

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As the sun rises over the Eternal City tomorrow (Wednesday), 133 cardinals from 71 countries will shuffle into the Michelangelo-painted Sistine Chapel to elect the next pope.
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Theyโll be cut off from the outside, voting once in the afternoon of 7 May and then twice each morning and afternoon thereafter until a two-thirds majority elects the next pope.
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The whole thing can last days (shout-out to the two cardinals whoโve already called in sick), but statistically speaking, weย should have a new pope this week.ย
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So, who are the front-runners to lead the worldโs smallest sovereign state and largest single religious institution? Letโs run a quick breakdown by region:
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Europeย
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The โOld Continentโ is home to the largest number of eligible cardinals, dubbed โpapabileโ (Italian for โpope-ableโ). And while the Vatican has the worldโs highest per-capita number of Bloomberg terminals, theyโre eligible more in the โtheologicalโ and โleadershipโ sense:
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Pietro Parolin:ย heโs secretary of state (second in charge), so an obvious frontrunner, though this has its downsides (ask Hillary). Heโs also copped flak for โselling outโ Chinaโs Catholics via the 2018 deal that empowered the Communist Party to appoint local bishops (with the pope relegated to a veto).
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Pierbattista Pizzaballa:ย relatively young at 60, he was always destined for buzz with a name like that. Say it out loud, and youโll be transported back to that time you fell in love while strolling Cinque Terre. Fluent in Hebrew (though not Arabic), heโs Patriarch of Jerusalem and has focused on interfaith dialogue, the plight of Christians, and de-escalation (he offered to swap himself for the Hamas hostages).
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Africaย
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A New York archbishop once quipped he needed an atlas every time Pope Francis appointed a new cardinal, including firsts in places like Cape Verde.ย
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Fridolin Ambongo Besungu is the continentโs frontrunner, serving as archbishop of Kinshasa (Congo) and gaining a global profile for his fierce criticism of corruption and mining, while maintaining a traditional streak on social issues.
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One way or another, heโs seen as a kingmaker (14% of the votes now hail from Africa).
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Asiaย
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Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle has his own YouTube show plus relatively youthful vibes, earning the โAsian Francisโ nickname for his modern approach, though this mightโve alienated some of the more old-school types heโll need to win over.
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And yes, there are also โpapabilesโ from the Americas and Oceania, but none seem to be gaining any traction. If one ends up pope, Intrigue will buy you a drink some time.
Intrigueโs Take
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If you havenโt seen the films Two Popes or Conclave, they get the coveted Intrigue rubber stamp of approval, which is something we just made up. Theyโre surprisingly thoughtful and at times profound films exploring themes the West too often avoids.
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But why cover any of this? Weโll answer that with some quotes from the films themselves:
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โTruth may be vital, but without love, it is unbearableโ (Two Popes)
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A Vatican diplomat once quipped that while most embassies focus on interests, the Vaticanโs nunciatures (embassies) focus on values (notwithstanding the churchโs sins). That means they pop up in some surprising places, and can carry some surprising influence.
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โThey say eavesdroppers can use lasers to read the vibrations of the glassโ (Conclave)
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This line is a passing nod to the counterespionage measures the Vatican (like every other state) must take to keep its deliberations secret. And yes, you can bet spooks will track this process closely for any insight into how this ancient body might harm their interests.
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โCertainty is the great enemy of unityโ (Conclave)
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As social, political, and technological forces accelerate, we see a world thatโs in many ways getting less certain, not more. And thatโll grant the Vatican (and other traditional sources of influence) more influence, not less.
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Sound even smarter:
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Other names doing the rounds include Matteo Zuppi (a top Vatican diplomat), Hungaryโs Peter Erdo (who famously defied the Soviets), and Franceโs Jean-Marc Aveline (a media favourite due to his striking resemblance to a beloved ex-pope).
Todayโs newsletter is sponsored by BOXABL.
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Most car factories like Ford or Tesla reportedly build one car per minute. Isnโt it time we do that for houses? BOXABL believes they have the potential to disrupt a massive and outdated trillion dollar building construction market.
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Following an initial prototype order from SpaceX as well as an order for 156 homes from the DoD, BOXABL has made substantial strides in streamlining their assembly line automated manufacturing and order process. They just reserved the ticker symbol BXBL on Nasdaq*
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Invest now before itโs too late!
Meanwhile, elsewhereโฆ

