Number of the day

$1 billion 

That’s how much the Pentagon will get over the next four years for “offensive cyber operations”, with a focus on the Indo-Pacific (i.e. China).

Armenia and Azerbaijan

President Trump’s highly-anticipated announcement yesterday (Monday) ended up featuring: a) an EU-financed plan to keep sending Ukraine the US arms Kyiv needs to defend itself, plus b) a 50-day deadline for Putin to make peace or face secondary sanctions (ie, hitting China and India with mass tariffs if they buy Putin’s oil).

But Trump made another comment that caught our eye: during a quick victory lap around conflicts his administration has helped settle (DRC-Rwanda, India-Pakistan, and a possible Egypt-Ethiopia deal on Nile water flows), the US president mentioned this:

• “We just seem to have Armenia and Azerbaijan. It looks like that’s going to come to a conclusion, a successful conclusion.”

The headlines mostly skipped this snippet, or ran with ‘no breakthrough’, but there’ve been consistent rumours something’s happening, and it involves us all. So let’s dive in.

First, your quick refresh:

• After wars and skirmishes dating back to the collapse of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan mounted a lightning offensive in 2023 to seize Nagorno-Karabakh, long run by ethnic Armenians but internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan

• 100,000 locals (99% of the enclave’s population) fled for fear of ethnic cleansing

So Azerbaijan got the upper hand in that part of their feud.

But there’s still one more big piece to the puzzle before these two rivals sign the peace deal they broadly agreed back in March: the Zangezur Corridor.

Armenia doesn’t like that terminology, because it refers to a 32-km path running through Armenia’s own land. But Azerbaijan and its friends in Turkey have been pushing the idea:

• Azerbaijan wants unimpeded corridor access so it can connect to its own little territory beyond Armenia, called the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic

• And Turkey likes the idea, because that ‘corridor’ would also link to Turkey, boxing out rivals like Iran and Russia while uniting what it sees as the entire Turkic world (Turkey, Azerbaijan, and several of the ‘Stans speak Turkic languages).

But of course, Armenia feels uneasy watching its bigger neighbours casually discuss a chunk of its own land like it’s a ‘corridor’ to the lunch room down at the local DMV.

And other powers are weighing in too:

• Iran is in no shape to be calling the shots here, but it’s objected to what it sees as a rival Azerbaijani-Turkish attempt to cut Iran’s access to Europe

• Russia has previously supported the idea, but only if Russian border guards are manning it (something nobody in the region really welcomes at this point), and

• China also likes the idea, given it could link Beijing’s Belt & Road infrastructure to new ports on the Black Sea without a Moscow middle-man (though initial reports of China offering to build corridor infrastructure have mysteriously disappeared)

But you might’ve noticed one big player missing from that crowded chessboard: the US.

And that’s where things get intriguing: after Steve Witkoff’s surprise Baku appearance in March, top US envoy to Turkey, Tom Barrack, weighed in on Friday:

• "They are arguing over 32 kilometers of road… So what happens is that America steps in and says 'Okay, we’ll take it over. Give us the 32 kilometers of road on a hundred-year lease, and you can all share it’". 

It’s the first official confirmation that the US is open to an idea that’s long been in the rumour mill, building on earlier proposals from Turkey and the EU: US logistics (and possibly security) contractors managing the corridor and sharing the data with all parties.

Word is both Armenia and Azerbaijan are open to it, and while Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran will of course dislike any US presence in the region, it’s not really their call.

So, what next? This is far from a done deal.

The leaders of Armenia (Pashinyan) and Azerbaijan (Aliyev) just met in the UAE, and are due to meet in Dubai again later this month. And any pact will involve tough concessions for Armenia’s leader, who’s already facing protests over concessions ahead of elections next year. But he might see this corridor as a price he’s willing to pay for a final peace deal.

Intrigue’s Take

This is such a classic example of the way diplomacy can be about getting creative around wording or ideas that might just get everyone over the line. History is full of them:

• James Baker helped coin the term “all necessary means” that got world powers over the line for a UN resolution condemning Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait

• Sleepless nights produced the “transitioning away” from fossil fuels that got the world to sign the UAE’s COP declaration

• And two years of talks led to the “parity of esteem” between unionist and nationalist identities that ushered in the Good Friday Agreement.

But the other thing that grabs our attention here is Russia: both Armenia and Azerbaijan used to be members of Russia’s NATO (the Collective Security Treaty Organization, or CSTO). But Azerbaijan ditched the CSTO way back in 1999, and has been dissing Moscow since Putin’s forces downed an Azerbaijani jetliner then killed ethnic Azeris in a police raid.

As for Armenia, it froze its own CSTO membership last year, after Putin’s peacekeepers just watched as Azerbaijan launched its brief but bloody war for Nagorno in 2023.

So the notion of these two neighbours now doing a direct deal without Russia, and even over Russian objections? It’s a pretty clear indication of how far Moscow’s influence has faded in what the Kremlin would no doubt regard as its own sphere of influence.

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

Here’s what people around the world are googling

• 🇫🇷 French folks searched ‘fête du 14 juillet’ (14 July feast) as they celebrated their national day (Bastille Day) with festivities including a military parade. 

• Travellers in 🇱🇧 Lebanon looked up ‘Turkish Airlines’ as the carrier denied reports it had suspended flights following rumours Iraq had closed its airspace.

• And 🇰🇪 Kenyans googled ‘Epra fuel prices’ after the country’s regulator hiked prices citing recent attacks in the Straight of Hormuz.

Auction of the day

Does that embassy desk of yours need a new paperweight, and ideally one not kitted out with surveillance devices planted by local intelligence services? Well, you could buy the above rock — the biggest chunk of Mars on Earth — for a cool $4M when it goes up for auction in New York tomorrow (Wednesday).

An asteroid recently dislodged the rock from Mars, sending it hurtling into Niger’s remote Sahara Desert, where a lucky meteorite hunter found it in 2023.

Today’s poll

Yesterday’s poll: Do you think we'll have more or fewer states in 50 years from now?
(we were talking about countries, fyi)

➕ More, here's why… (67%)
📉 Fewer, here's why… (22%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (11%)

Your two cents:

• ➕ M: “Large states will break into multiple states to better represent their population, ecosystem and priorities.”

• 📉 P.K: “Climate change will drown some Pacific islands for sure in a 50 year time span.”

• ✍️ G.C: “Imperialism is making a come back after all, and countries like Ukraine, Canada, and Taiwan might get conquered. But on the other hand there's lots of secessionist movements all over the world.”