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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Why Macron just flew to the Pacific |
2️⃣ The hottest new app in Morocco |
3️⃣ Meme of the day |
Hi Intriguer.
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Election dates are fixed in many countries, but others have a bit of latitude in picking the timing. And that leads to some interesting choices.
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For example, the pundits are still analysing why the British prime minister just called a snap election for July 4th, but it’s probably a mix of scheduling plus this week’s blip of positive economic data (falling inflation).
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Later in July, Venezuela’s regime has picked the 28th for its next election – that’s the birthday of its late dictator, Hugo Chavez. Oh, and it announced those elections back on March 5, the anniversary of Chavez’s death. Why? The country’s current strongman is both superstitious and a Chavez protégé.
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As for today? We’re headed to France’s key territory in the Pacific, New Caledonia, where President Macron has made a surprise visit in an attempt to douse historic unrest.
THE HEADLINES
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UK accuses China of providing lethal aid to Russia.
British Defence Minister Grant Shapps has claimed China is providing Russia “lethal aid” for use in Ukraine. But US national security advisor Jake Sullivan has voiced surprise, saying “we have not seen that to date”. Meanwhile, Russian troops are advancing on several fronts, with reports their current offensive has now captured more territory than Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year.
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China holds drills near Taiwan as “punishment”.
China has launched military drills simulating attacks on Taiwan in what it says is “punishment” for the island’s “separatist acts”. The exercises come three days after President Lai Ching-te took office, with a speech asking China to stop threatening Taiwan. Taiwan has said it’s “vigorously gathering intelligence” on the drills.
Nvidia crushes earnings expectations.
Nvidia stocks have soared again after the US-based chipmaker announced it had beaten revenue expectations in the previous quarter, raking in $26B instead of the projected $24.7B. Nvidia’s market cap is now around $2.3T, putting it on par with (for example) the entire stock market of Germany.
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South Korea unveils another chips package.
The presidential office has announced another $19B to boost South Korea’s semiconductor sector, with a focus on R&D and production. South Korea’s chips industry made up around 18% of total exports last month, and President Yoon has vowed to do everything possible to win the “war” over chips.
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UK sets general election date.
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has announced the UK will hold its general election on 4 July, surprising those expecting an autumn ballot. Sunak’s Conservative party is polling 20 points behind the Labour party.
TOP STORY
Macron lands in New Caledonia amid deadly unrest
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The president of France, Emmanuel Macron, has landed in New Caledonia with a senior entourage as unrest rocks the French overseas territory in the Pacific.
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Riots there have ground the territory to a halt: six people have died, hundreds have been injured, cars have been torched, and buildings looted. In response, Paris has declared a state of emergency, imposed a curfew, shut the airport, deployed hundreds more police, and banned TikTok, with mixed results.
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What’s this all about? Back on 15 May, lawmakers in Paris passed a constitutional amendment allowing French citizens to vote in New Caledonia’s elections if they’ve lived there a decade or more. The claimed rationale was to give those folks a say in how their adopted home is governed.
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But the move resurfaced some long-running grievances in the archipelago, particularly among its indigenous Kanak community who argue a) it further dilutes their influence, and b) it goes against the 1998 Nouméa Accord, in which voting was restricted to Kanaks and migrants living there before 1998.
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And that’s a priority for the Kanaks – they’re the territory’s original inhabitants and still its single largest ethnic group, though also now a minority (41%), with living standards and employment levels way below the territory’s average.
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And that in turn is fuelling a long-running debate: many (particularly among the Kanak community) want independence from France. Others (particularly those tracing their roots to France) want to remain. Three local referendums in 2018, 2020, and 2021 have failed to deliver independence, but they’ve also alienated many Kanak folks, who boycotted the last ballot.
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And from the perspective of President Macron, this all comes at a rough time:
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Nickel as a critical mineral
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France – like everyone else – has been scrambling to secure critical minerals to drive its energy transition and reduce its dependence on China. In fact, Macron himself just launched an inventory of France’s mineral resources in October, highlighting nickel in particular – it’s used for stainless steel and batteries.
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And it turns out New Caledonia is home to ~25% of the world’s nickel reserves and 6% of total global output. So prices have surged 7% since the unrest broke out.
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France as a world power
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As the world shifts, Macron has sought to double-down on France’s role as a global power: he’s launched an Indo-Pacific Strategy, sought a reset with former colonies in Africa, and is hosting this year’s Olympics, all while making waves with warnings that “Europe could die” and that it needs to find a “third way”.
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But part of Macron’s (and France’s) global claim rests on having a global footprint: there are a million French citizens and 3,000 troops across France’s Pacific territories. And yet now, after watching Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger eject French influence, the world is watching France seemingly wobble in the Pacific.
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Macron as a legacy
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Next month’s European parliamentary elections offer Macron a chance to entrench his vision for a strong Europe with France at its centre, before he terms-out of the Elysée in 2027. But recent crime in France and this turmoil in New Caledonia have been dominating the airwaves and eroding Macron’s message.
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So it’s any wonder why Macron has cleared his schedule, fuelled up the jet, volun-told senior ministers to join him, and hauled ass 16,000 km (10,000 miles) across the world.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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Of course, this all begs the question: will Macron’s visit work?
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If his 18 visits to Africa since 2017 are any guide, then no – French influence still waned there.