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๐บ๐ธย UNITED STATES – OpenAI ditches โfor-profitโ plans. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment:ย Itโs unclear whether thisโll satisfy OpenAIโs newest investors, whoโd conditioned their billions on a successful restructuring. |
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๐ฎ๐ฑย ISRAEL – Security cabinet backs plan to capture Gaza. |
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๐จ๐ณย CHINA – Firms โwashingโ their exports to dodge US tariffs. p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment:ย As with anything, tax too high and a black market emerges. You need cooperation from local authorities, but they might not be in a cooperating mood. |
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๐ฐ๐ทย SOUTH KOREA –ย Conservative party picks candidate.ย p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: They can pick who they like, but itโs the oppositionโs popular and populist-lite Lee Jae-myung who looks set to inherit Koreaโs polarised politics and economy. |
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๐ท๐ดย ROMANIAย –ย Populist-right wins first round.ย p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } Comment: The Ukraine-sceptic Simion might soon be ruling a NATO ally, rattling neighbouring Ukraine (which has banned him). This is partly the result of an electoral system that splits the centre, but also the result of a political class thatโs lost credibility. |
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๐ฎ๐ฉย INDONESIA – Regulators halt Sam Altmanโs biometric ID project.ย |
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๐บ๐ธ USA – Trump unveils 100% movie tariffs. |
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๐ฆ๐ชย UAE – Top UN court dismisses Sudan case against UAE.ย p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; } The ICJโs dismissal of Sudanโs genocide case was due to a technical UAE carveout, rather than any ruling on the merits. Sudan argues the Emiratis are breaching the genocide convention by arming the notorious RSF paramilitary. (AfricaNews)ย |
Extra Intrigue
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What people around the world are googling:
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Folks in ๐ต๐ชย Peru looked up โestado de sitioโ (state of emergency) after a regional government sounded the alarm over the murder of 13 kidnapped miners.
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๐ฆ๐บย Aussies googled New Yorkโs famous โMet Galaโ to follow their favourite red carpet looks.
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And ๐ฉ๐ชย Germanย racecar fans searched for โJochen Massโ after news broke that the nationโs F1 hero has passed away, aged 78.
From our friends
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Want to get smarter about financial markets? Join 200,000 investors who get Opening Bell Daily in their inbox โ itโs packed with Wall Street data and analysis you wonโt find anywhere else. Subscribe free.
Airport of the day

Credits: Wellington Airport
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Wellington Airport features some pretty rad Lord of the Rings-inspired giant eagles welcoming weary travellers to Middle Earth New Zealand. But word is theyโll soon be replaced with a new mystery exhibit. Maybe a huge black tower with a fiery eye?!
Todayโs poll
What do you think has the most influence on the papal election? |
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Yesterdayโs poll: Why do you think Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on so much cash right now?
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๐ฒ Stocks are over-priced (30%)
๐ฅ The world is too volatile (68%)
โ๏ธ Other (write in!) (2%)
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Your two cents:
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๐ฅ M.C: โIt seems like the economic instability worldwide might warrant a little caution. Rules are being changed in unnerving ways.โ
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๐ฒย E: โHe’s been sitting on this cash for years now so that tells me it’s more an issue of overpriced stocks rather than just geopolitics.โ
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โ๏ธ R.R: โHeโs waiting for a recession to make stocks a bargain. Itโs one of his strategies. And he has been very successful.โ
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โ๏ธ A.C: โHe’s about to retire, and he wants his successor to make the next investment decision.โ