Number of the day

7.2 million 

That’s the number of unemployed workers in the US, surpassing job openings for the first time since 2021, according to Wednesday’s official figures. The weaker-than-expected data triggered an initial global bond sell-off.

Don’t rain on my parade

With the dust now settled after Xi Jinping’s big Victory Day parade, it’s time to ask… what exactly was that? A big flex aimed at the US? A rallying cry for the broader Global South? A Party pump-up for weary audiences watching back home?

Well here are the three things you should know. 

1. Xi’s big speech. 

President Xi’s big speech had three big aims:

• First, by describing China’s war against Imperial Japan as its “first complete victory against foreign aggression in modern times”, Xi sought to frame his Party as the guardian of China’s sovereignty (see the debate below)

• Second, by then describing that victory as China’s “major contribution to the salvation of human civilization and the defense of world peace”, Xi sought to frame his country as a guardian of the world’s progress and order, and…

• Third, by then describing today as a “choice of peace or war, dialogue or confrontation, win-win or zero-sum”, Xi sought to frame this moment as a choice between two models: the West’s declining chaos or the East’s rising order.

Then there’s the backdrop of…

2. Weapons galore. 

Xi’s parades are known for big reveals, and this week’s new toys included giant shipborne laser defences, robot wolves, drones, and China’s full nuclear triad (air, land and sea-launch). There were also crowd fave missiles like the ‘Dongfeng 26D’ (aka ‘Guam Killer’), the hypersonic YJ-21 (aka ‘carrier killer’), plus a ‘Dongfeng-5C’ (capable of hitting the US).

The message? It was a home-made and modernised flex to warn that China can now hit targets near and far, so maybe the US and its allies should take a step back (then another).

For everyone else, it aimed to project a sense of inevitability (Xi used the term “unstoppable”) — ie, time to get with the program.

As for who got to watch all these toys rumble past…?

3. The guest list. 

If parades are theatre, then maybe the VIP balcony was the real stage here: Xi stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Russia’s Putin and North Korea’s Kim, while others from Iran, Cuba, Myanmar, Malaysia, Zimbabwe, and beyond clapped along.

That’s a pretty typical guest list for anyone chafing against Brussels and Washington.

Serbia’s Vucic was also there, as was Slovakia’s Fico (the only NATO/EU leader, though others sent lower-level reps). They raised eyebrows, but this is still very on-brand for them both, as Beijing/Moscow-friendly nationalists happy to buck consensus when it suits.

A few other Western-aligned ex-leaders also turned up from New Zealand, Belgium, Greece, and even Japan (Hatoyama), though they maintained a pretty low profile: this kind of presence arguably maintains dialogue without endorsing the militarism or despots.

So what’s Xi’s overall message? He’s really positioning himself and his China as the head of a coalition of states pushing back on a US-led world order.

Intrigue’s Take

It’s been fascinating to watch the role of history at play here. Modern China traditionally de-emphasised WWII in favour of the Communist Party’s preferred revolutionary legitimacy and the 1949 founding of today’s People’s Republic. And of course, that 1949 date hints at why: Xi’s China didn’t even exist until four years after WWII ended.

• Still, the Communists continue to argue they were the “mainstay” or “backbone” of China’s resistance against Imperial Japan all along, whereas…

• The Nationalists (in charge before the Communists pushed them out to Taiwan) say Chairman Mao ran a secret 70-20-10 Strategy, putting 70% into expanding Communist control, 20% into fighting fellow Chinese (the ruling Nationalists), and just 10% into limited guerrilla resistance against the Japanese occupiers.

And historical reality matches the Nationalist version more. Heck, Mao himself acknowledged this in response to Japan’s 1972 apology, quipping if it wasn’t for Japan’s invasion, China’s Communists would still be hiding up in the hills somewhere.

And to be clear, this isn’t about questioning China’s role in WWII — just the role claimed by Xi’s Communists.

So… who cares? Judging by Xi’s decision to host China’s first Victory Day parade a decade ago, and his second iteration just this week… Xi cares! Why?

There could be an entire series of Intrigue briefings on this, but here’s one:

As China’s economic miracle slows and a key pillar of the Party’s legitimacy fades (‘only we can deliver growth’), Xi has to lean more into his Party’s claims to historical legitimacy (‘only we could’ve ended China’s century of humiliation’).

Sound even smarter:

• In a repeat of Xi’s 2015 Victory Day announcement, Xi announced a 300,000 reduction in the size of the People’s Liberation Army. It’s again about trimming administrative fat and re-investing savings into China’s military modernisation.

• Kim’s attendance from North Korea was also interesting, his first trip abroad since 2019 and his first-ever appearance at (subject to your definition) a multilateral event rather than just a one-on-one. He likely wants more economic assistance from China, and might’ve also been signalling his daughter as his heir apparent (she was along for the ride).

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

Meanwhile, in other worlds

• Fashion: China’s fast fashion giant Shein has launched an investigation after someone used the likeness of Luigi Mangione (standing trial for the NYC murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson) to market a shirt. 

• Music: Radiohead will return to the stage this year in the British group’s first tour since 2018. 

• Society: Organisers have cancelled a multi-million dollar luxury polar cruise for 150 Russian elites after the FBI arrested a Russian crypto-tycoon involved in the enterprise, over allegations he helped smuggle US tech to Russia.

Postage stamp of the day

You think you’ve seen a postage stamp, but then Bhutan comes along in 1973 and issues one that’s also a fully playable record!

Yeah, you read that right. You could either peel the paper off and affix it to that postcard you promised your parents. Or you could pop it onto your vinyl player for a taste of Bhutanese folk songs. 

Marvellous.

Today’s poll

Yesterday’s poll: Do you think we're near peak oil?

🛢️ No way – the IEA is often wrong (64%)
☀️ Yep – solar growth is historic (33%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)

Your two cents:

• 🛢️ Q.B.D: “Growing energy demand (rising population, developing economies, data centres) is likely to require the full output of both fossil-fuel and renewable energy sources.”

• ☀️ J.G: “Most of the world is turning to electrification. Peak Oil is going to come from the demand side and not the supply side. And soon.”

• ✍️ S.L: “It depends on public political will. Many countries' societies need to start taking the climate crisis much more seriously for oil demand to actually flatten out by 2030.”