Number of the day

43% 

That’s the proportion of China’s next generation of Communist Party leaders with doctorates, according to a new report from the Asia Society Policy Institute.

Words of warning

Speeches are usually meant to congratulate, celebrate, or commemorate.

Unless you’re the boss of Britain’s famed MI6 intelligence agency, Blaise Metreweli, who used her highly-anticipated speech on Monday to issue a pretty grim wake-up call.

Here’s what she had to say…

• “The front line is everywhere” 

Metreweli, who emerged from the shadows to lead MI6 in October, argued the UK (and pretty much everyone else) now faces threats from all sides: “Online, on our streets, in our supply chains, in the minds and on the screens of our citizens.” 

The bottom line? Our world’s connectivity — technological, financial, logistical, social — is metastasising from asset to liability. 

• “Power itself is becoming more diffuse, more unpredictable”

Metreweli focussed heavily on tech, sprinkling 18 references to the familiar risks of a free world moving too fast, losing its edge, or grappling with “science-fiction-like tools” — that last one caught our attention given Metreweli last served as MI6’s infamous tech boss, ‘Q’.

But it was really her take on power that stood out: way back in the olden days (aka 1998), you might call the police or your government for help, because that’s where the power sat.

These days? Metreweli warns that power “is shifting from states to corporations, and sometimes to individuals”, as our governments become reliant on a new tech broligarchy playing by its own rules and in pursuit of its own priorities.

• “We all continue to face the menace of an aggressive, expansionist and revisionist Russia”

Metreweli also focuses on Russia, warning it’s “seeking to subjugate Ukraine and harass NATO”, and is “testing us in the grey zone with tactics that are just below the threshold of war” — cyberattacks, disinformation, arson, sabotage, and drone airport stunts.

It’s intriguing for two reasons: first, she ditches the classic spymaster’s horizon-scan, instead drilling down on her top threat. But second, her description of that threat clashes not just with Moscow’s rhetoric, but even DC’s: maybe the root cause isn’t NATO or Ukraine or lousy negotiators, but an aggressive, expansionist, and revisionist Russia.

• “China will be a central part of the global transformation”

Metreweli’s China shout is interesting not just for its brevity (one line) but also its breeziness, just pledging to keep London in the loop on the implications of Beijing’s rise.

It’s a notch down from her predecessor’s warning of “an increasingly assertive China which sometimes competes with our interests”, but this seems less about any softening, and more a reflection of her decision to focus on the UK’s immediate threat, Russia.

• “MI6’s inbuilt strength is our partners and our people”

It’s the kind of platitude you might see on KPMG’s campus recruitment PowerPoint, but Metreweli used it to answer a question on how she plans to confront her long and grim list: “together, we integrate our diverse talent, data and tools to meet the threat”.

So even (especially?) in a fragmenting world, you keep your enemies close and your friends closer.

Intrigue’s Take

It’s worth reflecting on why the UK’s new spymaster opted to ditch the classic horizon scan here: maybe it’s not stylistic flair, or a new speechwriter, or Barry from marketing.

Rather, maybe it’s because the threat is no longer over the horizon at all. Instead, it’s…

• in the harbour (the Yantar spy ship re-entered British waters last month)

• in the skies (drones buzzing UK bases, or lasering RAF pilots), and even…

• in the streets (arson targeting Ukraine-linked warehouses and industry).

And interestingly, while Metreweli issued this wake-up call, her military counterpart with the incredibly British name of Sir Richard Knighton used his own Monday speech to argue what should come next: “Our objective must be to avoid war. And […] while the price of peace may be rising, the cost of strong deterrence is still far, far less than the cost of war.”

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

The Intrigue jobs board 💼

• Data Scientist @ Schmidt Family Foundation in the US

• Deputy Group Corporate Secretary @ Pictet in Geneva

• Associate Directorate, Political Science @ Tec de Monterrey in Mexico

• Interim Community Marketing, Impact Coordinator @ Patagonia in Brunico

Flag of the day

Long-time Intriguers will recall we examined this curious vexillological specimen years ago, but we just can’t get it out of our mind: how many hamstrings were pulled in the making of this flag? We think three.

Now, let’s give you some hints on the banner’s island home…

• The above ‘trinacria’ shape represents the land’s three capes

• Those three capes are called Pelorus, Passero, and Lilibeo, and…

• The wheat-clad Medusa in the middle is an ode to the island’s fertility.

Any guesses?

Yep, it’s the flag of Sicily. And for colours, visuals, and sheer flexibility, it gets a cool 9.7/10.

Today’s poll

Yesterday’s poll: Do you think Pax Silica will work?

💽 Yes, they all want to diversify away from China (43%)
🔪 Nope, too many cooks in the kitchen (54%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)

Your two cents:

• 🔪 M.S: “Things rarely stay focused on one goal. There will be so many side projects and wrangling between ‘alignees’, consensus on core goals will be sacrificed for political leverage.”

• 💽 H: “It’s got a chance because wariness of China’s long term goals may overcome stress and mutual suspicion amongst the players.”

• ✍️ J.B: “US brokership isn't nearly as attractive (or effective) as it once was. Who can trust the Americans to keep their word in this day and age?”