Rumour of the day

Kevin Warsh

The former Fed governor is President Trump’s rumoured Fed chair pick later today (Friday), sending the USD stronger given Warsh’s past hawkish vibes (though Trump has always prioritised lower rates). Rick Rieder (BlackRock’s global fixed income CIO) is another possibility given his mix of Wall Street cred and more dovish alignment.

Travel tricks

Any travel nerd will tell you the best time to fly is right after the holidays: lower prices, quieter lounges, fewer tantrums. World leader entourages are more likely to serve the tantrums than suffer them, but several are still travelling right now so let’s look at three: 

1. 🇬🇧 Starmer does China 

China’s year of the fire horse involves a rare, high-energy period of rapid change, which feels fair for 2026. With the world’s biggest economy (the US) pulling up the drawbridge, trade partners are now forming an orderly line to visit the world’s second-largest economy.

France’s Macron was back last month, then Canada’s Carney, Finland’s Orpo, and the UK’s Starmer, followed by Germany’s Merz in Feb then Trump in April. No cutting in line please.

For several (🇨🇦, 🇫🇮, 🇬🇧), it’s their first leader visit since 2017-18, so it’s intriguing to see how Western capitals frame this re-engagement: they avoid phrases like “turn the page”, or “reset the relationship” because of the way these imply forgetting the past (Tibet, Uyghurs) or ignoring the present (Taiwan, Hong Kong, South China Sea).

Anyway, Australia came up with “stabilising” ties, and the UK has gone with making them more “sophisticated” — each trying to reap the rewards while managing the risks. In Starmer’s case, this initial re-engagement has delivered wins that were coming anyway:

• Xi has already granted 30-day visa-free travel to ~50 countries in hopes it’ll revive his economy, though he’s again brandished it here like a special privilege, and

• Starmer finally approved China’s mega-embassy in London, not just because his spies can manage the risks, but because it’s a golden opportunity for his spies to recruit Beijing officials outside hyper-vigilant Beijing. Again, framed as a privilege.

The more significant side to all these Western visits might be what they say about long-running US efforts to get allies more aligned in countering China — maybe a more confrontational US has ended up pushing them closer to China instead.

And right on cue, President Trump just warned London and Ottawa that doing business with Beijing is “very dangerous”, prompting claims of hypocrisy (Trump has his own China deal) and impossibility (China is now the top trading partner for ~140 countries).

2. 🇸🇾 Al-Sharaa does Russia 

Syria’s Ahmed al-Sharaa just wrapped his second visit to Moscow since ending Syria’s half-century of brutal (and Russia-backed) Assad family rule. It suggests that, rather than boot Putin immediately, al-Sharaa still sees an opportunity in the leverage. So who wants what?

• Putin is anxious to secure the future of his bases in Syria’s west, particularly his sole warm water port at Tartus (beyond the one he’s occupying at Crimea), and

• Al-Sharaa’s rumoured shopping list includes Putin a) butting out of Syria’s Kurds, b) handing Assad over to stand trial (he’s living large in Moscow’s ritzy Rublyovka), and c) maybe even deploying forces to Syria’s southwest to deter Israel.

Putin now seems to have delivered the first prize, framing his withdrawal from Qamishli airbase in Syria’s Kurdish northeast as a gesture of goodwill, though realistically this was coming anyway because a) Putin couldn’t sustain this base, b) its initial rationale collapsed with Assad, and c) it’s an easy trade for his more critical bases in Syria’s west.

Meanwhile, al-Sharaa seems to have a clearer read on Putin than many Western leaders: in last month’s interview with Al Jazeera, he recounted his shock rebel offensive back in 2024, prompting a stern Russian warning not to advance any further, or else. Al-Sharaa’s forces ignored Putin’s warning and rapidly ousted Assad. Guess what Putin did? Nada.

3. 🇳🇬 Tinubu does Turkey 

Nigeria’s Tinubu has generated headlines in Turkey the old-fashioned way: by falling over. But it’s a significant visit for both sides, and not just because of their nine MOUs.

For Tinubu, Turkey offers security and investment partnerships with fewer strings than (say) Moscow’s mercenaries, Beijing’s extractors, or the West’s sermons and baggage.

As for Erdogan, Nigeria is the crown jewel in his Africa strategy as the continent’s biggest economy, most populous nation, and largest oil producer (~1.5m bpd).

And that Turkish Africa strategy? It’s part of Erdogan’s broader push onto centre stage, including via the world’s third-largest embassy network, the most extensive foreign passenger network across Africa, and now even matching Russia in arms exports there, while inking defence partnerships with Senegal, Morocco, Somalia, Ethiopia and beyond.

It’s a reminder that while the world might see Africa through an East vs West race, the continent’s dark horse might just be the straddler famous for playing it both ways.

Intrigue’s Take

If we had to (and we really do) draw some common themes from the three trips above, maybe it’s this: so much of diplomacy is about figuring out how to gift-wrap what you were doing anyway, present it as a grand concession, then call it leverage:

• Putin “giving up” the base he couldn’t hold

• Xi “gifting” the visa-free access fewer Westerners want, and

• Erdogan “donating” the security that’s his backdoor for regional influence.

There’s also a lesson in the absolute versus the relative — none of these leaders seem to be talking about shared values. Rather, there’s the implication maybe Turkey is a better option than the West, or maybe Russia is better down south than out, or maybe Xi is more predictable than Trump, all culminating in perhaps the biggest implication of them all: notwithstanding any individual nation’s sins, in 2026 maybe it’s better to just have options.

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

Some weekend reccs from Team Intrigue!

• Watch: Deaf President Now! about the world’s only signing university in DC, and its 1980s fight for a deaf university president.

• Read: How traditional Chinese medicine practitioners are increasingly using AI to both standardise remedies and reach more patients.

• Learn: The basic rules of cricket before the T20 Men’s World Cup kicks off in India and Sri Lanka next week.

Royal deadline of the day

If you’ve ever travelled to Thailand, you’ll have seen pics of the queen mother (Sirikit) and her son the king (Vajiralongkorn). While the king is known for (say) spending Covid lock-down in a lavish Bavarian hotel with a vast harem, his mother has long been beloved.

So when she passed away last October aged 93, that kicked off a mourning period across Thailand, with everyone encouraged to wear subdued colours for 90 days, or a full year if you’re a government employee (surely less of a sartorial stretch for most bureaucrats).

Anyway, that initial 90-day period has now ended, with life mostly returning to normal, though best not to ask too many questions given the kingdom’s strict lèse-majesté laws, which could land you 3-15 years in the slammer for defaming or insulting the monarch.

Friday quiz

Have you been paying attention to this week’s news?