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But New Caledonia is still part of France, the current unrest has core political drivers, and Macron has core motivations to make this work.
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So at time of writing, he’s meeting key local leaders and pledging to listen with “respect” and restore calm “as soon as possible”, while also foreshadowing new announcements on “the future of New Caledonia”.
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What might those announcements look like? The story of the 1998 Nouméa Accord is telling: pro-Paris and pro-independence leaders backed it strongly at the time, though for polar-opposite reasons – separatists saw it as paving a 20-year path to independence, while loyalists saw it as offering a 20-year window to embrace a French future.
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So it united the territory but in a way that planted the seeds for today’s unrest. It’s hard to see pro-independence folks pursuing that path again.
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Also worth noting:
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Back on the other side of the world, Azerbaijan has organised a group of political movements from across the former French empire, who’ve issued a statement backing New Caledonia. Paris sees this move as a response to France’s support for Azerbaijan’s main rival, Armenia.
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Tourism has traditionally been New Caledonia’s second-largest sector. Neighbouring Australia and New Zealand have started repatriating their citizens from the territory in response to the unrest.
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Around 71% of New Caledonia’s Kanak population lives below the poverty line, with nearly 20% unemployed. The territory’s total population numbers around 300,000 people.
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After France colonised and annexed New Caledonia in the 19th century, it officially became a French overseas territory in 1946.
A MESSAGE FROM FACE OFF: THE US VS CHINA
A podcast about how the two nations, once friends, are now foes
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Hear why things are so complicated now. Host Jane Perlez, former New York Times Beijing bureau chief, talks with diplomats, spies, cultural superstars like Yo Yo Ma, and more, to understand why the dangers are so high, and why relations went awry.
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The most recent episode on Taiwan has just dropped, and some would say it’s the best of the season.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇵🇰 Pakistan: Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar has travelled to Kyrgyzstan after hundreds of locals there reportedly attacked buildings housing foreign students, many of whom were Pakistani. In response, Pakistan has arranged special flights repatriating more than 3,000 students.
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🇷🇺 Russia: Russia’s defence ministry has announced a unilateral change to the country’s maritime border in the Baltic Sea, before quietly deleting the decree without explanation. Lithuania has described the move as a “deliberate, targeted, escalatory provocation”, while Russian state media outlets have published anonymous, official denials.
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🇯🇵 Japan: The chief cabinet secretary has lodged complaints against China’s ambassador in Tokyo after the envoy warned that Japan’s people would be “dragged into the fire” if they support Taiwan’s independence. Japan doesn’t formally recognise Taiwan but engages with the self-ruling island through unofficial channels.
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🇻🇪 Venezuela: A US thinktank is claiming that Venezuela continues to expand its military infrastructure next to the border with oil-rich Guyana, despite agreeing to resolve their territorial dispute peacefully. Critics say Venezuela’s elections in July are motivating President Maduro to ramp up regional tensions to distract from his record at home.
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🇲🇦 Morocco: A China-based retail app called Temu is causing a stir in Morocco, where users have taken to social media with concerns over the platform’s impact on local retailers. Temu launched in Morocco earlier this year, and quickly skyrocketed to the top of the app store with its ultra-low prices.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what some folks are celebrating today, May 23
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Wine lovers celebrate 🥂 International Chardonnay Day for the world’s most planted white grape and most popular white wine.
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The 🇺🇳 UN marks ‘International Day to End Obstetric Fistula’ to raise awareness and funds for better-quality pregnancy care worldwide.
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And 🇯🇲 Jamaicans celebrate Labour Day weeks after everyone else, partly to replace an earlier Empire Day the country abolished in 1961.
MEME OF THE DAY
Another one from our Chief Meme Officer, Jeremy.
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It’s not easy to get a job in diplomacy. In the US, for example, around 20,000 candidates sit each foreign service exam, competing for maybe 500 spots. In India, a million candidates sit each exam (for all agencies), competing for around 30 seats at the foreign ministry. So it stands to reason that once you’re through the front door, there’s plenty of competition for those sweet, sweet promotions.
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That’s also why pretty much every foreign service has some variation of the same joke: how can you tell a diplomat’s seniority? Don’t worry, they’ll tell you.
DAILY POLL
Do you think Macron’s presence in New Caledonia will help calm the situation? |
Yesterday’s poll: Which top city name-dropped in the above Oxford Economics ranking would you live in?
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🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇺🇸 NYC (11%)
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🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🇬🇧 London (13%)
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🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ 🇫🇷 Grenoble (18%)
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🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇫🇯 Suva (9%)
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🇳🇿 Auckland (20%)
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🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Actually, this city is missing … (write in!) (12%)
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🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🌳 I’d never live in a city (14%)
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Your two cents:
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🇳🇿 S.C: “Relatively smaller population, less pollution and clutter but still meaningfully large enough city for entertainment and transportation. But when I would need a reprieve from the city life, there is quick access to the beautiful, great outdoors.”
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🇫🇷 C.B: “It is ideally situated at the mouth of the Alpine skiing network in Europe.”
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✍️ A.M: “Singapore. It provides strong global connectivity, safety, and diversity, and has strong governance.”
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🌳 C.D: “Been there; done that (cities). Ready for quiet country life…”
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Honourable mentions: Lisbon, Hamburg, Edinburgh, LA, Nashville, Brussels, Zurich, Mexico City, and many more. Thanks for writing in!
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